2021年经济学人 美国的通胀预期到底有多稳固?(1)

Inflation expectations

通胀预期

A different kind of fluke

另一种锚

Just how anchored are America's inflation expectations

美国的通胀预期有多稳固

Since democrats¹ proposed a $1.9trn fiscal² stimulus³ in January, hawks⁴ have warned that America's economy might overheat. With cheques for $1,400 now landing in bank accounts, President Joe Biden reportedly considering spending another $3trn on infrastructure⁵ and the Federal Reserve showing no sign of putting the brakes on the rebound⁶ from the pandemic, the predictions of impending⁷ doom⁸ are getting louder. The latest was delivered by Larry Summers, a former treasury⁹ secretary, on March 20th. Mr Summers sees it as more likely than not that the economy will suffer either from an inflation surge or from the crushing effects of higher interest rates. America, he says, has the least responsible economic policy in 40 years.

自民主党1月份提出1.9万亿美元的财政刺激方案以来，鹰派就警告美国经济可能过热。现在每人1400美元的支票陆续到账，据称总统拜登正在考虑再推出三万亿美元的基建计划，而美联储也没有释放出要对疫情后的经济反弹踩刹车的信号，预测末日即将降临的声音越来越响亮。最近发声的是前财政部长拉里萨默斯，他在3月20日预测经济有过半概率要承受通胀飙升，或利率上升带来的破坏效应。他说，美国现在施行的是40年来最不负责任的经济政策。

The worst-case scenario¹⁰ painted by inflation hawks can be broken into stages. First, inflation will soon rise mechanically as numbers from the spring of 2020, when the economy and commodity prices slumped¹¹, fall out of comparisons with a year earlier. On that everyone agrees.

通胀鹰派所描绘的最坏情况可以分为几个阶段。首先，通胀自然很快就会上升，因为2020年春季经济下滑、大宗商品价格暴跌，导致经济数据同比大幅下降。对于这一点各方并无异议。

The next phase is a second wave of inflation as spending by newly vaccinated-consumers rebounds¹² from the pandemic faster than production can keep up. Even stimulus advocates typically admit that overheating is a risk, and it would be more likely should more deficit¹³ spending pass. Mr Biden may unveil the spending side of his infrastructure bill alongside his preliminary annual budget proposals for government departments, which are due next week. Whereas some of any Biden infrastructure bill may be paid for by raising taxes, it seems unlikely that Congress would raise $3trn this way, rather than relying on at least some extra borrowing.

第二阶段，接种了疫苗的消费者的支出在疫情后迅速反弹，而生产无法跟上，就会出现第二波通胀。就连刺激措施的拥护者一般也都承认过热是一种风险，而如果国会通过更多赤字支出提案，过热的几率就更大。拜登将于下周宣布政府部门的初步财年预算案，届时可能会公布他的基建刺激提案的支出安排。尽管这项基建提案中的一部分资金可能会通过提高税收来筹措，但国会似乎不太可能完全以这种方式筹集全部三万亿美元，而至少会依靠一些额外借债。

It is the last stage of the doomsday timeline that is most controversial, in which temporary inflation turns permanent as the public's inflation expectations rise and become self-fulfilling. Workers, anticipating a higher cost of living, demand higher pay; forward-thinking firms raise prices. The result would be a return to the 5% plus inflation of the late 1960s, or perhaps even the 10%-plus rates of the 1970s.

最具争议的是末日时间表的第三阶段:随着公众的通胀预期上升并开始自我应验，暂时的通胀将成为长期现象。预期生活成本升高的工人将要求加工资；有前瞻的公司会提高产品价格。结果是通胀可能将恢复到上世纪60年代后期5％以上的水平，或者甚至是70年代10％以上的水平。

In recent decades the grip of the Fed on inflation expectations seemed ironclad. Even when in 2019 unemployment plumbed¹⁴ depths not seen since the 1960s, inflation expectations did not stir very much. In theory that makes all inflation surprises temporary. "Having (inflation expectations) anchored at 2% is what gives us the ability to push hard when the economy's really weak," said Jerome Powell, the Fed's chairman, on March 17th.

近几十年来，美联储似乎一直紧紧控制着通胀预期。即使在2019年失业率下降到60年代以来的最低水平时，通胀预期也没有太大波动。从理论上讲，这使得通胀的所有意外变化都只是暂时的。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）3月17日说:“把（通胀预期）锚定在2％，那么到了经济真正疲软的时候我们才有空间使力。”

1 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

3 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

4 hawks   

鹰( hawk的名词复数 )； 鹰派人物，主战派人物

参考例句：

• Two hawks were hover ing overhead. 两只鹰在头顶盘旋。
• Both hawks and doves have expanded their conditions for ending the war. 鹰派和鸽派都充分阐明了各自的停战条件。

5 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

6 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

7 impending   

a.imminent, about to come or happen

参考例句：

• Against a background of impending famine, heavy fighting took place. 即将发生饥荒之时，严重的战乱爆发了。
• The king convoke parliament to cope with the impending danger. 国王召开国会以应付迫近眉睫的危险。

8 doom   

n.厄运，劫数；v.注定，命定

参考例句：

• The report on our economic situation is full of doom and gloom.这份关于我们经济状况的报告充满了令人绝望和沮丧的调子。
• The dictator met his doom after ten years of rule.独裁者统治了十年终于完蛋了。

9 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

10 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

11 slumped   

大幅度下降，暴跌( slump的过去式和过去分词 )； 沉重或突然地落下[倒下]

参考例句：

• Sales have slumped this year. 今年销售量锐减。
• The driver was slumped exhausted over the wheel. 司机伏在方向盘上，疲惫得睡着了。

12 rebounds   

反弹球( rebound的名词复数 )； 回弹球； 抢断篮板球； 复兴

参考例句：

• V is the velocity after the gas particle rebounds from the wall. V是粒子从壁上弹开后的速度。
• In the former case, the first body rebounds with practically its original velocity. 在前一种情况下，第一个物体实际上以原来的速度弹回。

13 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

14 plumbed   

v.经历( plumb的过去式和过去分词 )；探究；用铅垂线校正；用铅锤测量

参考例句：

• Magda had plumbed her own heart for answers. 玛格达在自己心中搜寻答案。 来自辞典例句
• In the sub-zero weather, their exhausts plumbed white in the grey streets. 在严寒天气，他们的排气管在灰色的街道上吐着缕缕白烟。 来自辞典例句