Biden is promising crippling sanctions on Russia if it invades Ukraine

Biden is promising¹ crippling sanctions on Russia if it invades Ukraine

Transcript²

What exactly would those sanctions look like? NPR's Leila Fadel talks to Daleep Singh, deputy national security adviser³ for international economics, about what the U.S. can do.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

When President Biden met with Chancellor⁴ Olaf Scholz in the White House yesterday, the German leader said the two countries were, quote, "absolutely united" on imposing⁵ sanctions on Russia should it invade Ukraine. But are they? As we just heard, after that meeting, Biden vowed⁶ that if Russia invades, they would stop Nord Stream 2, a gas pipeline⁷ that would link Russia and Germany. But Germany's chancellor did not commit to that. Let's talk this through with Daleep Singh, the deputy national security adviser for international economics for the Biden administration. He was in that meeting yesterday, and he joins us now. Good morning.

DALEEP SINGH: Good morning, Leila.

FADEL: So President Biden was quite clear that a Russian invasion would end this pipeline, but is that really up to him? How will the U.S. persuade Germany to halt its plans for Nord Stream 2?

SINGH: Yeah, you're right. The president was definitive⁸. He said, as your listeners just heard, if Russia invades Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 will not become operational. Why did he say that? Well, we have options, and Germany has options. And when the president's answer was put to Chancellor Scholz, he said there's no daylight between Germany and the United States, and that we'll take all necessary steps together in a united and decisive fashion. And so I think, you know, a reasonable - a very reasonable conclusion from that press conference is that whatever is necessary to prevent Nord Stream 2 from becoming operational in the event of an invasion, it would be done.

FADEL: But Germany does have a lot of dependency on Russia for its energy needs. Did Scholz indicate that Germany would be willing not to approve the now completed pipeline?

SINGH: No. Look, I mean, I think the discussion we had, first of all, was to recognize that if Russia decides to weaponize its supply of natural gas or crude oil, it wouldn't be without consequences to the Russian economy. Remember, Russia has a one-dimensional economy. It needs oil and gas revenues at least as much as Europe needs its energy supply. Two-thirds of Russia's export revenues come from oil and gas. That's about half of Russia's budget revenues. So this is far from checkmate for Putin. This is a co-dependency.

But having said that, you know, look, if Russia decides to weaponize energy supplies, particularly gas through Ukraine, we've been working very closely with Germany and with Europe to surge capacity from other parts of the world - from Europe, from North Africa, the Middle East and Asia - and we think we're prepared to compensate⁹ for any shortfalls that might materialize.

FADEL: Now, let's talk about the measures the U.S. and Western allies might take if Russia were to invade. The U.S. has repeatedly threatened sanctions. So what exactly would sanctions look like - specific measures the U.S. is considering taking against Russia if it invades?

SINGH: Yeah. Well, the first thing I should say, Leila, is that our goal, of course, is for Europe to remain at peace and to defend the principle that you can't redraw borders or undermine the free will of a sovereign nation by force. But you can't achieve those goals unless you demonstrate resolve. So that's why we've said if Russia sends a troop or tank across the border, we're prepared to impose the most severe sanctions ever levied¹⁰ against Russia, and so are our allies and partners.

And maybe I can explain that by comparing our approach now to the past. I was at Treasury¹¹ in 2014 and 2015. And back then, we moved gradually up the sanctions escalation¹² ladder. And the reason why is we'd never before imposed sanctions on an economy as large and complex as Russia. So we moved in measured steps because of the unknown. We've learned a lot since 2014. We know where Russia's pressure points are. We know where we produce or supply something that Russia needs and can't get from anywhere else. So that's why instead of taking a gradualist approach, we're prepared to start with sanctions at the top of our escalation ladder and stay there. And that means we're prepared to target Russia's largest financial institutions, we're prepared to impose the most severe measures on those institutions and we're prepared to manage any unwanted spillovers.

FADEL: So does that mean the Biden administration is looking to cut Moscow out of the SWIFT financial system, isolate¹³ them in that way?

SINGH: Well, look, I'm not going to get into the specifics of our measures. Look, the decision of whether Russia invades Ukraine - it's up to Putin and, likely, Putin alone. And so we're prepared for any scenario¹⁴ that could unfold. And that means no option is off the table, even the most severe measures, because we don't know what's on the table for Putin. SWIFT is just one of those severe measures. You can think of it as the Gmail of global banking¹⁵. It's how banks make or receive payments from other banks. About 11,000 banks are part of the SWIFT network, and Russia has aspirations¹⁶ to develop an alternative to SWIFT, but only about 12 foreign banks are actually part of that network and only one Chinese bank. So if a country is cut off from SWIFT, it's de facto removed from the global financial system, full stop.

FADEL: Well, let me ask you - I know you don't want to get into specifics, but in 2014, when this was threatened, Russia considered it equivalent to a declaration of war. Could this ultimately make matters worse if you engaged from the top of that scale?

SINGH: Well, look, I mean, I - this is a severe measure, no question about it. But, as I said, we're preparing for any scenario that might unfold. That's - the scenarios¹⁷ that unfold are ultimately based on decisions that Putin will make. And so we just have to have all of our options prepared. And we should - we need to be ready to respond in any scenario. Of course, we don't want to have to use the most severe sanctions, but we also don't want there to be unchecked aggression¹⁸ in the heart of Europe.

FADEL: Yeah.

SINGH: So that's the situation we're in.

FADEL: Now, President Biden has been working with NATO allies to ensure a united front in response to Russian aggression. How important is European cooperation in imposing meaningful sanctions on Russia?

SINGH: Oh, it's critically important - No. 1 in terms of the direct impact. As I said, the logic¹⁹ of our sanctions and our export controls is that we design or produce goods or services that Russia needs and can't supply from anywhere else, either domestically or from other foreign suppliers. So when you combine the U.S. and Europe, you're talking about the vast majority of the global capital markets and the most sophisticated technologies that are out there - semiconductors²⁰, quantum, biotech, AI. And so, look, it's important in terms of direct impact. It's important in terms of the indirect impact, this signaling that we're together, unified²¹ to defend core international norms of sovereignty and territorial²² integrity. And that's a force multiplier.

FADEL: Is Putin himself a possible target of sanctions if Russia invades?

SINGH: You know, here, I just would let the president's words stand for themselves, and I would repeat that no option is off the table.

FADEL: Daleep Singh serves as deputy national security adviser for international economics. Thank you so much for your time.

SINGH: Thank you.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

1 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

4 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

5 imposing   

adj.使人难忘的，壮丽的，堂皇的，雄伟的

参考例句：

• The fortress is an imposing building.这座城堡是一座宏伟的建筑。
• He has lost his imposing appearance.他已失去堂堂仪表。

6 vowed   

起誓，发誓（vow的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• He vowed quite solemnly that he would carry out his promise. 他非常庄严地发誓要实现他的诺言。
• I vowed to do more of the cooking myself. 我发誓自己要多动手做饭。

7 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

8 definitive   

adj.确切的，权威性的；最后的，决定性的

参考例句：

• This book is the definitive guide to world cuisine.这本书是世界美食的权威指南。
• No one has come up with a definitive answer as to why this should be so.至于为什么该这样，还没有人给出明确的答复。

9 compensate   

vt.补偿，赔偿；酬报 vi.弥补；补偿；抵消

参考例句：

• She used her good looks to compensate her lack of intelligence. 她利用她漂亮的外表来弥补智力的不足。
• Nothing can compensate for the loss of one's health. 一个人失去了键康是不可弥补的。

10 levied   

征（兵）( levy的过去式和过去分词 )； 索取； 发动（战争）； 征税

参考例句：

• Taxes should be levied more on the rich than on the poor. 向富人征收的税应该比穷人的多。
• Heavy fines were levied on motoring offenders. 违规驾车者会遭到重罚。

11 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

12 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

13 isolate   

vt.使孤立，隔离

参考例句：

• Do not isolate yourself from others.不要把自己孤立起来。
• We should never isolate ourselves from the masses.我们永远不能脱离群众。

14 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

15 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

16 aspirations   

强烈的愿望( aspiration的名词复数 )； 志向； 发送气音； 发 h 音

参考例句：

• I didn't realize you had political aspirations. 我没有意识到你有政治上的抱负。
• The new treaty embodies the aspirations of most nonaligned countries. 新条约体现了大多数不结盟国家的愿望。

17 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

18 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。

19 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

20 semiconductors   

n.半导体( semiconductor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Crystals may be insulators, semiconductors, or conductors. 晶体可以是绝缘体，半导体，或导体。 来自辞典例句
• Semiconductors containing such impurities are called p-type semiconductors. 含有这类杂质的半导体叫做P型半导体。 来自辞典例句

21 unified   

(unify 的过去式和过去分词)； 统一的； 统一标准的； 一元化的

参考例句：

• The teacher unified the answer of her pupil with hers. 老师核对了学生的答案。
• The First Emperor of Qin unified China in 221 B.C. 秦始皇于公元前221年统一中国。

22 territorial   

adj.领土的，领地的

参考例句：

• The country is fighting to preserve its territorial integrity.该国在为保持领土的完整而进行斗争。
• They were not allowed to fish in our territorial waters.不允许他们在我国领海捕鱼。