U.S. intelligence didn't stop the invasion of Ukraine, but it had positive effects

U.S. intelligence didn't stop the invasion of Ukraine, but it had positive effects

Transcript¹

President Biden says the Russian invasion of Ukraine is unfolding largely as predicted. Accurate U.S. intelligence didn't prevent the attack, but it did counter Russian disinformation.

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Ukraine needs its people to fight. No need for military training - if you have a passport, they'll give you a gun. And officials say Ukrainians should use Molotov cocktails² if need be. But does Ukraine have the military strength to prevent Russian forces from taking over the country, specifically the capital city of Kyiv? U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was asked about that possibility on CBS Evening News yesterday.

(SOUNDBITE OF TV SHOW, "CBS EVENING NEWS WITH NORAH O'DONNELL")

ANTONY BLINKEN: It's certainly under threat. And it could well be under siege. This is the opening salvo of a massive invasion. And we see this continuing and threatening Kyiv and threatening other major cities in Ukraine.

MARTIN: President Biden said yesterday this invasion is unfolding largely as the U.S. had predicted. But accurate U.S. intelligence, some of it shared publicly, did not prevent the Russian attack. So what good did it do? For the next few minutes, we're going to talk about the primary tools the U.S. has at its disposal to help stop Russia's war on Ukraine. We're going to start with NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre. Good morning, Greg.

GREG MYRE, BYLINE³: Hi. Good morning, Rachel.

MARTIN: Before we talk about big American strategy in this, just get us up to speed on what is happening on the ground right now.

MYRE: Sure. Russian missiles are pounding the capital, Kyiv. It's clear Russian troops are getting close to the city. They've been coming down from Belarus, which is less than 100 miles to the north. The capital is clearly a Russian priority. And in fact, Rachel, in just in the last hour or so, we're seeing multiple media reports and social media reports of gun battles breaking out on the edge of the city. Earlier today, President Zelenskyy posted a video. He was unshaven and in an olive T-shirt. He said 137 Ukrainians have been killed. He said he's target No. 1 for the Russians. And the big question is, how long can Zelenskyy and his government hold out? And I just want to drive home how extraordinary this is. Zelenskyy is a democratically elected leader of one of Europe's biggest countries. And he's at risk of capture or being killed by an invading Russian army.

MARTIN: So let's talk about the intelligence. As I said earlier, the U.S. has been pretty spot-on about how this was going to all go down, which stands in sharp contrast, we should say, to the - say, the lead up to the Iraq War or the exodus⁴ from Afghanistan. But how significant is this since the intelligence didn't stop Vladimir Putin from going ahead?

MYRE: Yeah. I mean, that's a good point, Rachel. Now, the backstory is CIA Director William Burns went to Russia last November to tell the Russians what the U.S. was already seeing about a potential invasion. The hope, of course, was that it would deter⁵ Vladimir Putin. It obviously didn't. Still, it probably was not in Putin's expectations that his plans would be broadcast to the world. And that certainly had to factor into his thinking. Now, I spoke⁶ about this with John Sipher, an ex-CIA officer who served in Russia. He supports this effort to share intelligence publicly, says that opinion is pretty widely shared with other ex-intelligence officials. And while it didn't stop Putin, it did counter the Russian disinformation narrative⁷, this notion that Ukraine was somehow threatening Russia. He says that sharing the intelligence did help establish a factual narrative that Western governments and their publics could work with.

JOHN SIPHER: It's trying to get information out on what they know the Russians are up to, to try to tell both publics in Europe and the United States, here is the kind of stuff we can expect from Russia. Here's their game plan. They try to create sort of false stories. They try to create false narratives⁸.

MYRE: And as a result, he says, the NATO countries have been unified⁹. We've seen a largely unified response politically and on issues like sanctions.

MARTIN: So the U.S. and NATO have been clear - they're not going to send troops on the ground into Ukraine. So I mean, we know about the sanctions. But what else are they doing in this moment?

MYRE: Well, there's an emergency NATO summit today in Brussels. Biden said he's sending 7,000 more U.S. troops to Europe as part of an effort to reassure¹⁰ NATO allies. He - Biden has also told Zelenskyy that the U.S. could provide humanitarian¹¹ aid. U.S. troops are ready to help if refugees do come out. And also, if Russia does take over and occupy Ukraine, the CIA could certainly play a role in assisting a Ukrainian insurgency¹², the kind of thing the agency has done many times in the past.

MARTIN: Although, to varying degrees of success, we should note. NPR's Greg Myre. Thank you so much.

MYRE: My pleasure.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 cocktails   

n.鸡尾酒( cocktail的名词复数 )；餐前开胃菜；混合物

参考例句：

• Come about 4 o'clock. We'll have cocktails and grill steaks. 请四点钟左右来，我们喝鸡尾酒，吃烤牛排。 来自辞典例句
• Cocktails were a nasty American habit. 喝鸡尾酒是讨厌的美国习惯。 来自辞典例句

3 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

4 exodus   

v.大批离去，成群外出

参考例句：

• The medical system is facing collapse because of an exodus of doctors.由于医生大批离去，医疗系统面临崩溃。
• Man's great challenge at this moment is to prevent his exodus from this planet.人在当前所遇到的最大挑战，就是要防止人从这个星球上消失。

5 deter   

vt.阻止，使不敢，吓住

参考例句：

• Failure did not deter us from trying it again.失败并没有能阻挡我们再次进行试验。
• Dogs can deter unwelcome intruders.狗能够阻拦不受欢迎的闯入者。

6 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

7 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

8 narratives   

记叙文( narrative的名词复数 )； 故事； 叙述； 叙述部分

参考例句：

• Marriage, which has been the bourne of so many narratives, is still a great beginning. 结婚一向是许多小说的终点，然而也是一个伟大的开始。
• This is one of the narratives that children are fond of. 这是孩子们喜欢的故事之一。

9 unified   

(unify 的过去式和过去分词)； 统一的； 统一标准的； 一元化的

参考例句：

• The teacher unified the answer of her pupil with hers. 老师核对了学生的答案。
• The First Emperor of Qin unified China in 221 B.C. 秦始皇于公元前221年统一中国。

10 reassure   

v.使放心，使消除疑虑

参考例句：

• This seemed to reassure him and he continued more confidently.这似乎使他放心一点，于是他更有信心地继续说了下去。
• The airline tried to reassure the customers that the planes were safe.航空公司尽力让乘客相信飞机是安全的。

11 humanitarian   

n.人道主义者，博爱者，基督凡人论者

参考例句：

• She has many humanitarian interests and contributes a lot to them.她拥有很多慈善事业，并作了很大的贡献。
• The British government has now suspended humanitarian aid to the area.英国政府现已暂停对这一地区的人道主义援助。

12 insurgency   

n.起义；暴动；叛变

参考例句：

• And as in China, unrest and even insurgency are widespread. 而在中国，动乱甚至暴乱都普遍存在。 来自互联网
• Dr Zyphur is part an insurgency against this idea. 塞弗博士是这一观点逆流的一部分。 来自互联网