2006年NPR美国国家公共电台五月-Forecasters Call for Another Busy Hurrica

Michelle Norris: From NPR News, this is All Things Considered. I'm Michelle Norris.

Melissa Block: And I'm Melissa Block.

Melissa Block: Government weather forecasters are calling for another busy hurricane season in the Atlantic. Here is what Conrad Lautenbacher said at a press conference today in Miami. He runs the National Oceanic & Atmospheric¹ Administration² or NOAA.

Conrad Lautenbacher: NOAA is predicting an above normal hurricane season with 13 to 16 named storms, of which 8 to 10 are predicted to become hurricanes, and 4 to 6 of those hurricanes are predicted to become major at Category 3 strength or higher.

Melissa Block: That's about twice the usual amount of storm activity. NPR's Jon Hamilton explains why forecasters are expecting so many storms this year.

Jon Hamilton: On average, the Atlantic produces about 6 hurricanes during the season, which runs from June 1st through the end of November. Some years have only a couple, last year there were 15, including Katrina. Forecasters say they're basing their forecasts for this year on several factors: One is something called wind shear³. It is the change in the speed and direction of wind at different altitudes. And Jerry Bell of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says it's critical.

Jerry Bell: Hurricanes require low wind shear in order to form, so by being able to predict these wind patterns, we can then predict, like this year, with high confidence, that the wind shear will be quite low, and therefore likely to produce a very active hurricane season.

Jon hamilton: Another factor is the water temperature across the Atlantic Ocean. Warm water fuels hurricanes; cool water tends to slow them down. David Adamec is an oceanographer with NASA who uses satellite data to track changes in ocean temperatures. He says the news this year isn't all bad.

David Adamec: Between Africa and to the West Indies is about one degree Fahrenheit⁴ or so warmer than normal, that's going to mean that the hurricanes are gonna have an easier time . But off the east coast of the US, it's really a mixed bag, just for right now. It's actually about normal or a little bit cooler than normal.

Jon Hamilton: Oddly⁵, water temperatures in the Pacific can also affect hurricanes in the Atlantic. Last year Pacific waters near the equator⁶ were colder than normal, a condition called La Nina. That shifts⁷ the jet⁸ stream which flows from west to east over North America in a way that favors hurricanes. But Adamec says satellite data suggest that La Nina won't be a problem this year.

David Adamec: We have about as normal conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean as you can get right now, which means at least for this year, La Nina will not be playing a factor in the number of hurricanes or in the hurricane generation environment.

Jon Hamilton: All this science has helped forecasters get a lot better at predicting which hurricane seasons will be busy and which ones won't . But there's still a lot of uncertainty⁹ about exactly how many storms will occur or where they will land. A well-known forecasting team at Colorado State University agrees with NOAA's forecast for this season. But Philip Klotzbach says that last year both teams were pretty far off the mark.

Philip Klotzbach: We predicted a very active hurricane season, unfortunately we didn't quite predict the magnitude¹⁰ of the season. But we were calling for activity about, say, 70% above an average season, and we got about 170% above an average season.

Jon Hamilton: NOAA predicted 9 hurricanes and got 15. But Max Mayfield of the National Hurricane Center says even a perfect forecast is of limited value to most people.

Max Mayfield: It's not all about the numbers, it just takes that one hurricane over your house to make for a bad year.

Jon Hamilton: Forecasters at the hurricane center learned¹¹ that the hard way, in 1992, Hurricane Andrew badly damaged the hurricane center's old home in Coral Gables, it has since moved to a bunker-like structure in Miami. Mayfield says that even if this year turns out to be a quiet one, the coming years probably won't be.

Max Mayfield: We're in this very active period for major hurricanes that may last at least another 10 or 20 years. That's not good news, and the message is very clear, we need to be prepared.

Jon Hamilton: That means among other things being ready to evacuate¹² when forecaster say a big storm is on the way.

Jon Hamilton: Jon Hamilton, NPR News.

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Word in NPR
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a mixed bag: something that includes both good and bad parts; 杂集，混合体，大杂烩
jet stream: a current of very strong winds high above the Earth's surface; 急流；喷气流

1 atmospheric   

adj.大气的，空气的；大气层的；大气所引起的

参考例句：

• Sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation are strongly coupled.海洋表面温度与大气环流是密切相关的。
• Clouds return radiant energy to the surface primarily via the atmospheric window.云主要通过大气窗区向地表辐射能量。

2 administration   

n.经营，管理；行政，行政机关，管理部门

参考例句：

• Who is in charge of the administration of your company?你们公司的行政工作由谁负责？
• The teachers are responsible to the school administration.教师向学校行政负责。

3 shear   

n.修剪，剪下的东西，羊的一岁；vt.剪掉，割，剥夺；vi.修剪，切割，剥夺，穿越

参考例句：

• Every spring they shear off the sheep's wool and sell it.每年春天他们都要剪下羊毛去卖。
• In the Hebrides they shear their sheep later than anywhere else.在赫伯里兹，剪羊毛的时间比其他任何地方都要晚。

4 Fahrenheit   

n./adj.华氏温度；华氏温度计(的)

参考例句：

• He was asked for the boiling point of water in Fahrenheit.他被问到水的沸点是华氏多少度。
• The thermometer reads 80 degrees Fahrenheit.寒暑表指出华氏80度。

5 oddly   

adv.奇怪地，古怪地；奇妙地；额外地，附加地；零碎地，单数地oddly enough的变体

参考例句：

• She's been behaving very oddly lately. 她最近行为极其反常。
• His Indian robes contrasted oddly with his fluent English. 他的印度长袍与他流利的英语形成奇特的对照。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

6 equator   

n.赤道，（平分球形物体的面的）圆

参考例句：

• Singapore is near the equator.新加坡位于赤道附近。
• The United States is north of the equator.美国位于赤道以北。

7 shifts   

n.转换( shift的名词复数 )；切换键；（汽车等的）变速；更换v.改变( shift的第三人称单数 )；去掉；摆脱掉；换挡

参考例句：

• The action of the novel shifts from Paris to London. 小说情节从巴黎移到了伦敦。
• I work split shifts in a busy restaurant. 我在一家繁忙的餐馆上间隔班。

8 jet   

n.喷气发动机，喷气式飞机；v.喷出，喷射

参考例句：

• Put a match to the jet to light the gas.将火柴放在煤气喷嘴上点燃煤气。
• I don't see the jet of your plan.我不明白你的计划的要点。

9 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

10 magnitude   

n.大小；重大；星等

参考例句：

• I want to know the magnitude of this equipment.我想知道这个设备的大小。
• I hadn't realized the magnitude of the problem.我没有认识到这个问题的重要性。

11 learned   

adj.有学问的，博学的；learn的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• He went into a rage when he learned about it.他听到这事后勃然大怒。
• In this little village,he passed for a learned man.在这个小村子里，他被视为有学问的人。

12 evacuate   

v.遣送；搬空；抽出；排泄；大(小)便

参考例句：

• We must evacuate those soldiers at once!我们必须立即撤出这些士兵！
• They were planning to evacuate the seventy American officials still in the country.他们正计划转移仍滞留在该国的70名美国官员。