财富精英励志演讲 第125期:未来的路(1)

 　　Thank you. In these lectures, I have offered a conceptual framework for a better understanding of human events. These events are not determined¹ by timelessly valid² scientific laws. Such laws exist, of course, but they are not sufficient to determine the course of events. The complexity³ of the situations is one reason, and the role of the participants' thinking is another.

　　谢谢大家。在这个系列讲座中，我为更好地理解人类活动设计了一个 概念性的框架。这些活动并不是由永恒不变的正确的科学定律所决定的。当然，这种定律的确存在，但它们还不足以主宰活动的进程。原因之一是环境的复杂性，而参与者思维的作用是其另一个原因。

　　I have focused on the reflective, two-way connection between the participants' thinking and reality, and I emphasized the causal role that misunderstandings and misconceptions play in shaping reality. But these influences have been strangely ignored. They introduce an element of uncertainty⁴ into the subject matter which, except in the simplest situations, make it impossible to predict the future.

　　我重点解释了参与者的思维与现实之间反射性的双向联系。我强调了错误理解和错误概念在塑造现实中所起的因果作用。但这些影响都被人们莫名其妙地忽略掉了，而正是这些影响，给事物掺入了一些不确定因素。因此，除了极其简单的情况外，预测未来变得不太可能。

　　One can still sketch⁵ out various plausible⁶ scenarios⁷ and evaluate their likelihood. One can also prescribe desirable outcomes, I have done both, many times. Indeed, I can claim to be a specialist in it, focusing on predictions as an investor⁸ and prescriptions⁹ as a philanthropist I have been successful enough in the former to be able to afford the latter. I should like to devote today's discussion to this dual¹⁰ task.

　　但我们依然可以拟定出各种可能的方案并对其进行可行性评估，也可以采取措施，达到我们想要的结果。我在这两方面都已经尝试了很多次。的确，我可以说自己很在行。作为投资者，我善于预测；作为公益慈善家，我主要为问题提供解决方案；作为投资者，我很成功，并能够借此支持我的慈善活动。那么今天的演讲，我就想从这两个方面来展开。

1 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

2 valid   

adj.有确实根据的；有效的；正当的，合法的

参考例句：

• His claim to own the house is valid.他主张对此屋的所有权有效。
• Do you have valid reasons for your absence?你的缺席有正当理由吗？

3 complexity   

n.复杂(性)，复杂的事物

参考例句：

• Only now did he understand the full complexity of the problem.直到现在他才明白这一问题的全部复杂性。
• The complexity of the road map puzzled me.错综复杂的公路图把我搞糊涂了。

4 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

5 sketch   

n.草图；梗概；素描；v.素描；概述

参考例句：

• My sister often goes into the country to sketch. 我姐姐常到乡间去写生。
• I will send you a slight sketch of the house.我将给你寄去房屋的草图。

6 plausible   

adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的

参考例句：

• His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
• Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。

7 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

8 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

9 prescriptions   

药( prescription的名词复数 )； 处方； 开处方； 计划

参考例句：

• The hospital of traditional Chinese medicine installed a computer to fill prescriptions. 中医医院装上了电子计算机来抓药。
• Her main job was filling the doctor's prescriptions. 她的主要工作就是给大夫开的药方配药。

10 dual   

adj.双的；二重的，二元的

参考例句：

• The people's Republic of China does not recognize dual nationality for any Chinese national.中华人民共和国不承认中国公民具有双重国籍。
• He has dual role as composer and conductor.他兼作曲家及指挥的双重身分。