2022年经济学人 意大利的债务

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Finance & economics

财经板块

Italy’s debt: Whenever it breaks

意大利的债务：无论何时爆发

How inflation and rising interest rates might affect Italy’s finances

通胀和利率上升可能会如何影响意大利的财政

Before the pandemic it was a cause for excitement among economists¹ that the real interest rate governments paid on their debts had fallen below the rate of economic growth in most rich countries, allowing governments to spend more freely and worry less about running up debts.

政府为其债务支付的实际利率已降至大多数富裕国家的经济增长率以下，使得政府支出更自由，并减少对债务积欠的担忧，在疫情暴发前，这曾是令经济学家感到兴奋的一个原因。

But central banks’ battle with inflation today threatens to turn that relationship on its head, making the fiscal² position of indebted governments more perilous³.

但央行今天与通胀的斗争可能会颠覆这种关系，使负债累累的政府的财政状况更加危险。

When interest rates are below growth rates, governments can run primary budget deficits⁴ (that is, deficits before interest payments are taken into account) without the debt-to-GDP ratio necessarily rising.

当利率低于增长率时，政府可能会背负基本预算赤字(即不计利息支付的赤字)，而债务与国内生产总值的比率不一定会上升。

But when rates exceed economic growth, primary surpluses are the only way to keep indebtedness stable.

但当利率超过经济增长时，基本盈余是保持债务稳定的唯一途径。

The higher the starting debt, the more belt-tightening needed.

起始债务越高，越需要勒紧裤腰带。

Fortunately, inflation reduces the real interest rate, and so most countries will gain a fiscal windfall this year.

幸运的是，通胀降低了实际利率，因此大多数国家今年将获得一笔财政意外之财。

Some of their debt, in other words, will be inflated⁵ away.

换句话说，他们的部分债务将被通胀抵消。

But if central banks successfully bring inflation down, and if high interest rates endure, things could get more painful.

但如果各大央行成功地降低了通胀，如果高利率持续下去，情况可能会变得更加令人痛苦。

The picture looks especially worrying in Italy.

意大利的情况看起来尤其令人担忧。

The euro zone’s third-largest economy had net public debt worth nearly 140% of GDP last year.

欧元区第三大经济体去年的净公共债务接近GDP的140%。

Its government currently pays about 3.5% to borrow for ten years.

其政府目前的10年期借款利率约为3.5%。

Precisely⁶ where Italy’s indebtedness and borrowing costs will settle after the energy crisis is uncertain.

能源危机过后，意大利的债务和借贷成本到底会在哪里解决还不确定。

We’ve been looking at a range of combinations for debt and financing costs, and what they would imply for the country’s budget were growth to match the average IMF forecast during 2022-27, and were inflation to fall to the European Central Bank’s target of 2%.

我们一直在研究债务和融资成本的一系列组合，以及如果2022-27年期间经济增长与国际货币基金组织预测的平均水平持平，如果通货膨胀率降至欧洲央行2%的目标，这些组合对该国预算将意味着什么。

In reality, the average tenor⁷ of outstanding Italian debt is nearly eight years, so it would take time for its average financing cost to rise.

事实上，意大利未偿还债务的平均期限接近8年，因此其平均融资成本上升需要时间。

At financing costs of 3% or below, Italy can run small primary deficits and still outgrow⁸ its debt.

在融资成本为3%或更低的情况下，意大利可以维持小规模的基本赤字，同时上升速度仍能超过债务增长速度。

As interest rates rise, however, stability requires primary surpluses of 2% or more.

然而，随着利率的上升，需要2%或更多的基本盈余才能保持稳定。

The only time Italy has run so tight a budget since the global financial crisis was in 2012, at the height of European austerity.

自全球金融危机以来，意大利唯一一次如此紧缩预算是在2012年，当时正值欧洲紧缩的高峰时期。

1 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

3 perilous   

adj.危险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• The journey through the jungle was perilous.穿过丛林的旅行充满了危险。
• We have been carried in safety through a perilous crisis.历经一连串危机，我们如今已安然无恙。

4 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

5 inflated   

adj.（价格）飞涨的；（通货）膨胀的；言过其实的；充了气的v.使充气（于轮胎、气球等）( inflate的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）膨胀；（使）通货膨胀；物价上涨

参考例句：

• He has an inflated sense of his own importance. 他自视过高。
• They all seem to take an inflated view of their collective identity. 他们对自己的集体身份似乎都持有一种夸大的看法。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

7 tenor   

n.男高音（歌手），次中音（乐器），要旨，大意

参考例句：

• The tenor of his speech was that war would come.他讲话的大意是战争将要发生。
• The four parts in singing are soprano,alto,tenor and bass.唱歌的四个声部是女高音、女低音、男高音和男低音。

8 outgrow   

vt.长大得使…不再适用；成长得不再要

参考例句：

• The little girl will outgrow her fear of pet animals.小女孩慢慢长大后就不会在怕宠物了。
• Children who walk in their sleep usually outgrow the habit.梦游的孩子通常在长大后这个习惯自然消失。