2022年经济学人 加密行业站到最后的人

搜索

复制

Finance & economics

财经板块

Buttonwood: Last man standing¹

梧桐树:站到最后的人

Is Sam Bankman-Fried the John Pierpont Morgan of crypto?

山姆·班克曼-弗里德是加密行业的约翰·皮尔庞特·摩根吗？

Two years ago scarcely anyone in mainstream² finance had heard of Sam Bankman-Fried, or FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange he launched in 2019.

两年前，主流金融界几乎没有人听说过山姆·班克曼-弗里德，或是他在2019年推出的加密货币交易所FTX。

Both gained greater prominence³, first as the crypto craze reached fever pitch and then as crypto fell to Earth.

随着加密热潮达到狂热的程度，之后加密技术又落地，二者都获得了更大的知名度。

Mr Bankman-Fried (widely known as SBF) has lately been at the centre of attempts to rescue beleaguered⁴ crypto firms.

班克曼-弗里德(被广泛称为SBF)最近一直是试图拯救陷入困境的加密公司的中心人物。

To some observers, the role calls to mind the rescue missions organised by John Pierpont Morgan and America’s other banking⁵ scions⁶ in the early 20th century.

在一些观察人士看来，这一角色让人想起了20世纪初约翰·皮尔庞特·摩根和美国其他银行业后代的救援行动。

The comparison is surprisingly instructive.

这一比较具有惊人的启发意义。

The recent slump⁷ has left destruction in its wake.

最近的经济低迷留下了毁灭性的后果。

Some crypto-lending firms, notably⁸ Celsius⁹, have collapsed¹¹; some stablecoins, like terra, have been obliterated¹².

一些加密贷款公司，特别是Celsius，已经倒闭；一些稳定币，如Terra稳定币，已经被摧毁。

At least one crypto hedge fund, Three Arrows Capital, has gone bust¹³.

至少有一家加密对冲基金--三箭资本--已经破产。

Estimates of SBF’s personal wealth have tumbled, too, from $26bn just over three months ago to nearer $8bn now.

对SBF个人财富的估计数额也大幅下降，从仅仅3个多月前的260亿美元降至现在的不到80亿美元。

Nonetheless, his companies (FTX and Alameda, a trading firm) seem to be the great survivors¹⁴ of the recent chaos¹⁵.

尽管如此，他的公司(FTX和交易公司Alameda)似乎是最近混乱局面中最大的幸存者。

FTX had kept employee numbers relatively¹⁶ low; SBF has said the exchange is still profitable.

FTX将员工数量保持在相对较低的水平；SBF表示，该交易所仍在盈利。

Well-timed funding rounds early this year saw its global and American arms raising $400m each.

今年早些时候，恰逢其时的几轮融资让该公司的全球和美国子公司分别筹集了4亿美元。

That has enabled SBF to help others in need.

这使得SBF能够帮助其他有需要的人。

In June Voyager Digital, a broker¹⁷, secured loans worth $485m from Alameda.

6月份，经济商Voyager Digital从Alameda获得了价值4.85亿美元的贷款。

BlockFi, another trader, has received a revolving¹⁸ line of credit from FTX’s American arm.

另一家交易商BlockFi从FTX的美国分公司获得了循环信贷额度。

To some this harks back to America’s banking panic of 1907.

对一些人来说，这让人回想起1907年美国银行业的恐慌。

The economy was in recession; towards the end of that year the thinly capitalised Knickerbocker Trust Company, one of America’s largest financial firms at the time, collapsed.

那一年，经济陷入衰退；到年底时，当时美国最大的金融公司之一、资本稀少的尼克伯克信托公司倒闭了。

Morgan went on to orchestrate a series of private rescues with other financiers, offering deposits in the tens of millions of dollars to various banks in order to prevent runs.

摩根继续与其他金融家一起策划了一系列私人救援行动，向多家银行提供数千万美元的存款，以防止挤兑。

Those actions are usually credited with preventing a deeper, more damaging crisis.

人们称赞这些行动阻止了更严重、更具破坏性的危机。

No other trusts went under.

没有其他信托公司倒闭。

At first glance, then, the comparison is a flattering one for SBF.

因此，乍一看，这种比较对SBF来说是一种恭维。

But 1907 was not the Morgan family’s only attempt at a big bail-out.

但1907年这次并不是摩根家族唯一一次尝试进行大规模纾困。

When the Wall Street crash struck in 1929, J.P. Morgan junior, like his father, sought to bring together a gang of plutocrats to stem the tide.

1929年华尔街崩盘时，小约翰·皮尔庞特·摩根和他的父亲一样，试图召集一帮富豪来力挽狂澜。

Several bankers and brokers¹⁹ pledged to buy $125m in stocks, equivalent to around 0.1% of America’s GDP at the time (which would be about $27bn today).

一些银行家和经纪商承诺购买1.25亿美元的股票，相当于当时美国国内生产总值的0.1%左右(约为现在的270亿美元)。

The plan failed miserably²⁰.

这项计划惨败。

The purchases perhaps pushed out the stockmarket’s collapse¹⁰ by a few days, but did not prevent it from imploding²¹.

这些购买行为或许将股市的崩盘推后了几天，但并未阻止股市崩盘。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index of stocks fell by around 35% between early September 1929 and the end of the year.

从1929年9月初到年底，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数下跌了约35%。

By its nadir²² in 1932, it was almost 90% lower.

到1932年的最低点时，几乎下跌了90%。

Historians are divided over why one intervention²³ worked but not the other.

对于为什么一种干预有效而另一种无效，历史学家意见不一。

Perhaps the panic in 1929 was too far gone for private purchases to make a difference, for instance.

比如一种意见是，也许1929年的恐慌太过严重，以至私人购买无法起到作用。

Other research suggests that the success of 1907 may have been overplayed, and that it was action by the Bank of France to calm domestic markets that spilled over to America and halted the mayhem.

其他研究表明，1907年的成功可能被夸大了，其实是法国银行平息国内市场的行动蔓延到了美国，从而停止了混乱。

The debate suggests that identifying SBF’s role in quelling²⁴ chaos today may be just as hard.

这场辩论表明，确定SBF在平息当前混乱中发挥的作用可能同样困难。

The trouble could simply continue, for a start.

首先，麻烦可能会继续下去。

Indeed, on July 5th Voyager filed for bankruptcy²⁵.

事实上，Voyager已于7月5日申请破产。

A cynic might point out that SBF might be striking deals with other firms not because he wants to rescue the industry, but because he has spotted²⁶ an opportunity to snap up some of his competitors’ operations for pennies on the dollar.

愤世嫉俗的人可能会指出，SBF与其他公司达成交易可能不是因为他想拯救这个行业，而是因为他发现了一个机会，让他能够以极低的价格抢占竞争对手的一些业务。

Some of these attempts may not succeed—Voyager owed Alameda $75m when it went under—but others could.

其中一些尝试可能不会成功--Voyager在破产时欠Alameda7500万美元--但另一些可以。

On July 1st Zac Prince, BlockFi’s chief executive, said that its credit line from FTX had been increased to $400m, and included an option to acquire BlockFi for up to $240m.

7月1日，BlockFi首席执行官扎克·普林斯表示，该公司从FTX获得的信贷额度已增至4亿美元，还包括以高达2.4亿美元的价格收购BlockFi的选择权。

That looks like a bargain compared with the valuation of $5bn that BlockFi was reportedly seeking during a fundraising round last year.

与报道中BlockFi在去年一轮融资中寻求的50亿美元估值相比，这似乎是一笔划算的交易。

Even if SBF is not attempting to save crypto, though, history remains²⁷ relevant.

然而，即使SBF没有试图拯救加密行业，历史仍然是相关的。

The panic of 1907 was a proximate reason for the creation of the Federal Reserve and the beginnings of the progressive taxation²⁸ of income in America, as well as an expansion of antitrust law.

1907年的恐慌是美联储成立、美国开始实行累进所得税制以及扩大反垄断法范围的直接原因。

Instead of being hailed as a hero, Morgan senior became the focal point for concerns that power was too concentrated in the hands of a small number of financiers.

老摩根非但没有被誉为英雄，反而成为了人们关注的焦点，因为人们担心权力过于集中在少数金融家手中。

Now, too, there is a possibility that a crash leads to more stringent²⁹ oversight³⁰, particularly if the volatility³¹ in digital assets spills over to other markets, galvanising regulators.

现在，崩盘也有可能导致更严格的监管，尤其是如果数字资产的波动波及其他市场，从而刺激监管机构的话更有可能。

Boosters may see a J.P. Morgan in Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX.

支持者可能会在山姆·班克曼-弗里德和FTX中看到约翰·皮尔庞特·摩根的影子。

They might come to regret needing one.

他们可能会对于需要这样的影子而感到遗憾。

1 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

2 mainstream   

n.（思想或行为的）主流；adj.主流的

参考例句：

• Their views lie outside the mainstream of current medical opinion.他们的观点不属于当今医学界观点的主流。
• Polls are still largely reflects the mainstream sentiment.民调还在很大程度上反映了社会主流情绪。

3 prominence   

n.突出；显著；杰出；重要

参考例句：

• He came to prominence during the World Cup in Italy.他在意大利的世界杯赛中声名鹊起。
• This young fashion designer is rising to prominence.这位年轻的时装设计师的声望越来越高。

4 beleaguered   

adj.受到围困[围攻]的；包围的v.围攻( beleaguer的过去式和过去分词)；困扰；骚扰

参考例句：

• The beleaguered party leader was forced to resign. 那位饱受指责的政党领导人被迫辞职。
• We are beleaguered by problems. 我们被许多困难所困扰。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

6 scions   

n.接穗，幼枝( scion的名词复数 )；（尤指富家）子孙

参考例句：

• Eldritch giants are powerful scions of arcane lore. 邪术巨人是神秘奥术知识的强大传承者。 来自互联网
• Grafting can join scions with desirable qualities to root stock that is strong and resistsand insects. 嫁接能够将理想质量的接穗嫁接到强有力抗病虫害的砧木上。 来自互联网

7 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

8 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

9 Celsius   

adj.摄氏温度计的，摄氏的

参考例句：

• The temperature tonight will fall to seven degrees Celsius.今晚气温将下降到七摄氏度。
• The maximum temperature in July may be 36 degrees Celsius.七月份最高温度可能达到36摄氏度。

10 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

11 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

12 obliterated   

v.除去( obliterate的过去式和过去分词 )；涂去；擦掉；彻底破坏或毁灭

参考例句：

• The building was completely obliterated by the bomb. 炸弹把那座建筑物彻底摧毁了。
• He began to drink, drank himself to intoxication, till he slept obliterated. 他一直喝，喝到他快要迷糊地睡着了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

14 survivors   

幸存者，残存者，生还者( survivor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The survivors were adrift in a lifeboat for six days. 幸存者在救生艇上漂流了六天。
• survivors clinging to a raft 紧紧抓住救生筏的幸存者

15 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

16 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

17 broker   

n.中间人，经纪人；v.作为中间人来安排

参考例句：

• He baited the broker by promises of higher commissions.他答应给更高的佣金来引诱那位经纪人。
• I'm a real estate broker.我是不动产经纪人。

18 revolving   

adj.旋转的，轮转式的；循环的v.（使）旋转( revolve的现在分词 )；细想

参考例句：

• The theatre has a revolving stage. 剧院有一个旋转舞台。
• The company became a revolving-door workplace. 这家公司成了工作的中转站。

19 brokers   

n.（股票、外币等）经纪人( broker的名词复数 )；中间人；代理商；（订合同的）中人v.做掮客（或中人等）( broker的第三人称单数 )；作为权力经纪人进行谈判；以中间人等身份安排…

参考例句：

• The firm in question was Alsbery & Co., whiskey brokers. 那家公司叫阿尔斯伯里公司，经销威士忌。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹
• From time to time a telephone would ring in the brokers' offices. 那两排经纪人房间里不时响着叮令的电话。 来自子夜部分

20 miserably   

adv.痛苦地；悲惨地；糟糕地；极度地

参考例句：

• The little girl was wailing miserably. 那小女孩难过得号啕大哭。
• It was drizzling, and miserably cold and damp. 外面下着毛毛细雨，天气又冷又湿，令人难受。 来自《简明英汉词典》

21 imploding   

v.（使）向心聚爆( implode的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• He has nightmares about the tanks imploding. 他老是做油箱爆炸的噩梦。 来自辞典例句
• Just like silver stars imploding we absorb the light of day. 身披白昼之圣光光没银星俱裂亡。 来自互联网

22 nadir   

n.最低点，无底

参考例句：

• This failure was the nadir of her career.这次失败是她事业上的低谷。
• The demand for this product will reach its nadir within two years.对此产品的需求在两年内将达到最低点。

23 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

24 quelling   

v.（用武力）制止，结束，镇压( quell的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Quelling her grief, she said 'Good-bye! 'again and went on. 她把悲痛压下去，二番说了一声再见，又转身走去了。 来自辞典例句
• The police succeeded in quelling the riot. 警方把暴乱镇压了下去。 来自辞典例句

25 bankruptcy   

n.破产；无偿付能力

参考例句：

• You will have to pull in if you want to escape bankruptcy.如果你想避免破产，就必须节省开支。
• His firm is just on thin ice of bankruptcy.他的商号正面临破产的危险。

26 spotted   

adj.有斑点的，斑纹的，弄污了的

参考例句：

• The milkman selected the spotted cows,from among a herd of two hundred.牛奶商从一群200头牛中选出有斑点的牛。
• Sam's shop stocks short spotted socks.山姆的商店屯积了有斑点的短袜。

27 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

28 taxation   

n.征税，税收，税金

参考例句：

• He made a number of simplifications in the taxation system.他在税制上作了一些简化。
• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。

29 stringent   

adj.严厉的；令人信服的；银根紧的

参考例句：

• Financiers are calling for a relaxation of these stringent measures.金融家呼吁对这些严厉的措施予以放宽。
• Some of the conditions in the contract are too stringent.合同中有几项条件太苛刻。

30 oversight   

n.勘漏，失察，疏忽

参考例句：

• I consider this a gross oversight on your part.我把这件事看作是你的一大疏忽。
• Your essay was not marked through an oversight on my part.由于我的疏忽你的文章没有打分。

31 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。