2022年经济学人 滞后带来的拖累（2）

Moreover, an increase in central-bank’s transparency may be compressing lags.

此外，央行透明度的提高可能会缩短滞后时间。

In America mortgage rates had increased by a full percentage point even before the Fed had raised short-term rates.

在美国，甚至在美联储提高短期利率之前，抵押贷款利率就已经上升了整整一个百分点。

This has not happened in previous cycles, and represents the fastest pricing-in of expectations in at least four decades.

这在之前的经济周期中从未发生过，而且是至少40年来最快的预期定价。

As a result, the housing market has had at least half a year to respond to higher mortgage rates.

房地产市场因此至少有半年的时间来应对抵押贷款利率的上升。

Sure enough, home sales, prices and new construction have all started to fall.

果不其然，房屋销售量、价格和新开工量都开始下降。

In a way, the Fed is lagging the market: its rate increases are, in part, ratifying¹ expectations that are already influencing activity.

在某种程度上，美联储正在落后于市场：它的加息措施在一定程度上是在认可已经在影响经济活动的预期。

None of this is to minimise the risk from lags.

所有这些都不是为了将滞后带来的风险降至最低。

Friedman believed they all but doomed² counter-cyclical interventions³.

弗里德曼认为，它们几乎注定了反周期干预的失败。

He viewed such attempts as “disturbances with a peculiarly high potential for mischief⁴”.

他认为这样的尝试是“极有可能造成危害的干扰”。

Central bankers are more confident.

而央行官员们对此的信心要高一些。

But persistent⁵ inflation does underscore Friedman’s point about the challenges of getting policy right, whether tightening⁶ or easing.

但持续的通胀确实突显了弗里德曼观点的重要性，即无论是紧缩还是宽松政策，正确实施政策都具有挑战性。

Today’s woes⁷ stem, in part, from aggressive stimulus⁸ in 2020 and 2021.

今天的困境部分源于2020年和2021年的激进刺激政策。

The mischief, in other words, can cut both ways.

换言之，这种干扰可以在两方面都起作用。

Doves worry that excessive tightening will lead to a bad recession.

鸽派担心过度紧缩将导致严重的经济衰退。

Hawks⁹ fear that a premature¹⁰ halt will lead to continued bad inflation.

而鹰派担心，过早停止加息将导致持续的恶性通胀。

Both worry the Fed will get its timing¹¹ wrong again, just in diametrically opposite directions.

两方都担心美联储会再次抓错时机，只不过担心的方向截然相反。

1 ratifying   

v.批准，签认（合约等）( ratify的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• They call their State Assembly a disgrace for ratifying the 35th. 他们把州议会通过的第35号修正案说成是可耻的行为。 来自辞典例句
• The Obama administration, unlike its predecessor, talks of ratifying the test-ban treaty. 该会议五年举办一次，回顾其间发生的事情。 来自互联网

2 doomed   

命定的

参考例句：

• The court doomed the accused to a long term of imprisonment. 法庭判处被告长期监禁。
• A country ruled by an iron hand is doomed to suffer. 被铁腕人物统治的国家定会遭受不幸的。

3 interventions   

n.介入，干涉，干预( intervention的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Economic analysis of government interventions deserves detailed discussion. 政府对经济的干预应该给予充分的论述。 来自辞典例句
• The judge's frequent interventions made a mockery of justice. 法官的屡屡干预是对正义的践踏。 来自互联网

4 mischief   

n.损害，伤害，危害；恶作剧，捣蛋，胡闹

参考例句：

• Nobody took notice of the mischief of the matter. 没有人注意到这件事情所带来的危害。
• He seems to intend mischief.看来他想捣蛋。

5 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

6 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

7 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

8 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

9 hawks   

鹰( hawk的名词复数 )； 鹰派人物，主战派人物

参考例句：

• Two hawks were hover ing overhead. 两只鹰在头顶盘旋。
• Both hawks and doves have expanded their conditions for ending the war. 鹰派和鸽派都充分阐明了各自的停战条件。

10 premature   

adj.比预期时间早的；不成熟的，仓促的

参考例句：

• It is yet premature to predict the possible outcome of the dialogue.预言这次对话可能有什么结果为时尚早。
• The premature baby is doing well.那个早产的婴儿很健康。

11 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。