时代周刊:威慑之争(1)

THE DETERRENCE¹ DEBATE

威慑之争

By James Stavridis

文/詹姆斯·斯塔夫里蒂斯

President Trump² and Kim Jong Un’s courtship has been nothing if not fickle⁴.

特朗普总统和金正恩的关系一直反复无常。

And so as the summit over North Korea’s nuclear weapons veers⁵ from on-again to off-again,

因此，既然有关朝鲜核武器的峰会时断时续，

the world should consider the thinking of three distinguished⁶ U.S. military officers—

国际社会就应该分析分析美国三大军官的思维方式——

two of whom just took pivotal posts in these turbulent times.

其中两人都是刚刚在整个风云变幻的时代接任了关键职位。

I know each of them very well from our decades of service and my time in the Pacific Fleet and as NATO Supreme⁷ Commander:

因为我们四人都服役了数十年，加上我还在太平洋舰队服役过，还担任过北约最高指挥官，我对他们三人都有颇深的了解：

General James Mattis, the Secretary of Defense⁸;

国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯将军；

Admiral Harry⁹ Harris, who was officially nominated for U.S. ambassador to South Korea the day before Trump withdrew from the summit with Kim;

川普退出与金正恩的峰会前一天正式提名的美国驻韩大使，海军上将哈里·哈里斯；

and Admiral Phil Davidson, Harris’ new successor as commander of the vast U.S. Pacific Command.

以及接任哈里斯美国太平洋司令部司令的海军上将菲尔·戴维森。

Together, they own the problem of determining how to return the U.S. to full-bore deterrence—

他们三人共同承担着决定如何让美国恢复全方位威慑力的责任——

and giving the President new options for military strikes if the negotiations¹⁰ fail.

还有谈判失败后为总统提供军事打击新选项的责任。

What will their counsel be to the mercurial¹¹ President?

他们会对特朗普这位善变的总统做出怎样的建议呢？

Let’s start with Mattis.

我们先来分析马蒂斯会给出怎样的建议。

The decision about what actions the U.S. should take will likely play out in a three-way conversation among him, National Security Adviser¹² John Bolton and the President.

美国应该采取何种行动的决策可能要经由马蒂斯，国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿和总统的三方会谈诞生。

Mattis is a thoughtful strategist with a deep sense of history—essentially the opposite of Trump.

马蒂斯是一位深思熟虑的战略家，对历史有着很深的了解——基本和特朗普是完全不同的两个人。

The President will continue to largely shoot from the hip³:

总统很大程度上可能都会选择继续不假思索鲁莽行事：

he’ll ignore both the briefings and intelligence presented to him, and will remain inclined to swing for the fences,

无论是递交给他的简报还是情报他都将选择视而不见，并一如既往地倾向于孤注一掷，

if not in a summit, then in some kind of preemptive strike.

届时如果不是在峰会上，那就是某个先发制人的场合。

Mattis will face the challenge of counseling patience, while offering options for sanctions (again);

马蒂斯将面临一边耐心提供咨询，一边提供制裁（再次）；

cyber, intelligence and missile defense; perhaps a naval¹³ blockade; and even both limited and massive strikes.

网络防御、情报防御和导弹防御；或许还有海上封锁；甚至是有限打击和大规模打击等选项的挑战。

Harris, a Japanese American, will be parachuting into high drama.

哈里斯，日裔美国人，则会空投充满戏剧性的建议。

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who had invested excessively in relationship-building with Kim,

为与金正恩修好不计代价的韩国总统文在寅

will be anxious to heal the wounds inflicted¹⁴ by Trump’s calling off the talks.

则会迫不及待地想愈合特朗普叫停会谈造成的创伤。

Harris understands why.

对此，哈里斯堪称是心如明镜。

He knows the Korean War plans better than anyone and grasps exactly how devastating¹⁵ a war on the Korean Peninsula would be.

他比任何人都更了解朝鲜战争的计划，也更清楚朝鲜半岛的战争会造成怎样的灾难。

He and his wife Bruni will also be located at ground zero.

届时，他和妻子布鲁尼都将成为直接的攻击目标。

1 deterrence   

威慑，制止； 制止物，制止因素； 挽留的事物； 核威慑

参考例句：

• An extreme school of "disarmers" pronounced stable deterrence was a dangerous deception. “裁军论者”中的极端派声称，稳定的威摄是一种危险的骗局。
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。

2 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

3 hip   

n.臀部，髋；屋脊

参考例句：

• The thigh bone is connected to the hip bone.股骨连着髋骨。
• The new coats blouse gracefully above the hip line.新外套在臀围线上优美地打着褶皱。

4 fickle   

adj.(爱情或友谊上)易变的，不坚定的

参考例句：

• Fluctuating prices usually base on a fickle public's demand.物价的波动往往是由于群众需求的不稳定而引起的。
• The weather is so fickle in summer.夏日的天气如此多变。

5 veers   

v.（尤指交通工具）改变方向或路线( veer的第三人称单数 )；（指谈话内容、人的行为或观点）突然改变；（指风） （在北半球按顺时针方向、在南半球按逆时针方向）逐渐转向；风向顺时针转

参考例句：

• The car veers out of control. 这辆车失去了控制。 来自辞典例句
• His fondness for his characters sometimes veers towards the sentimental. 他对那位主人公的偏爱有时也稍显矫情。 来自互联网

6 distinguished   

adj.卓越的，杰出的，著名的

参考例句：

• Elephants are distinguished from other animals by their long noses.大象以其长长的鼻子显示出与其他动物的不同。
• A banquet was given in honor of the distinguished guests.宴会是为了向贵宾们致敬而举行的。

7 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

8 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

9 harry   

vt.掠夺，蹂躏，使苦恼

参考例句：

• Today,people feel more hurried and harried.今天，人们感到更加忙碌和苦恼。
• Obama harried business by Healthcare Reform plan.奥巴马用医改掠夺了商界。

10 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

11 mercurial   

adj.善变的，活泼的

参考例句：

• He was of a mercurial temperament and therefore unpredictable.他是个反复无常的人，因此对他的行为无法预言。
• Our desires and aversions are mercurial rulers.我们的欲望与嫌恶是变化无常的统治者。

12 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

13 naval   

adj.海军的，军舰的，船的

参考例句：

• He took part in a great naval battle.他参加了一次大海战。
• The harbour is an important naval base.该港是一个重要的海军基地。

14 inflicted   

把…强加给，使承受，遭受( inflict的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They inflicted a humiliating defeat on the home team. 他们使主队吃了一场很没面子的败仗。
• Zoya heroically bore the torture that the Fascists inflicted upon her. 卓娅英勇地承受法西斯匪徒加在她身上的酷刑。

15 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。