时代周刊:中美贸易战进入新阶段(1)

Now the risk report by Ian Bremmer

下面是伊恩·布雷默供稿的一则风险报告

Trade Battles Between the U.S. and China Enter a Perilous¹ New Phase

中美贸易战进入危险的新阶段

NOT SO LONG AGO, U.S. leaders predicted that

不久前，美国领导人还预测，

economic development and the birth of a middle class in China would inevitably² move that nation toward democracy.

经济发展和中产阶级的崛起将不可避免地推动中国走向民主。

Instead, China’s leadership has profited from a weaker West.

然而，西方世界的下滑让中国领导层坐收了渔利。

It has seized on opportunities created by European fragmentation and political dysfunction in Washington

他们抓住了欧洲分裂、华盛顿政治失调这一机遇，

to offer China as an alternative model of stability and development.

将中国打造成了另一种稳定和发展的模式。

Another mistake by the U.S.: lawmakers doubted that China would ever become technologically⁴ innovative⁵.

美国犯下的另一个错误是国会议员十分质疑中国的技术创新能力。

They believed that, like the Soviet⁶ Union, China’s state-dominated economic system would hit a wall when it came to developing new ideas.

他们以为，中国的计划经济体制追求新思路时会和苏联一样碰壁。

Instead, China learned from Soviet mistakes.

然而，中国吸取了苏联的教训。

Now China is investing huge sums in the artificial intelligence,

如今，中国正在大力投资人工智能，机器人和数据管理创新等领域，

robotics and data-management innovations that will determine tomorrow’s balance of power.

而这些领域即将决定国际社会今后的力量对比。

China’s President Xi Jinping declared in October that the nation must become a technological³ superpower.

中国的国家主席习近平去年10月就已宣布，中国必须成为技术超级大国。

He has repeatedly emphasized the need to shed dependence⁷ on foreign intellectual property.

他一直在反复强调摆脱依赖外国知识产权的重要性。

“Indigenous innovation” and technological self-reliance are now core to China’s development strategy.

如今，“自主创新”和技术自主已成为中国发展战略的核心。

His Made in China 2025 program, backed with huge state subsidies⁸ for its tech sector⁹, is central to Xi’s vision.

成为技术超级大国这一愿景最为核心的部分就是他提出的“中国制造2025计划”，而政府对该计划的科技板块的补助可谓十分可观。

ON MAY 29, President Trump¹⁰ launched an offensive against that plan.

5月29日，特朗普总统对该计划发起了攻势。

To protect its national security, the White House said in a statement,

白宫在一份声明中表示，为了保护国家安全，

the U.S. will restrict investment in and control exports of “industrially significant technology.”

美国将限制对“行业核心技术”的投资并控制其出口。

The Trump Administration proposes to slap 25% tariffs¹¹ on some $50 billion of Chinese tech imports, including those related to the vaunted Made in China 2025 program.

特朗普政府提议对价值500亿美元左右的中国输美科技商品，包括那些与“中国制造2025”计划有关的产品加征25%的关税。

1 perilous   

adj.危险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• The journey through the jungle was perilous.穿过丛林的旅行充满了危险。
• We have been carried in safety through a perilous crisis.历经一连串危机，我们如今已安然无恙。

2 inevitably   

adv.不可避免地；必然发生地

参考例句：

• In the way you go on,you are inevitably coming apart.照你们这样下去，毫无疑问是会散伙的。
• Technological changes will inevitably lead to unemployment.技术变革必然会导致失业。

3 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

4 technologically   

ad.技术上地

参考例句：

• Shanghai is a technologically advanced city. 上海是中国的一个技术先进的城市。
• Many senior managers are technologically illiterate. 许多高级经理都对技术知之甚少。

5 innovative   

adj.革新的，新颖的，富有革新精神的

参考例句：

• Discover an innovative way of marketing.发现一个创新的营销方式。
• He was one of the most creative and innovative engineers of his generation.他是他那代人当中最富创造性与革新精神的工程师之一。

6 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

7 dependence   

n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属

参考例句：

• Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
• He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。

8 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

10 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

11 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。