商业报道:第一季度经济预测

First quarter to be calmer

The backdrop will be a massive stimulus¹ package as long-term investors³ focus on long-term bargains

What about early 2009, the first quarter of 2009? What are your expectations for that? what it looks like? how are you advising your clients?

Because it seems like we have been really sort of testing the lowest lately. we haven't seen the 700 points swings and in recent weeks like we saw just a few months ago. I mean it seems like a bit of calming. what is the 2009 bringing? Is that really a new chapter for the market?

It will be a new chapter for the market. I think when we / come to January, we typically see a January effect meaning that you get a fresh batch⁴ of / 401K money, that gets largely put into marketplace that would probably happen again. We will probablly see a stabilizing⁵ of energy prices that gonna be a positive. you know, precipitated⁶ oil and energy prices have been tied to the global economic slowdown, and probably very overdown / . So I think that is gonna be another key theme as we're come to the first quarter of next year. In large part we are here a whole lot more in the February March time plan about physical stimulus. What’s gonna look like and who is gonna impact and how quickly we get that move forwardm, that's gonna be very important for the first quarter of next year, but in terms of what to tell / the investors. this is the time that you start looking at your profolio, January is always a time sort of reset⁷. Look at your exposure every markets to see if it is appropriate, what is your the risk level is. a long-term investor² is gonna see a great bargain as first step for the next year for getting any sort of recovering in this economy / the first quarter of next year. Yeh,it is gonna be time to start looking at stocks again with fresh view towards an improving economy.

where do you think those good bargains are right now in early 2009? where should people be looking in? where should they not be looking?

where you should not be looking in is consumer discretionary it is too soon for that. Maybe it’s too soon for a while. the auto⁸ industries is going to get rescue but the auto stocks are not, stay away from that. Certainly, stay away things tied/ ever/ to advertising⁹ business model. That’s gonna have a very difficult 2009. Energy stocks will probably be a bargain lows at first half of this year. I think it's time to start looking at those and I think you gonna see a snap back rally and commodity prices , you know, these stabilizing is close to 50 dollars and it ends at 30 dollars. So probably a lot of money will be made there. Technology is gonna continue to see on-going consolidations, so continue to look at these large cap tax stocks that have a pile of cash. Certainly,look at these names that they maybe buying ./which/ We're gonna see more and more that sort of work with first quarter of next year. so your know technology honestly is not for a sight. And energy through the whole come-up plex to avoid the consumer discretionary and avoid the advertising model certainly, avoid anything that sort of related to the auto industry in any way she'll perform.

All right, we're leave it there. Well thank you and appreciate your time.

2009年初情况怎样呢？你的预期是什么呢？将会是怎样的状况呢？你会怎样建议自己的客户呢？

因为看似我们最近经历了最低迷的状况。最近几周我们没有像几个月之前一样见到700点的波动。我的意思是看上去平静了一些。2009年给我们带来的是什么呢？市场会不会掀开一个新的篇章呢？

对市场来说确实是一个新的篇章。我认为当进入一月份的时候，我们会看到一月份的影响，你会得到一笔新的401K资金，以前曾经大量注入市场的资金可能会再度上演。我们可能会看到能源价格稳定下来，这是积极的消息。你知道，石油和能源价格的下降与全球经济危机紧密相连，或许下跌幅度更大。所以，当我们说到明年第一季度的情况时不能忽略另外一个关键主题。大致来讲，我们正在准备二三月份的物质激励措施。情况将会怎样，会有怎样的影响，推进经济发展的进度怎样，都对明年第一季度非常重要。但是对投资者来说，你必须开始审视自己的状况，一月份往往是重新组合的时间。看一下你在每个市场的投放量，想一下是否合适，你的风险水平怎样。长期投资者将会在明年的第一季度经济恢复时看到巨大的利益。是的，是时间从新到角度来重新审视股票了。

你从哪里看出来2009年第一季度会有好的收益呢？人们应该从哪些方面去看呢？他们应该关注哪些方面呢？

你不应该观察到是消费者情况。消费的增加不会很快发生。汽车行业会得到政府救援，但是汽车行业的股票就没有那么稳定。当然，这和广告行业相关。2009年将会非常困难。能源类股票在2009年上半年可能还会保持低价。我认为现在应该多关注一下那些，我觉得你会看到商品价格反弹。你知道，那些稳定的股票最开始价格是50美元，最后却跌倒30美元。所以可能会从这里赚很多钱。科技股仍然会保持稳定，所以继续关注那些缴税大户。当然，可以关注一下他们可能在买的股票，我们明年早期可能会见到很多这种情况。所以你应该知道，科技股并不值得买。避免广告行业的影响，避免任何和汽车行业相关的东西，无论他们表现怎样。

1 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

2 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 batch   

n.一批(组，群)；一批生产量

参考例句：

• The first batch of cakes was burnt.第一炉蛋糕烤焦了。
• I have a batch of letters to answer.我有一批信要回复。

5 stabilizing   

n.稳定化处理[退火]v.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The disulfide bridges might then be viewed primarily as stabilizing components. 二硫桥可以被看作是初级的稳定因素。 来自辞典例句
• These stabilizing design changes are usually not desirable for steady-state operation. 这些增加稳定性的设计改变通常不太符合稳态工作的要求。 来自辞典例句

6 precipitated   

v.（突如其来地）使发生( precipitate的过去式和过去分词 )；促成；猛然摔下；使沉淀

参考例句：

• His resignation precipitated a leadership crisis. 他的辞职立即引发了领导层的危机。
• He lost his footing and was precipitated to the ground. 他失足摔倒在地上。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 reset   

v.重新安排，复位；n.重新放置；重放之物

参考例句：

• As soon as you arrive at your destination,step out of the aircraft and reset your wristwatch.你一到达目的地，就走出飞机并重新设置手表时间。
• He is recovering from an operation to reset his arm.他做了一个手臂复位手术，正在恢复。

8 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

9 advertising   

n.广告业；广告活动 a.广告的；广告业务的

参考例句：

• Can you give me any advice on getting into advertising? 你能指点我如何涉足广告业吗?
• The advertising campaign is aimed primarily at young people. 这个广告宣传运动主要是针对年轻人的。