向富人增税 对经济增长是利是弊

 Conservatives have argued for decades that tax cuts are the key to economic prosperity. And the tax plan presumptive GOP nominee¹ Donald Trump² is pushing would cut taxes for the top 0.1 percent of earners by an average of approximately $1.3 million per year, embracing that conservative point of view.

几十年来，保守派坚持认为经济繁荣的关键在于减轻赋税。如果按共和党提名候选人Donald Trump提出的税收计划，仅占0.1%的顶层收入人群每人每年在税费上的支出将减少约130万美元，这一计划与保守派的观点不谋而合。

On the other hand, Democrats³ such as front-runner Hillary Clinton take another approach. Clinton says she'll reform the U.S. tax code so that the wealthiest pay their fair share. The response from Republicans has been predictable: They argue that such a tax plan will lower growth and harm the economy. 

另一方面，民主党内大热的提名候选人Hillary Clinton则有不同的做法。Clinton称她将对美国税码进行改革，让那些顶层收入人群承担其公平份额。共和党人对此的回应不难预见：他们称该税收计划将减缓增长并对经济造成损害。

向富人增税 对经济增长是利是弊

Do the conservative arguments against tax increases have any merit? Or are they, as Democrats claim, a way to serve an ideological⁴ goal of smaller government and reward wealthy Republican donors⁵? Let's take a closer look.

保守派反对增税的理由究竟有没有可取之处？亦或者，像民主党人所说的那样，只是为达成小政府的意识形态目标而服务，顺带回报一下富有的共和党捐款人？现在让我们对这些（理由）做更进一步的了解。

Increasing taxes on the wealthy will harm economic growth: This argument is made frequently, along with the claim that increasing growth will lift all boats, but the evidence doesn't support either claim. As Nobel Prize-winning economist⁶ Peter Diamond and John Bates Clark medalist Emmanuel Saez have noted⁷, since the 1970s no clear correlation⁸ exists between economic growth and top tax-rate cuts across Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. 

对富人增税将损害经济增长：这种说法我们经常能听到，与此说法一起出现的还有经济的持续增长将会让所有人的财富都随之水涨船高，然而现有证据都不支持以上两种说法。诺贝尔经济学奖得主Peter Diamond和约翰·贝茨·克拉克奖得主Emmanuel Saez曾指出，20世纪70年代以来，在经济合作与发展组织（OECD）各成员国内，经济增长与最高税率削减之间并无明显关联。

As for the trickle-down argument, this claim falls apart when you examine what happened to the distribution of income after tax cuts for the wealthy enacted⁹ during the Bush administration. Income of those at the top went up substantially, with no corresponding gain for those lower in the income distribution.

至于“涓滴效应”的理论，当你回头审视Bush政府所推行的减税政策对收入分配的影响之后，会发现这一主张根本站不住脚。顶层人士的收入大幅增加，与此同时低收入人群的收入水平却并未出现相应的增长。

If the wealthy aren't willing to move between states in response to tax differences, it seems even more unlikely that would undertake the far more difficult task of moving to another country. 

既然富人们不愿意因税收差异而移居其他州，那么他们也更不会选择承担更多风险而移居国外了。

Increasing taxes on the wealthy won't increase tax revenue: The Laffer curve argument that increasing taxes will cause the wealthy to pursue tax-avoidance strategies or forego profitable opportunities to the extent that tax revenues actually fall has been examined again and again, and the message is clear. Tax avoidance may increase somewhat, but nowhere near enough to cause tax revenues to fall. 

对富人增税不能增加税收收入：拉弗曲线理论问世至今已经历过一次又一次地检验，所传递出的信息十分明确，即富人会通过寻求避税策略或是放弃获利机会的方式来应对增税，这样一来，实际税收收入将会下降。避税行为会有所增加，但不足以导致税收收入下降。

Diamond and Saez have looked at this closely, and they found that the revenue-maximizing top federal marginal income tax rate would be in or near the range of 50 percent to 70 percent (taking into account that individuals face additional taxes from Medicare and state and local taxes).

Diamond和Saez曾对此进行过详细研究，发现当联邦边际所得税率最高值处在或接近50%至70%这一范围内时，才能实现收入的最大化（考虑到个人还会遇到一些额外税种，如医疗险、州税、地方税）。

Less will be donated to private charities: Would tax increases cause the wealthy to reduce their charitable giving? Research on this question suggests it's the other way around. Back in the 1970s, when the top rate of federal income tax was 70 percent, wealthier Americans (those with incomes of over $500,000 in 2007 dollars) gave around twice as much of their money to charity than they did in 2007, when the top rate had fallen to 35 percent.

私人慈善机构的受捐赠数额将会减少：增税是否会导致富人慈善捐款数额的减少？关于此问题的研究所得出的结论恰好与此相反。在20世纪70年代，当时的联邦所得税的最高税率达到了70%，富人们（按2007年美元币值来算他们的收入超过了50万美元）的慈善捐款数额是其2007年捐款额的两倍，而2007年时最高税率已经降至35%。

Why does this happen? When taxes are higher, the benefit of the tax deduction¹⁰ for charitable giving is also higher, so people tend to increase the amount they give. In addition, the wealthy give their biggest donations almost exclusively to universities and colleges, hospitals and medical centers, and arts institutions. They rarely make large gifts to social-service groups,grass-roots organizations or noNPRofit groups that focus on the poor or minorities.

为何会出现这种情况？当税收增高时，相应的慈善捐赠所带来的税收减免优惠也更大，因此人们乐于增加捐款数额。此外，富人们的大部分捐赠基本都流向了高等院校、医疗机构、文艺机构。他们很少会将大笔款项捐赠给关注低收入和少数族裔群体的社会服务组织、基层组织或者非营利组织。

So to the extent that the increased tax revenue is used to support these groups, social welfare could benefit.

因此，在一定程度上，增加税收收入可以更好地扶持这些组织，社会福利将从中受益。

The wealthy deserve what they earn: This argument assumes that they're paid according to their contribution to society. But in a world of monopoly power, regulatory capture and a symmetric power relationships in bargaining over the wage and profit shares of business earnings¹¹, the presumption¹² that those at the top of the income distribution earned their income flies out the window.

富人挣来的钱都是他们应得的：这一理论假设富人们是因其对社会的贡献而获得的报酬。但现实却是，在商业收入的报酬和利润分成拉锯战中，充斥着垄断势力、规制俘获和不对称的权利关系，因而顶层收入人群获得的是其应得的报酬这个假设不成立。

If we assume that fairness is defined as keeping what you contribute to the social good (what economists¹³ would call the value of their marginal product), and no more than that, such fairness would compel us to take the income the wealthy earn in excess of their contribution to the social good.

如果我们假设，公平的定义是保持对社会的贡献（经济学家称之为“边际产品价值”），除此外没有其他因素，这样的公平将促使我们向富人要回超出他们对社会贡献的那部份收入。

Arguments about the size of government and the taxes needed to support the many things that government does are certainly fair game for politicians. But the argument that tax increases on the wealthy will cause substantial harm to the economy does not withstand a close look at the evidence.

关于政府规模和运作政府所需要的税收收入之类的争论显然是政客们之间的公平博弈。而向富人增税会严重损害经济的这一理论，在我们对这些证据进行仔细分析后，显然是不成立的。

1 nominee   

n.被提名者；被任命者；被推荐者

参考例句：

• His nominee for vice president was elected only after a second ballot.他提名的副总统在两轮投票后才当选。
• Mr.Francisco is standing as the official nominee for the post of District Secretary.弗朗西斯科先生是行政书记职位的正式提名人。

2 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

3 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 ideological   

a.意识形态的

参考例句：

• He always tries to link his study with his ideological problems. 他总是把学习和自己的思想问题联系起来。
• He helped me enormously with advice on how to do ideological work. 他告诉我怎样做思想工作，对我有很大帮助。

5 donors   

n.捐赠者( donor的名词复数 )；献血者；捐血者；器官捐献者

参考例句：

• Please email us to be removed from our active list of blood donors. 假如你想把自己的名字从献血联系人名单中删去，请给我们发电子邮件。
• About half this amount comes from individual donors and bequests. 这笔钱大约有一半来自个人捐赠及遗赠。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

7 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

8 correlation   

n.相互关系，相关，关连

参考例句：

• The second group of measurements had a high correlation with the first.第二组测量数据与第一组高度相关。
• A high correlation exists in America between education and economic position.教育和经济地位在美国有极密切的关系。

9 enacted   

制定（法律），通过（法案）( enact的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• legislation enacted by parliament 由议会通过的法律
• Outside in the little lobby another scene was begin enacted. 外面的小休息室里又是另一番景象。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

10 deduction   

n.减除，扣除，减除额；推论，推理，演绎

参考例句：

• No deduction in pay is made for absence due to illness.因病请假不扣工资。
• His deduction led him to the correct conclusion.他的推断使他得出正确的结论。

11 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

12 presumption   

n.推测，可能性，冒昧，放肆，[法律]推定

参考例句：

• Please pardon my presumption in writing to you.请原谅我很冒昧地写信给你。
• I don't think that's a false presumption.我认为那并不是错误的推测。

13 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》