中东冲突会走多远？

 

How Far Will Mideast Conflict Escalate¹?

Ed Warner

Washington

10 Aug 2001 

 

The latest suicide bombing in Jerusalem 1)intensifies the violence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and appears to make peace even more remote. There are increasing fears of a full-scale war that could involve other countries in the region.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has plans for a stepped-up war, says George Friedman, the chairman of Stratfor, a global intelligence company. He wrote recently that with sufficient 2)provocation, Mr. Sharon will launch a massive attack on the Palestinians and possibly at the same time deal with two other enemies of Israel: Syria and Iraq.

There would be an international 3)outcry over Israel's attack on its neighbors, says Mr. Friedman, but not much more. No power, least of all the United States, would stand in its way.

Steve Yetiv, professor of political science at Old Dominion² University in Virginia, says part of this 4)scenario³ makes sense. "Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres has impressed upon Sharon the importance of not using force too soon and winning over international opinion. I believe with another major terrorist act, Sharon will put in motion plans that are more definitive⁴ in attacking the Palestinian 5)infrastructure," he said.

The entire scenario is 6)plausible, says Naseer Aruri, professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts. He says that by attacking Iraq, Prime Minister Sharon would be acting⁵ in the U.S. interest as well as Israel's. "Sharon would be expecting a green light from Washington, knowing that Washington's top 7)priority in the area is Iraq and the fact that it has not really been able to achieve its objective in Iraq. So here comes Israel telling the Pentagon that we can really do it for you, " Mr. Aruri says.

Mr. Aruri says Israel could achieve what has so far 8)eluded U.S. efforts: the 9)overthrow⁶ of Saddam Hussein. So, he says, the United States would hardly be in a position to object to Israel's other military actions. But the attack would have its downside. "It would probably 10)mobilize Arab masses that hitherto have not really been moving, and I think it would be 11)destabilizing. There are many people in this country, even in the establishment, who feel that it could be counter-productive in the sense that it would have a very negative impact on American interests in the area," Mr. Aruri said.

Professor Yetiv says this goes too far. He says Israel has its hands full with the Palestinians. It has no illusions about 12)eliminating the well entrenched⁷ Iraqi ruler. "If Saddam is going to be overthrown⁸, it is going to have to be an internal operation, probably out of the military with support from some of the elites⁹, and that has simply not come about in the last 15 years. Israel always wants to see Syria and Iraq weakened, but I do not think it is seeing this as a chance to overthrow Saddam," the professor says.

Saddam Hussein, in fact, has been 13)strengthened by the conflict, says Shafeeq Ghabra, director of the Kuwait Information office and professor of political science at Kuwait University. The Iraqi leader's rhetoric¹⁰ 14)resonates with people 15)disturbed by U.S. policy.

To counter this, says Mr. Ghabra, the United States should appear as an honest, 16)neutral broker¹¹ in a struggle that now consumes the region.

 

 

(1)      intensify[In5tensIfaI]vt.加强vi.强化

(2)      provocation[prRvE5keIF(E)n]n.激怒, 刺激, 挑衅, 挑拨

(3)      outcry[5aJtkraI]n.大声疾呼

(4)      scenario[sI5nB:rIEJ]n.想定

(5)      infrastructure[5InfrEstrQktFE(r)]n.下部构造, 基础下部组织

(6)      plausible[5plC:zIb(E)l]adj.似是而非的

(7)      priority[praI5RrItI; (?@) -C:r-]n.先, 前, 优先, 优先权

(8)      elude[I5lu:d]v.躲避

(9)      overthrow[5EJvEWrEJ]n.推翻, 打倒vt.打倒, 推翻, 颠覆

(10)      mobilize[5mEJbIlaIz]v.动员

(11)      destabilize[di:steIbIlaIz]vt.使动摇

(12)      eliminate[I5lImIneIt]vt.排除, 消除v.除去

(13)      strengthen[5streNW(E)n]v.加强, 巩固

(14)      resonate[5rezEneIt]v.(使)共鸣, (使)共振

(15)      disturb[dI5st:b]vt.弄乱, 打扰, 扰乱v.扰乱

(16)      neutral[`njU:trEl]n.中立者, 中立国adj.中立的, 中立国的, 中性的

 

 

1 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

2 dominion   

n.统治，管辖，支配权；领土，版图

参考例句：

• Alexander held dominion over a vast area.亚历山大曾统治过辽阔的地域。
• In the affluent society,the authorities are hardly forced to justify their dominion.在富裕社会里，当局几乎无需证明其统治之合理。

3 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

4 definitive   

adj.确切的，权威性的；最后的，决定性的

参考例句：

• This book is the definitive guide to world cuisine.这本书是世界美食的权威指南。
• No one has come up with a definitive answer as to why this should be so.至于为什么该这样，还没有人给出明确的答复。

5 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

6 overthrow   

v.推翻，打倒，颠覆；n.推翻，瓦解，颠覆

参考例句：

• After the overthrow of the government,the country was in chaos.政府被推翻后，这个国家处于混乱中。
• The overthrow of his plans left him much discouraged.他的计划的失败使得他很气馁。

7 entrenched   

adj.确立的，不容易改的(风俗习惯)

参考例句：

• Television seems to be firmly entrenched as the number one medium for national advertising.电视看来要在全国广告媒介中牢固地占据头等位置。
• If the enemy dares to attack us in these entrenched positions,we will make short work of them.如果敌人胆敢进攻我们固守的阵地，我们就消灭他们。

8 overthrown   

adj. 打翻的，推倒的，倾覆的 动词overthrow的过去分词

参考例句：

• The president was overthrown in a military coup. 总统在军事政变中被赶下台。
• He has overthrown the basic standards of morality. 他已摒弃了基本的道德标准。

9 elites   

精华( elite的名词复数 )； 精锐； 上层集团； （统称）掌权人物

参考例句：

• The elites are by their nature a factor contributing to underdevelopment. 这些上层人物天生是助长欠发达的因素。
• Elites always detest gifted and nimble outsiders. 社会名流对天赋聪明、多才多艺的局外人一向嫌恶。

10 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

11 broker   

n.中间人，经纪人；v.作为中间人来安排

参考例句：

• He baited the broker by promises of higher commissions.他答应给更高的佣金来引诱那位经纪人。
• I'm a real estate broker.我是不动产经纪人。