2016年经济学人 私募股权和阿拉伯之春

 

Finance and Economics

财经商业

Private equity¹ and the Arab spring

私募股权和阿拉伯之春

Tentative steps

投石问路

Investor² interest in the Middle East and north Africa remains³ cautious

投资者对中东、北非的兴趣依旧谨慎

THE hot money may rush in and out—Egypt’s Case 30 index has posted a 29.3% gain so far this year, for example, after shedding 49.3% in 2011. But a more meaningful gauge⁴ of investors⁵’ perceptions of the Middle East and north Africa is the flow of longer-term money.

依埃及的情况，中东-北非可能有热钱忽进忽出。例如，埃及目前公布的30项指标在2011年下跌49.3%，今年涨幅为29.3%。而投资者则根据长期资金的流动这一更有意义的指标来感知中东和北非。

The private-equity industry is still a long way off its pre-crisis peaks. The high point was 2007, with $4.1 billion of deals (these figures exclude Turkey, a hot destination which counts as European in the industry data, and Israel, an entrepreneurial ecosystem⁶ all of its own). Many of the regional funds that operated back then have closed, and only the most intrepid⁷ investors, most of them local, remain active. The average deal size has dropped from $172m in 2007 to $30m last year.

中东-北非的私募股权业若想重归危机以前的峰值，仍有漫漫长路要走。2007年，私募股权业凭41亿美元的交易攀至业界巅峰，土耳其和以色列则不在计算之列，前者虽为投资热点，但业内数据将其视为为欧洲国家，后者则有自己独特的企事业生态系统。彼时运转的大多数区域基金，现今都已结束营业，唯有最具胆识的投资者活跃至今，其中多为本地人。平均交易规模已从2007年的1.72亿美元，跌落至去年的3000万美元。

If the glory days are very much in the past, the numbers suggest that investors are slowly regaining⁸ their appetite after the initial shock of the Arab spring. Deals worth $475m have been done so far this year, according to Dealogic. That already outstrips⁹ the 2011 tally¹⁰ of $237m.

如果说，辉煌荣耀已属于昨天，那上图的数据显示，在经历过阿拉伯之春带来的最初的震撼后，投资者们已慢慢重拾对私募股权业的偏好。Dealogic的数据显示，今年以来的交易总值已达4.75亿美元，早已超过2011年2.37亿美元的记录。

Egypt, whose 85m-strong population helped make it the most popular destination for private-equity investments in the region between 2003 and 2008, has suffered from both the financial crisis and the revolution last year. But the prospect¹¹ of lasting¹² change in the aftermath of Egypt’s presidential election excites many. “Egypt is not very different from Turkey before Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Brazil before Lula da Silva,” says Ahmed Heikal, who heads Citadel¹³ Capital, a fund in Cairo. “If there is some stability, we will witness significant growth.”

在2003年至2008年期间，埃及依靠着自己8500万的庞大人口，一度成为北非-中东一带最热门的私募股权投资地。但如今，却深受金融危机和去年革命的双重冲击。然而，埃及总统大选的余波预示着持久的改变，如此前景让许多人心潮澎湃。开罗基金公司Citadel Capital总裁Ahmed Heikal说，“现今的埃及，同雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安执政前的土耳其，和卢拉·达·席尔瓦上台前的巴西有很多相似处。如果埃及能稳定些，我们将见证埃及的强劲增长。”

Turbulence¹⁴ today also gives brave investors useful negotiating leverage¹⁵. “We see Egypt as more favourable¹⁶ than before the revolution because the competition has backed off,” says Romen Mathieu of EuroMena II, a Beirut-based $100m fund that has just invested in a chain of eye clinics in Egypt. Mr Mathieu reckons that it is easier to win concessions¹⁷ about the level of control funds have over portfolio¹⁸ firms.

当下动荡的市场也成为大胆的投资者手中有用的谈判筹码。EuroMena II是一家设在贝鲁特的一亿美元基金，该基金刚在埃及投资了多家眼科门诊。EuroMena II的Romen Mathieu说，“革命将埃及的竞争一扫而光，所以革命后的埃及对我们更有利”。 Mathieu先生预计，基金在对投资组合公司的控制等级上将更容易赢得让步。

Saudi Arabia is the only other country in the region with comparable heft to Egypt. Algeria has huge potential but the regulations change too often for it to appeal. Other countries are small or, like Syria, off-limits for obvious reasons. So funds often look for portfolio firms with regional potential. “The Arab world is only 350m people so we go for businesses that can capitalise on this by being regional or expect to expand regionally,” says Mustafa Abdel-Wadood of Abraaj Capital, a $7.5 billion emerging-markets firm based in Dubai. That requires expertise¹⁹ many funds lack. “Most funds realise they need operational managers who know how to grow a business in the region,” says one local analyst²⁰. “But they can be hard to find.”

沙特阿拉伯是中东-北非地区唯一与埃及实力相当的国家。阿尔及利亚虽潜力巨大，怎奈频繁变动的监管机构令其吸引力大打折扣。其他国家或为小国，或如叙利亚，受限制原因显而易见。于是，基金常常寻找具有区域潜能的投资组合公司。新兴市场公司Abraaj Capital总资产75亿美元，总部设在迪拜，公司的Mustafa Abdel-Wadood说，“阿拉伯世界仅有3.5亿人口，所以我们投资的是能够利用这一特点具备地域性，或有望在区域内扩张的企业。” 这所要求的专业知识也恰是大多数基金所缺少的。当地某分析师称，“大多数基金意识到，他们需要熟知如何在这一地区发展生意的运营经理。但这样的人才寥寥无几。”

None of which makes an immediate²¹ uptick in Western funds’ activity seem likely. The potential for further political upheaval²² remains great, and there are many obstacles to private equity’s growth. Most businesses are family-owned and it can easily take a year to earn the trust needed to complete a deal, says Mr Mathieu. There are barriers to taking controlling stakes in portfolio companies, particularly in Saudi Arabia. Exit opportunities are not obvious. An investing revolution to follow the political one will take time.

要想凭借以上几点立刻提高西方基金的活跃度的可能性不高。中东北非地区继续发生政治动荡的几率巨大，私募股权的成长之途障碍重重。Mathieu先生说，阿拉伯世界绝大多数企业都为家族企业，如果交易需要，他们可以轻松用一年时间来赢得基金的信任。而若想在投资组合公司中获得控股权，也要面临层层阻碍，尤其是在沙特阿拉伯的公司。抽身机会并不明显。如此看来，若想紧跟政治革命发动投资革命，还需要些时日。

1 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

2 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

3 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

4 gauge   

v.精确计量；估计；n.标准度量；计量器

参考例句：

• Can you gauge what her reaction is likely to be?你能揣测她的反应可能是什么吗？
• It's difficult to gauge one's character.要判断一个人的品格是很困难的。

5 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

6 ecosystem   

n.生态系统

参考例句：

• This destroyed the ecosystem of the island.这样破坏了岛上的生态系统。
• We all have an interest in maintaining the integrity of the ecosystem.维持生态系统的完整是我们共同的利益。

7 intrepid   

adj.无畏的，刚毅的

参考例句：

• He is not really satisfied with his intrepid action.他没有真正满意他的无畏行动。
• John's intrepid personality made him a good choice for team leader.约翰勇敢的个性适合作领导工作。

8 regaining   

复得( regain的现在分词 )； 赢回； 重回； 复至某地

参考例句：

• She was regaining consciousness now, but the fear was coming with her. 现在她正在恢发她的知觉，但是恐怖也就伴随着来了。
• She said briefly, regaining her will with a click. 她干脆地答道，又马上重新振作起精神来。

9 outstrips   

v.做得比…更好，（在赛跑等中）超过( outstrip的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Technology daily outstrips the ability of our institutions to cope with its fruits. 技术发展的速度超过了我们的制度所能应付其成果的程度。 来自辞典例句
• The significance of the foreign exchange market outstrips its impressive size. 外汇市场的意义超出了它给人的印象尺度。 来自互联网

10 tally   

n.计数器，记分，一致，测量；vt.计算，记录，使一致；vi.计算，记分，一致

参考例句：

• Don't forget to keep a careful tally of what you spend.别忘了仔细记下你的开支账目。
• The facts mentioned in the report tally to every detail.报告中所提到的事实都丝毫不差。

11 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

12 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

13 citadel   

n.城堡；堡垒；避难所

参考例句：

• The citadel was solid.城堡是坚固的。
• This citadel is built on high ground for protecting the city.这座城堡建于高处是为保护城市。

14 turbulence   

n.喧嚣，狂暴，骚乱，湍流

参考例句：

• The turbulence caused the plane to turn over.空气的激流导致飞机翻转。
• The world advances amidst turbulence.世界在动荡中前进。

15 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

16 favourable   

adj.赞成的，称赞的，有利的，良好的，顺利的

参考例句：

• The company will lend you money on very favourable terms.这家公司将以非常优惠的条件借钱给你。
• We found that most people are favourable to the idea.我们发现大多数人同意这个意见。

17 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

18 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

19 expertise   

n.专门知识(或技能等)，专长

参考例句：

• We were amazed at his expertise on the ski slopes.他斜坡滑雪的技能使我们赞叹不已。
• You really have the technical expertise in a new breakthrough.让你真正在专业技术上有一个全新的突破。

20 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

21 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

22 upheaval   

n.胀起，(地壳)的隆起；剧变，动乱

参考例句：

• It was faced with the greatest social upheaval since World War Ⅱ.它面临第二次世界大战以来最大的社会动乱。
• The country has been thrown into an upheaval.这个国家已经陷入动乱之中。