2018年经济学人 代代叠加:“拖”无止境(1)

 

Economics Brief

经济学简论

Overlapping¹ generations: Kicking the can down an endless road

代代叠加："拖"无止境

The final brief in our series on big economic ideas looks at the costs (and benefits) of passing on the bill to the next generation.

我们的重大经济思想的最后一篇考察的是寅吃卯粮的代价（和好处）。

In the spring of 1899 William Miller² persuaded three members of his Brooklyn prayer group to invest their money with him, promising³ them unearthly returns.

1899年春，威廉·米勒（William Miller）说服了他在布鲁克林祈祷小组的三位成员把钱交给他来投资，向他们承诺了异乎寻常的回报。

He would pay a dividend⁴ of 10% per week, plus a commission for each new investor⁵ they could recruit.

他会每周支付10%的红利，外加真对他们可能招募来的每一位新投资者的一份佣金。

Soon, William “520%” Miller was drawing throngs⁶ of depositors to his door.

不久，威廉·520%·米勒吸引了大批存款人上门。

So “great was the crush”, by one account, his staircase eventually gave way.

据称，当时人群汹涌，以至于他的楼梯最后都被挤塌了。

Miller attributed his success to “inside information”.

米勒认为，他的成功归功于“内幕消息”。

But his real method was made famous 20 years later by the man who perfected it, Charles Ponzi.

但是，他真正的方法是在20年后是因为那位使之完美无瑕的人——查尔斯·庞兹（Charles Ponzi）而闻名天下的。

Ponzi schemes like Miller's pay a return to early investors⁷ with money raised from later ones.

庞氏骗局（Ponzi schemes）同米勒用从后来者那里筹集到的钱支付早先的投资者的方式如出一辙。

When they run short of new contributions, they collapse⁸.

当缺少新的出资时，它们就崩溃了。

A scheme as generous as Miller's cannot last long.

如米勒般慷慨的骗局无法持久。

But what if the promises were less extravagant⁹ and the repayment¹⁰ intervals¹¹ less tight?

但是，如果承诺少一些夸大，偿还间隔不是那么近呢？

What if, for example, a scheme asked investors for money in their younger years in return for a payout in their dotage¹²?

例如，如果骗局在投资者年轻时向他伸手要钱，在年老体衰时报之以偿还呢？

Over that time scale, a Ponzi scheme need not limit its recruitment efforts to the people alive when it begins.

在这段时间内，庞氏骗局不需要对在它们开始时活着的人的招募努力加以限制。

It can repay today's contributors with money from future participants not yet born.

它可以用来自尚未出生的未来参与者的钱偿还今天的出资者。

And since the next generation is never likely to be the last, the chain could, in principle, continue indefinitely.

而且，由于下一代永远不可能是最后的一代，从理论上说，这一链条可以无限期地继续下去。

Barring a catastrophe¹³, new marks will be born every day.

除非天灾人祸，每一天都会有新生命出生。

This intergenerational logic¹⁴ lies behind the “pay-as-you-go” (PAYG) pensions common in many countries.

这种存在与现收现付养老金（pay-as-you-go 简称PAYG）背后的代际逻辑，在许多国家都是很常见的。

People contribute to the scheme during their working lives, and receive a payout in retirement¹⁵.

人们在自己的工作之年给骗局出资，在退休时拿到偿付。

Many people fondly imagine that their contributions are saved or invested on their behalf, until they reach pensionable age.

许多人天真地假设，他们的出资要么是被存了起来，要么是以他们的名义被投了出去，直到他们达到可以领养老金的年纪。

But that is not the case.

但是，情况并非如此。

The contributions of today's workers pay the pensions of today's retirees.

当今工人的出资偿付的是当今退休人员的养老金。

The money is transferred between generations, not across time.

钱是在几代人之间转来转去，并没有跨越时间。

1 overlapping   

adj./n.交迭（的）

参考例句：

• There is no overlapping question between the two courses. 这两门课程之间不存在重叠的问题。
• A trimetrogon strip is composed of three rows of overlapping. 三镜头摄影航线为三排重迭的象片所组成。

2 miller   

n.磨坊主

参考例句：

• Every miller draws water to his own mill.磨坊主都往自己磨里注水。
• The skilful miller killed millions of lions with his ski.技术娴熟的磨坊主用雪橇杀死了上百万头狮子。

3 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

4 dividend   

n.红利，股息；回报，效益

参考例句：

• The company was forced to pass its dividend.该公司被迫到期不分红。
• The first quarter dividend has been increased by nearly 4 per cent.第一季度的股息增长了近 4%。

5 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

6 throngs   

n.人群( throng的名词复数 )v.成群，挤满( throng的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• She muscled through the throngs of people, frantically searching for David. 她使劲挤过人群，拼命寻找戴维。 来自辞典例句
• Our friends threaded their way slowly through the throngs upon the Bridge. 我们这两位朋友在桥上从人群中穿过，慢慢地往前走。 来自辞典例句

7 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

8 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

9 extravagant   

adj.奢侈的；过分的；(言行等)放肆的

参考例句：

• They tried to please him with fulsome compliments and extravagant gifts.他们想用溢美之词和奢华的礼品来取悦他。
• He is extravagant in behaviour.他行为放肆。

10 repayment   

n.偿还，偿还款；报酬

参考例句：

• I am entitled to a repayment for the damaged goods.我有权利索取货物损坏赔偿金。
• The tax authorities have been harrying her for repayment.税务局一直在催她补交税款。

11 intervals   

n.[军事]间隔( interval的名词复数 )；间隔时间；[数学]区间；（戏剧、电影或音乐会的）幕间休息

参考例句：

• The forecast said there would be sunny intervals and showers. 预报间晴，有阵雨。
• Meetings take place at fortnightly intervals. 每两周开一次会。

12 dotage   

n.年老体衰；年老昏聩

参考例句：

• Even in his dotage,the Professor still sits on the committee.即便上了年纪，教授仍然是委员会的一员。
• Sarah moved back in with her father so that she could look after him in his dotage.萨拉搬回来与父亲同住，好在他年老时照顾他。

13 catastrophe   

n.大灾难，大祸

参考例句：

• I owe it to you that I survived the catastrophe.亏得你我才大难不死。
• This is a catastrophe beyond human control.这是一场人类无法控制的灾难。

14 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

15 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。