2018年经济学人 聪明的投资者:这次不一样(2)

 

One option is for central bankers to raise rates more enthusiastically and less predictably, to jolt¹ financial markets and remind investors² that the world is volatile³.

对于央行银行家而言，一个选项是更加热情而且是少一些可预测性地升息，以便惊扰金融市场并提醒投资者世界是不稳定的。

Yet there are obvious perils⁴ with this course.

然而，这一过程存在着明显的风险。

The tightening⁵ might prove excessive, tipping economies into recession.

收紧有可能被证明是过了，让各个经济体陷入衰退。

And with inflation in most big economies below central bankers' target, sharply higher rates are hard to square with their mandate⁶.

而且，由于大多数大经济体的通胀都在央行银行家的目标之下，大幅升息难以与它们的法定任务相吻合。

Instead, caution calls for gradualism.

相反，谨慎呼唤循序渐进。

To minimise disruption, the reversal of quantitative⁷ easing should be stretched out.

为了使破坏最小化，量化宽松的反转应当被拉长。

The Federal Reserve has set a good precedent⁸ by proposing to reduce its bondholdings at a leisurely⁹ pace and flagging the change well in advance.

美联储通过提议以一种从容悠闲的步伐来降低其债券持有并且事先警示其变化的方式带了一个好头。

When the time comes, its peers should follow suit.

当时机成熟时，其他央行也应当跟进。

Of these, the European Central Bank faces the trickiest¹⁰ challenge, because it has acted as, in effect, the backstop to euro-zone bond markets, a mechanism¹¹ that otherwise the currency bloc¹² still lacks.

其中，欧洲央行面临最棘手的挑战。因为，它实际上扮演了欧元区债券市场兜底者的角色，这是该货币区域仍然缺乏的一种机制。

But the main safety valve lies elsewhere, with banks and investors.

但是，主要的安全阀在别处，在银行和投资者哪里。

Bitter experience has shown that debt-funded assets can magnify losses, causing financial crises.

痛苦的经历表明，债务支撑的资产能够放大损失，引发金融危机。

For this reason banks must be able to withstand any reversal of today's high asset prices and low defaults.

因此，银行必须能够经得起当今这种高资产价格和低违约的任何反转。

That means raising bank capital in places where it is too low, especially the euro zone, and not backsliding on strenuous¹³ “stress tests” as America's Treasury¹⁴ proposes.

这意味着在银行资本金太低的地方，尤其是欧元区，提高银行资本金；并且还要像美国财政部所建议的那样不要返回到耗费大量精力的“压力测试”上面。

In the end, however, there may be no escape for investors from the low future returns and even losses that high asset prices imply.

然而，对于投资者来说，最后可能无法逃脱高资产价格所暗示的低未来回报甚至是损失。

They and regulators should take a leaf out of “The intelligent Investor”, and make sure that they have a margin¹⁵ of safety.

他们和监管者应当根据《聪明的投资者》照本宣科，确保自己有一个安全边际。

1 jolt   

v.（使）摇动，（使）震动，（使）颠簸

参考例句：

• We were worried that one tiny jolt could worsen her injuries.我们担心稍微颠簸一下就可能会使她的伤势恶化。
• They were working frantically in the fear that an aftershock would jolt the house again.他们拼命地干着，担心余震可能会使房子再次受到震动。

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

4 perils   

极大危险( peril的名词复数 )； 危险的事（或环境）

参考例句：

• The commander bade his men be undaunted in the face of perils. 指挥员命令他的战士要临危不惧。
• With how many more perils and disasters would he load himself? 他还要再冒多少风险和遭受多少灾难？

5 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

6 mandate   

n.托管地；命令，指示

参考例句：

• The President had a clear mandate to end the war.总统得到明确的授权结束那场战争。
• The General Election gave him no such mandate.大选并未授予他这种权力。

7 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

8 precedent   

n.先例，前例；惯例；adj.在前的，在先的

参考例句：

• Is there a precedent for what you want me to do?你要我做的事有前例可援吗？
• This is a wonderful achievement without precedent in Chinese history.这是中国历史上亘古未有的奇绩。

9 leisurely   

adj.悠闲的；从容的，慢慢的

参考例句：

• We walked in a leisurely manner,looking in all the windows.我们慢悠悠地走着，看遍所有的橱窗。
• He had a leisurely breakfast and drove cheerfully to work.他从容的吃了早餐，高兴的开车去工作。

10 trickiest   

adj.狡猾的( tricky的最高级 )；（形势、工作等）复杂的；机警的；微妙的

参考例句：

• Many believe this is the trickiest area to navigate. 很多人认为这是最难驾驭的领域。 来自时文部分
• Establishing confidence in a new monetary system was the trickiest part. 建立对新货币体系的信心是其最棘手的部分。 来自互联网

11 mechanism   

n.机械装置；机构，结构

参考例句：

• The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
• The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。

12 bloc   

n.集团；联盟

参考例句：

• A solid bloc of union members support the decision.工会会员团结起来支持该决定。
• There have been growing tensions within the trading bloc.贸易同盟国的关系越来越紧张。

13 strenuous   

adj.奋发的，使劲的；紧张的；热烈的，狂热的

参考例句：

• He made strenuous efforts to improve his reading. 他奋发努力提高阅读能力。
• You may run yourself down in this strenuous week.你可能会在这紧张的一周透支掉自己。

14 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

15 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。