2018年经济学人 世界经济:特朗普别“撞车”(1)

 

Don't crash it

特朗普别“撞车”

A trade war is the worst of many threats to global growth

贸易战是全球经济发展最大的威胁

Look at the headlines, and you would struggle to believe that the global economy is in good health.

看看头条新闻，你很难相信全球经济形式良好。

President Donald Trump¹ continues to fire off volleys in his inchoate² trade war,

唐纳德·特朗普总统在其近期发起的贸易战中继续加薪助燃，

throwing financial markets into turmoil³ and drawing retaliation⁴.

让金融市场处于一片混乱，并引起更多经济报复。

The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, an activity that usually ends in a recession in America.

美联储正在提高利率，这一行为通常以美国经济衰退告终。

Tighter credit and a rising dollar are squeezing emerging markets,

信贷紧缩和美元升值正在挤压新兴市场，

some of which, such as Argentina, are under severe stress.

某些新兴市场，如阿根廷，面临巨大的压力。

Yet the world economy is thriving.

但世界经济正蓬勃发展。

Growth has slowed slightly since 2017, but still seems to be beating the languid pace set in the five years before that.

自2017年以来，经济增长有所减缓，但是仍然比之前五年的经济增速快。

America may even be speeding up, thanks to Mr Trump's tax cuts and spending binge.

美国经济增长甚至会增速，这都要归功于特朗普的减税政策以及财政支出的增加。

A higher oil price, which in past economic cycles might have been a drag,

过去，油价上涨可能成为经济周期的累赘，

is today spurring investment in the production of American shale⁵.

现如今却会刺激美国页岩气的生产投资。

Some forecasts have growth exceeding 4% in the second quarter of 2018.

有人预测2018年第二季度经济增长会超过4%。

This sugar rush, however, brings dangers.

然而这种带来甜头的增速，也会引来危机。

The first is that it provides temporary political cover for Mr Trump's recklessness.

首先是给特朗普的鲁莽草率提供了政治庇护。

The second is that, if America accelerates and the rest of the world slows,

其次是若美国经济增速加快，而其他地区增速放缓，

widening differentials in interest rates would push up the dollar still more.

利率差异加大，会导致美元继续升值。

That would worsen problems in emerging markets

如此一来，新兴市场的问题加剧，

and further provoke Mr Trump by making it harder for him to achieve his goal of balanced trade.

特朗普会更加恼火于难以实现平衡贸易的目标。

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 inchoate   

adj.才开始的，初期的

参考例句：

• His dreams were senseless and inchoate.他的梦想根本行不通，很不成熟。
• Her early works are inchoate idea,nothing but full of lush rhetoric.她的早期作品都不太成熟，除了华丽的词藻外就没什麽内容了。

3 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

4 retaliation   

n.报复，反击

参考例句：

• retaliation against UN workers 对联合国工作人员的报复
• He never said a single word in retaliation. 他从未说过一句反击的话。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 shale   

n.页岩，泥板岩

参考例句：

• We can extract oil from shale.我们可以从页岩中提取石油。
• Most of the rock in this mountain is shale.这座山上大部分的岩石都是页岩。