2018年经济学人 世界经济:特朗普别“撞车”(3)

 

The bigger issue is the vast disruption that would occur in the transition to more autarky.

更大的问题在于，在向更自给自足的过渡中会发生巨大的混乱。

America's economy is configured for designing iPhones, not assembling their components¹;

美国的经济适用于设计苹果手机，而不是装配其零件；

the innards of its cars and planes cross national borders many times before the final product is ready.

在最终汽车和飞机的成品做好前，其内部结构要多次越过美国边境。

Faced with tariffs², firms have to redirect labour and capital to replace imports.

面对关税，企业不得不重新调整劳动力和资本来替代进口。

Some analysts³ attribute Mr Trump⁴'s presidency⁵ to the economic shock from trade with China after 2000.

某些分析家将特朗普当选总统归因于2000年后与中国的贸易往来带来的经济冲击。

The turmoil⁶ caused by reversing globalisation would be just as bad.

全球化逆转带来的混乱也同样糟糕。

One estimate puts American job losses from a trade war at 550,000.

据估计，美国因贸易战而失业的人数达5.5万人。

The hit to China would also be severe.

中国遭受的打击也很严重。

Any adjustment would be prolonged by Mr Trump's unpredictability.

任何调整都会因特朗普的不可预测性而延期。

Without knowing whether tariffs might rise or fall, what company would think it wise to invest in a new supply chain?

在不知道关税会上升还是下降的情况下，哪家公司会认为投资于新的供应链是明智之选呢？

It is difficult to imagine such a realignment without a global recession.

如果没有全球经济衰退，很难想象这样的调整。

Tariffs temporarily push up inflation, making it harder for central banks to cushion the blow.

关税暂时性加大了通货膨胀，这使得央行更难减轻冲击。

The flight to safety accompanying any global downturn would keep the dollar strong, even as America's fiscal⁷ stimulus⁸ peters out after 2019.

即使美国的财政刺激在2019年之后逐渐停息，伴随着全球经济衰退的求稳之路仍会使美元保持坚挺。

So be wary⁹.

因此要小心谨慎。

The trade war may yet be contained, to the benefit of the world economy.

为了世界经济的利益，贸易战可能还会被遏制。

But America is the engine of global growth. In Mr Trump, a dangerous driver is at the wheel.

但是美国是世界经济的引擎。在特朗普身上，就好像看到了一个高危司机在开车。

1 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

2 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

5 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

6 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

7 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

8 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

9 wary   

adj.谨慎的，机警的，小心的

参考例句：

• He is wary of telling secrets to others.他谨防向他人泄露秘密。
• Paula frowned,suddenly wary.宝拉皱了皱眉头，突然警惕起来。