2020年经济学人 美国犯罪数据激增?(3)

The police usually benefit from a natural dividend¹ in the autumn. Homicide rates tend to fall in September as the weather cools and teenagers head back to classrooms. But Mr Herrmann fears the country might not be as lucky this year. Many schools are unlikely to reopen. Courts have been shuttered, making it harder for prosecutors² to stop gang violence. Michael LiPetri, chief of crime-control strategies at the NYPD, says the share of shootings involving gang members in his city has more than doubled since last year. And, as Jens Ludwig, director of the University of Chicago Crime Lab, points out, America’s covid-induced recession will take a serious toll³ on city finances, putting further pressure on the budgets of police departments.

警察通常在秋天会自然而然地获益。九月份，随着天气转暖，青少年重返教室，凶杀率往往会下降。但赫尔曼担心，美国今年可能没有那么幸运。许多学校不太可能重开。法庭已经关闭，这使检察官更难阻止帮派暴力。纽约警察局犯罪控制策略警监迈克尔·利佩特里表示，自去年以来，纽约涉及帮派成员的枪击案数量增加了一倍多。而且，正如芝加哥大学犯罪实验室主任詹斯·路德维希所指出的那样，美国由新冠肺炎引发的经济衰退将会使城市财政损失惨重，也加重了警察部门预算方面的压力。

Drastically cutting police funding without adequately investing in other areas, such as social work, would be risky⁴. A recent working paper by Tanaya Devi and Roland Fryer, both economists⁵ at Harvard University, analysed the impact of state and federal investigations⁶ into police departments. It found that, though most probes had a small positive impact in reducing crime, “viral” ones prompted by national scrutiny⁷ appear to cause the police to retreat too far. When Freddie Gray was killed by the Baltimore police in 2015, the national media and federal investigators⁸ poured into the city. Police officers, fearful for their jobs, pulled back. They stopped fewer people in the streets and arrested fewer suspects. And homicides rose.

如果不对社会工作等其他领域进行充分投资，大幅削减警察经费将存在风险。哈佛大学经济学家Tanaya Devi和Roland Fryer在最近发表的一份工作报告中，分析了州和联邦调查对警察部门的影响。报告发现，尽管大多数的州和联邦调查对减少犯罪的积极影响很小，但由国家审查引发的“病毒性”调查似乎会导致警方大幅退却。2015年，当弗雷迪·格雷被巴尔的摩警方击毙时，全国媒体和联邦调查人员涌入该市。警察们担心会对自己的工作产生影响，于是退却了。他们在街上拦住的人少了，逮捕的嫌疑犯也少了。而凶杀案增多了。

1 dividend   

n.红利，股息；回报，效益

参考例句：

• The company was forced to pass its dividend.该公司被迫到期不分红。
• The first quarter dividend has been increased by nearly 4 per cent.第一季度的股息增长了近 4%。

2 prosecutors   

检举人( prosecutor的名词复数 )； 告发人； 起诉人； 公诉人

参考例句：

• In some places,public prosecutors are elected rather than appointed. 在有些地方，检察官是经选举而非任命产生的。 来自口语例句
• You've been summoned to the Prosecutors' Office, 2 days later. 你在两天以后被宣到了检察官的办公室。

3 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

4 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 investigations   

（正式的）调查( investigation的名词复数 )； 侦查； 科学研究； 学术研究

参考例句：

• His investigations were intensive and thorough but revealed nothing. 他进行了深入彻底的调查，但没有发现什么。
• He often sent them out to make investigations. 他常常派他们出去作调查。

7 scrutiny   

n.详细检查，仔细观察

参考例句：

• His work looks all right,but it will not bear scrutiny.他的工作似乎很好，但是经不起仔细检查。
• Few wives in their forties can weather such a scrutiny.很少年过四十的妻子经得起这么仔细的观察。

8 investigators   

n.调查者，审查者( investigator的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• This memo could be the smoking gun that investigators have been looking for. 这份备忘录可能是调查人员一直在寻找的证据。
• The team consisted of six investigators and two secretaries. 这个团队由六个调查人员和两个秘书组成。 来自《简明英汉词典》