财富杂志 AI如何让老药新用?(4)

GNS has raised a total of $38 million over the years—

这些年来，GNS共筹集了3800万美元——

from Amgen Ventures, the venture capital arm of the drug giant, along with Celgene and a variety of other investors—

资金来自制药巨头的风险投资机构Amgen Ventures以及赛尔基因和各种各样的投资者——

to build and fine-tune its models of disease. And in a recent series of trials, first published in 2017 in the medical journal The Lancet,

建立并调整其疾病模型。并且近期的一系列试验于2017年首次发表于医学期刊《柳叶刀》，

GNS has detailed¹ REFS's potential when applied² to a disease such as Parkinson's—

在试验中，GNS详细说明了REFS应用于一种疾病，如帕金森氏综合症时的潜能，

an ailment³ in which pleiotropic factors render existing treatments wildly hit-or-miss in their effectiveness.

在治疗这种疾病时，多效性因素致使现有治疗方法的效果参差不齐。

With Parkinson's, the network of interactions set in motion by defective⁴ genes⁵ has a particular shape to it,

对于帕金森氏综合症，有缺陷基因调动的交互网络具有特定的形状，

and the breakdown⁶ of motor functioning is the most reliable indication of its progression.

并且运动机能的中断是其进展中最可靠的指示。

Feeding the genetic⁷ data of Parkinson's sufferers and a control group into REFS

将帕金森氏综合症患者的基因数据和一个对照组的基因数据输入REFS中

helped GNS generate over 100 computer models depicting⁸ what might be going on as motor function deteriorates⁹.

可以帮助GNS生成了100多个计算机模型，用以描绘运动机能恶化时可能发生的情况。

The models can uncover previously¹⁰ unknown genetic mutations that may contribute to the speedup of deterioration¹¹.

这些模型可以揭露之前未知的基因突变，这些突变可能导致疾病恶化的加速。

But that's just the first part. GNS has used those findings to create 5,000 different computer simulations of randomized control trials,

但这仅仅是第一部分。GNS利用这些发现创造了5000个随机对照试验的不同计算机模拟

each aiming to predict how fast the disease would progress with varying approaches to treatment.

每一个的目的都是预测，在不同治疗方式下，这种疾病的进展速度会有多快。

Such speed--testing can be vastly more economical than seeking the same result through controlled human trials.

这样的速度测试比通过控制人体试验寻求同样的结果要经济得多。

And GNS, in partnership¹² with other drugmakers, is now applying similar approaches to treatments for diabetes¹³,

并且GNS正在和其他制药公司合作，将类似的治疗方法应用于糖尿病、

ALS, multiple myeloma, and breast cancer, among other diseases.

肌萎缩侧所硬化症、多发性骨髓瘤和乳腺癌等疾病。

"We now have the ability to create and construct, on the computer, representations of human patients and their diseases

“现在我们有能力在电脑上创建人类患者以及他们所患疾病的表现，

such that we can now probe, drug by drug, care management intervention¹⁴ by care management intervention,

这样一来，我们就可以对每一种药物以及每一种护理管理干预进行探究，

and say what treatments work for which patient," says Colin Hill, CEO of GNS.

并得知哪一种治疗方法对哪种病人是有效的，”GNS的CEO Colin Hill说到。

The simulation, in other words, is not just finding correlations¹⁵: It is answering What if questions.

换句话说，这种模拟并不仅仅是寻找关联性：它是在回答‘假使将会怎么样’的问题。

What if we had given drug A instead of drug B to patient X?

如果我们给病人X服用药物A而不是药物B会怎么样？

That ability to simulate and answer counterfactuals is a recent arrival in the practice of A.I.

在AI实践中，这种模拟和回答反设事实的能力是最近才出现的。

It owes its growing importance in large part to GNS's technology adviser¹⁶,

其日益增长的重要性很大程度上要归功于GNS的技术顾问，

Judea Pearl, a longtime A.I. researcher and professor of computer science at UCLA.

Judea Pearl，AI研究人员，兼UCLA计算机科学部教授。

In a popular volume published last year called The Book of Why,

在去年出版的畅销书《The Book of Why》中，

Pearl describes how true intelligence ascends¹⁷ from merely noticing patterns, which machine learning does in spades,

Pearl描述了真正的智能是如何从仅注意机器学习的模式

to being able to express counterfactual reasoning about what would have happened, based on those patterns.

提升到能够根据这些模式，对可能要发生的事情进行反事实推理的。

Data alone, disconnected from any idea of a mechanism¹⁸, doesn't provide real insight.

仅凭数据，不与任何机制的想法相联系，就无法提供真正的洞察力。

"Data is profoundly dumb about causality," claims Pearl. Hill puts it more bluntly: "Deep learning is not that deep."

“数据对因果关系是极其愚蠢的，”Pearl声称。Hill则说得更直接：“深度学习没那么深奥。”

Daniel Cohen, now 67, spent his childhood in Tunisia's heterogeneous¹⁹ society of Jews, Christians²⁰, Muslims,

丹尼尔·科恩现年67岁，他的童年是在突尼斯犹太人、基督教徒以及穆斯林组成的混杂社会中度过，

"living all together in a very elegant and pacific way."

“他们以一种非常优雅而平和的方式生活在一起。”

He credits that experience for his taste for "things that are not complicated, but complex."

他将这一段经历归功于自己对“并不难懂却很复杂事情”的喜好”。

When he was 9, Cohen's family immigrated²¹ to Paris, where he pursued the piano avidly²².

9岁时，科恩的家人移民到了巴黎，在那里他对钢琴有着强烈的追求。

He switched to medicine once he realized he might have a greater impact as a scientist than a musician, but the passion has not left him.

当他意识到作为一名科学家可能比音乐家更有影响力时，他转向了医学，但激情并没有离去。

He has been a guest conductor at the Royal Philharmonic in London and dreams of leading that ensemble²³ in Tchaikovsky's Symphony Pathetique.

他是伦敦皇家爱乐乐团的客座指挥，并梦想着在柴可夫斯基的《悲怆交响曲》演奏中带领着这个乐团。

"The predisposition to orchestra conductor, CEO, and scientist are all controlled by the same genes," he jokes.

他开玩笑说到，“对交响乐指挥、CEO和科学家的倾向都是由同一种基因所控制的。”

1 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

2 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

3 ailment   

n.疾病，小病

参考例句：

• I don't have even the slightest ailment.我什么毛病也没有。
• He got timely treatment for his ailment.他的病得到了及时治疗。

4 defective   

adj.有毛病的，有问题的，有瑕疵的

参考例句：

• The firm had received bad publicity over a defective product. 该公司因为一件次品而受到媒体攻击。
• If the goods prove defective, the customer has the right to compensation. 如果货品证明有缺陷， 顾客有权索赔。

5 genes   

n.基因( gene的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• You have good genes from your parents, so you should live a long time. 你从父母那儿获得优良的基因，所以能够活得很长。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Differences will help to reveal the functions of the genes. 它们间的差异将会帮助我们揭开基因多种功能。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 生物技术的世纪

6 breakdown   

n.垮，衰竭；损坏，故障，倒塌

参考例句：

• She suffered a nervous breakdown.她患神经衰弱。
• The plane had a breakdown in the air,but it was fortunately removed by the ace pilot.飞机在空中发生了故障，但幸运的是被王牌驾驶员排除了。

7 genetic   

adj.遗传的，遗传学的

参考例句：

• It's very difficult to treat genetic diseases.遗传性疾病治疗起来很困难。
• Each daughter cell can receive a full complement of the genetic information.每个子细胞可以收到遗传信息的一个完全补偿物。

8 depicting   

描绘，描画( depict的现在分词 )； 描述

参考例句：

• a painting depicting the Virgin and Child 一幅描绘童贞马利亚和圣子耶稣的画
• The movie depicting the battles and bloodshed is bound to strike home. 这部描写战斗和流血牺牲的影片一定会取得预期效果。

9 deteriorates   

恶化，变坏( deteriorate的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• After a few years' planting, the quality of the potato crop deteriorates. 土豆种了几年之后就会退化。
• Virus activity deteriorates in plasma stored at room temperature. 在室温下储藏的血浆中病毒活动逐渐衰退。

10 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

11 deterioration   

n.退化；恶化；变坏

参考例句：

• Mental and physical deterioration both occur naturally with age. 随着年龄的增长，心智和体力自然衰退。
• The car's bodywork was already showing signs of deterioration. 这辆车的车身已经显示出了劣化迹象。

12 partnership   

n.合作关系，伙伴关系

参考例句：

• The company has gone into partnership with Swiss Bank Corporation.这家公司已经和瑞士银行公司建立合作关系。
• Martin has taken him into general partnership in his company.马丁已让他成为公司的普通合伙人。

13 diabetes   

n.糖尿病

参考例句：

• In case of diabetes, physicians advise against the use of sugar.对于糖尿病患者，医生告诫他们不要吃糖。
• Diabetes is caused by a fault in the insulin production of the body.糖尿病是由体內胰岛素分泌失调引起的。

14 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

15 correlations   

相互的关系( correlation的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• One would expect strong and positive correlations between both complexes. 人们往往以为这两个综合体之间有紧密的正相关。
• The correlations are of unequal value. 这些对应联系的价值并不相同。

16 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

17 ascends   

v.上升，攀登( ascend的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• The azygos vein ascends in the right paravertebral gutter. 奇静脉在右侧脊柱旁沟内上升。 来自辞典例句
• The mortality curve ascends gradually to a plateau at age 65. 死亡曲线逐渐上升，到65岁时成平稳状态。 来自辞典例句

18 mechanism   

n.机械装置；机构，结构

参考例句：

• The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
• The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。

19 heterogeneous   

adj.庞杂的；异类的

参考例句：

• There is a heterogeneous mass of papers in the teacher's office.老师的办公室里堆满了大批不同的论文。
• America has a very heterogeneous population.美国人口是由不同种族组成的。

20 Christians   

n.基督教徒( Christian的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Christians of all denominations attended the conference. 基督教所有教派的人都出席了这次会议。
• His novel about Jesus caused a furore among Christians. 他关于耶稣的小说激起了基督教徒的公愤。

21 immigrated   

v.移入( immigrate的过去式和过去分词 )；移民

参考例句：

• He immigrated from Ulster in 1848. 他1848年从阿尔斯特移民到这里。 来自辞典例句
• Many Pakistanis have immigrated to Britain. 许多巴基斯坦人移居到了英国。 来自辞典例句

22 avidly   

adv.渴望地，热心地

参考例句：

• She read avidly from an early age—books, magazines, anything. 她从小就酷爱阅读——书籍、杂志，无不涉猎。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Her melancholy eyes avidly scanned his smiling face. 她说话时两只忧郁的眼睛呆呆地望着他的带笑的脸。 来自汉英文学 - 家（1-26） - 家（1-26）

23 ensemble   

n.合奏(唱)组；全套服装；整体，总效果

参考例句：

• We should consider the buildings as an ensemble.我们应把那些建筑物视作一个整体。
• It is ensemble music for up to about ten players,with one player to a part.它是最多十人演奏的合奏音乐，每人担任一部分。