财富杂志 为什么新兴市场的股票值得买入(1)

For a chorus of the leading voices in investing, it was the monster rally whose time had come.

对于投资界的领军人物而言，大牛市的时代已经到来。

For about five years, a group of sages¹, including value-investing boldface names Jeremy Grantham, Mark Mobius, and Rob Arnott,

在大约五年的时间里，包括价值投资界知名人物Jeremy Grantham、Mark Mobius以及Rob Arnott在内的

kept pronouncing that shares of companies in emerging markets offered the world's rarest blend of attractions:

一群大佬一直宣称，新兴市场中的公司股票具备世界上最罕见的吸引力：

deep-discount prices compared with U.S. equities², cheap currencies,

与美国股市相比，其价格大幅折让、货币贬值，

and the prospect³ of robust⁴ growth driven by a burgeoning⁵ population of youthful middle-class workers and consumers—

以及由不断增长的新兴中产阶级和消费者驱动的强劲增长的前景——

all factors that long promised a powerful comeback in the beaten-down sector⁶.

长期以来，所有这些因素都预示着这个不被看好的行业将强势回归。

Two years ago, their prophecies came true. Valuations in emerging markets—

两年前，他们的预言成真。新兴市场——

a group of some 25 countries defined by low but growing per capita incomes, rapid industrialization, and zigzagging⁷ currencies—took flight.

约有25个国家，其定义是人均收入低但仍在增长，工业化迅速，货币走势曲折——的估值大幅上升。

In the 24 months beginning in late January 2016,

在自2016年1月起的24个月内，

shares in the benchmark MSCI emerging markets index surged 85%, beating the S&P 500 by 31 percentage points.

基准MSCI新兴市场指数飙升85%，比标准普尔500指数高出31个百分点。

Despite the sprint⁸, emerging markets looked as if they had plenty of room to run.

尽管经历了冲刺期，但新兴市场似乎还有充足的运作空间。

Not only did they still boast a lot more earnings⁹ per dollars paid for equities in the developed world,

他们不仅吹嘘在发达国家，每一美元支付给股票的收益要高得多，

they also now benefited from what they had long lacked: surging optimism and powerful momentum¹⁰.

而且现在还从长期或缺的东西中获益：高涨的乐观情绪以及强大的动力。

Then the revival¹¹ suddenly collapsed¹². After peaking on Jan. 26, the MSCI dropped 22%, seven times the fall in the S&P 500,

然后复兴突然崩塌。1月26日达到巅峰后，MSCI下跌22%，是标准普尔500指数跌幅的七倍，

crushed by negative news about a looming¹³ U.S. trade war with China and debt crises in Turkey and Argentina.

这是受到了即将爆发的中美贸易战，以及土耳其和阿根廷债务危机等负面消息的影响。

But for investors¹⁴ rummaging¹⁵ for bargains, the drop is a gift.

但对于搜寻便宜货的投资者来说，跌幅是一件礼物。

It has sent the gap in valuations between stocks in developed and developing countries back to near-record levels,

这使得发达和发展中国家股票之间的估值差距回到接近纪录水平，

making the always-speculative index particularly attractive. As Arnott, chief of Research Affiliates¹⁶,

让这个总是投机的指数尤其具有吸引力。锐联资产管理公司是一家为互惠基金

a firm that designs and manages indexes for mutual¹⁷ funds and ETFs, told Fortune: "Emerging markets are the buy of the decade."

和ETF设计和管理指数的一家公司，其负责人告诉《财富》：“新兴市场是这十年最值得买入的。”

In a letter to clients, Grantham, cofounder of asset-management giant GMO, said he was putting half his family's retirement¹⁸ funds into the sector.

在致客户的一封信中，资产管理巨头GMO的联合创始人Grantham表示，他将一半的家庭退休基金都投入了这个行业。

As for Mobius, a pioneer of emerging-markets investing who retired¹⁹ earlier in the year from Franklin Templeton Investments,

至于Mobius，他是新兴市场投资的先驱，今年年初从富兰克林邓普顿投资公司退休，

he's raising more than $500 million to take advantage of what he calls the "phenomenal opportunity" caused by the recent turmoil²⁰ in the sector.

他正在筹集5亿多美元，以利用最近该行业动荡带来的“非凡机会”。

Emerging markets offer a classic high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity.

新兴市场提供了一个经典的高风险、高回报的投资机会。

The countries that fit the description represent 40% of the world's economic output as measured by gross domestic product

按照国内生产总值衡量，符合描述的国家占世界经济产出的40%，

but just 12% of global stock market value. The potential for high growth is associated with countries

但只占全球股市价值的12%。高增长的潜力与从严重依赖农业和原材料出口

moving rapidly from heavy dependence²¹ on agricultural and raw-materials exports into finished goods manufacturing and services.

迅速转向制成品制造业和服务业的国家有关。

That said, higher growth prospects²² come with greater volatility²³, especially owing to high political, currency, and other risks.

但更高的增长前景伴随着更大的波动性，特别是由于较高的政治、汇率和其他风险。

This explains the valuation/GDP mismatch, and it's also why emerging-markets investment strategies fall in and out of favor so frequently.

这就解释了估值和GDP之间的错误搭配，也是新兴市场投资策略频繁起起落落的原因。

1 sages   

n.圣人( sage的名词复数 )；智者；哲人；鼠尾草（可用作调料）

参考例句：

• Homage was paid to the great sages buried in the city. 向安葬在此城市的圣哲们表示敬意。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Confucius is considered the greatest of the ancient Chinese sages. 孔子被认为是古代中国最伟大的圣人。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

2 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

3 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

4 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

5 burgeoning   

adj.迅速成长的，迅速发展的v.发芽，抽枝( burgeon的现在分词 )；迅速发展；发（芽），抽（枝）

参考例句：

• Our company's business is burgeoning now. 我们公司的业务现在发展很迅速。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• These efforts were insufficient to contain the burgeoning crisis. 这些努力不足以抑制迅速扩散的危机。 来自辞典例句

6 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

7 zigzagging   

v.弯弯曲曲地走路，曲折地前进( zigzag的现在分词 )；盘陀

参考例句：

• She walked along, zigzagging with her head back. 她回头看着，弯弯扭扭地向前走去。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• We followed the path zigzagging up the steep slope. 我们沿着小径曲曲折折地爬上陡坡。 来自互联网

8 sprint   

n.短距离赛跑；vi. 奋力而跑，冲刺；vt.全速跑过

参考例句：

• He put on a sprint to catch the bus.他全速奔跑以赶上公共汽车。
• The runner seemed to be rallied for a final sprint.这名赛跑者似乎在振作精神作最后的冲刺。

9 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

10 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

11 revival   

n.复兴，复苏，（精力、活力等的）重振

参考例句：

• The period saw a great revival in the wine trade.这一时期葡萄酒业出现了很大的复苏。
• He claimed the housing market was showing signs of a revival.他指出房地产市场正出现复苏的迹象。

12 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

13 looming   

n.上现蜃景（光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼）v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看，在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望

14 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

15 rummaging   

翻找，搜寻( rummage的现在分词 )； 海关检查

参考例句：

• She was rummaging around in her bag for her keys. 她在自己的包里翻来翻去找钥匙。
• Who's been rummaging through my papers? 谁乱翻我的文件来着？

16 affiliates   

附属企业( affiliate的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• She affiliates with an academic society. 她是某学术团体的成员。
• For example, these security affiliates participated in the floating of 19,000,000,000 of issues in 1927. 例如，这些证券发行机构在1927年的流通证券中，就提供了一百九十亿美元的证券。

17 mutual   

adj.相互的，彼此的；共同的，共有的

参考例句：

• We must pull together for mutual interest.我们必须为相互的利益而通力合作。
• Mutual interests tied us together.相互的利害关系把我们联系在一起。

18 retirement   

n.退休，退职

参考例句：

• She wanted to enjoy her retirement without being beset by financial worries.她想享受退休生活而不必为金钱担忧。
• I have to put everything away for my retirement.我必须把一切都积蓄起来以便退休后用。

19 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

20 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

21 dependence   

n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属

参考例句：

• Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
• He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。

22 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

23 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。