2023年经济学人 如何投资人工智能

 

 

    Finance & economics

    财经版块

    Machine earning

    机器赚钱

    How to invest in artificial intelligence: Private startups or public markets?

    如何投资人工智能：私人初创公司还是公开市场？

    It has been a torrid 18 months for investors² who bet on tech.

    对于押注科技行业的投资者来说，过去的18个月很不好过。

    SoftBank, a Japanese investment firm that epitomised the 2010s boom in venture capital for companies with rapid-growth ambitions, is still smarting from the shift to a world of higher interest rates and lower corporate³ valuations.

    2010年代，对有快速增长雄心的公司出现了风险投资热潮，日本投资公司软银就是其中的典型代表，但现在它仍在为世界转向高利率、低企业估值而痛苦不已。

    But there is one area in which the firm, run by Son Masayoshi, its charismatic founder⁴, wants to peek⁵ above the parapet: investments in artificial intelligence (AI).

    但有一个领域，这家公司（其极富人格魅力的创始人为孙正义）还想冒险窥探一下：人工智能投资。

    The advances of generative-AI platforms, such as ChatGPT, have left just about every investor¹ discussing what to make of the incipient⁶ industry, and which firms it might upturn⁷.

    ChatGPT等生成式人工智能平台的进步，让几乎每个投资者都在讨论如何理解这个新兴行业，以及它可能会颠覆哪些公司。

    Mr Son sees parallels with the early period of the internet.

    孙正义看到了生成式人工智能与早期互联网的相似之处。

    Generative AI could provide a new pipeline⁸ of initial public offerings—and the foundation for the next generation of mega-cap tech firms.

    生成式人工智能可能会提供一条新的IPO赛道，也会为下一代超高市值的科技公司打下基础。

    Investors face two questions.

    但投资者面临两个问题。

    The first is which frontier technologies will make market leaders a fortune.

    第一个问题是，哪些前沿技术会让市场领军者大赚一笔。

    That is difficult enough.

    这个问题已经够难的了。

    The second, establishing whether the value will accrue⁹ to upstarts backed by venture capital or existing technology giants, is at least as tricky¹⁰.

    第二个问题是，确定技术的价值是会由风险资本支持的初创公司获得，还是由现在的科技巨头获得，这个问题至少也同样棘手。

    Nobody knows if it is better to have the best chatbot or plenty of customers—having a head start in a whizzy new tech is not the same as being able to make money from it.

    没有人知道是拥有最好的聊天机器人更好，还是拥有大量客户更好，在先进的新技术中抢占先机并不等同于能够从这个技术中赚钱。

    Indeed, lots of the value of revolutionary innovation is often captured by existing giants.

    事实上，革命性创新的许多价值往往被现有的巨头捕捉到。

    Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are three of the seven largest listed companies in America, worth a combined $3.4trn.

    Alphabet、亚马逊和Meta是美国七家最大的上市公司中的三家，总市值为3.4万亿美元。

    They were founded between 1994 and 2004, emerging at a time when internet technology was new and people were spending an increasing amount of time online.

    它们成立于1994年至2004年，那时互联网技术刚刚兴起、人们上网的时间越来越长。

    Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce giant, is another similar example (SoftBank’s early $20m stake in the company helped cement Mr Son’s reputation as an investor).

    中国电子商务巨头阿里巴巴是另一个类似的例子(软银早期以2000万美元入股该公司，从而巩固了孙正义作为投资者的声誉)。

    Spotting tech trends, and developing the best platforms, generated a gargantuan¹¹ amount of value for early and even not-so-early investors.

    发现技术趋势并开发最好的平台，这为早期甚至不算很早期的投资者创造了巨大的价值。

    Legacy¹² firms struggled to jump on the bandwagon.

    传统公司很难加入这一潮流。

    Will the story be the same this time around?

    这一次还会是同样的故事吗？

    The insights of Clayton Christensen, a management guru who pioneered a theory of innovation just as the internet giants were bursting onto the scene, can provide a useful guide.

    管理大师克莱顿·克里斯滕森的见解可以提供有用的指导。就在互联网巨头涌现之际，克里斯滕森开创了一种创新理论。

    Christensen noted¹³ that smaller companies often gain traction¹⁴ in low-end markets and entirely¹⁵ new ones, which the largest incumbents¹⁶ eschew¹⁷.

    他指出，较小的公司往往在低端市场和全新的市场最有吸引力，而现有的大公司则会避开这些市场。

    The incumbents focus on deploying¹⁸ new technology for their existing customers and lines of business.

    现有公司专注于为其已有的客户和业务线部署新技术。

    They are not incompetent¹⁹ or ignorant of technological²⁰ progress.

    他们并非在技术进步方面无能为力或一无所知。

    Instead, they follow the seemingly correct path from a profit-maximising perspective—until it is too late and they are fatally undermined.

    相反，他们从利润最大化的角度出发，走上了看似正确的道路，直到为时已晚，逐渐被削弱到致命的地步。

    Investors like Mr Son, excited about the future of startups that focus on AI, are implicitly²¹ presuming that a period of disruptive innovation is under way.

    像孙正义这样的投资者对专注于人工智能的初创企业的未来感到兴奋，他们暗示，颠覆性创新的时期正在到来。

    But most of the recent excitement about generative-AI platforms has focused on their potential as a new technology to be deployed²², not as companies which could open up brand new markets.

    但最近人们对生成式人工智能平台的兴奋，大多集中在它们作为一种可应用的新技术的潜力上，而不是作为可以打开全新市场的公司。

    In the case of other recent technological innovations, incumbents have won the day.

    在最近的其他技术创新中，现有公司赢得了胜利。

    Elad Gil, a venture capitalist, has noted that the value of previous advances in machine learning, the broader category of which generative AI is a part, have accrued²³ almost entirely to incumbents.

    风险投资者埃拉德·吉尔指出，机器学习(包含生成式人工智能的更广泛的大类)之前的进步所产生的价值几乎全部归于现有公司。

    The early internet startups have benefited, as have Microsoft and chip firms like Nvidia and Micron.

    早期的互联网初创公司有受益，但微软和英伟达和美光等芯片公司也同样受益。

    The earlier stages of machine learning produced no listed firms that might be considered the Amazon or Google of their niche²⁴.

    机器学习的早期阶段没有产生可能被视为这一利基市场上的亚马逊或谷歌的上市公司。

    Christensen’s insights make clear that revolutionary innovation does not always end up being revolutionary in business terms.

    克里斯滕森的见解清楚地表明，革命性创新并不总是在商业上具有革命性。

    Yet existing tech firms are now spending enormous sums on AI, suggesting they should be well-placed if the tech does turn out to revolutionise business.

    然而，现有的科技公司正在人工智能上投入巨额资金，这表明，如果这项技术真的能给商业带来革命性变化，那么这些公司应该处于有利地位。

    It is possible an investment in a broad index fund tracking existing listed tech firms will end up outperforming the equivalent investment in private, strictly²⁵ AI-focused startups.

    投资跟踪现有上市科技公司的宽基指数基金，最终收益可能会超过向严格专注于人工智能的非上市初创公司投资相等金额的收益。

    Theories about why innovation is sometimes disruptive and sometimes not are more often discussed by students of business and management than stockpickers.

    为什么创新有时具有颠覆性，有时不具有颠覆性，关于这个问题的理论更多的是工商管理专业的学生在讨论，而不是选股票的人。

    But the difference between the two possibilities is crucial in assessing whether the next generation of listed tech companies, with market capitalisations in the hundreds of billions of dollars, is to be found among private AI firms.

    但在评估下一代市值数千亿美元的上市科技公司是否会在非上市人工智能公司中产生时，这两种可能性之间的差异至关重要。

    As things stand, it looks more likely that the market value of the technology will end up as a new string to the bow of already giant tech firms.

    就目前情况来看，这项技术的市场价值最终更有可能成为本已庞大的科技巨头之弓上的一根新弦。

1 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

4 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

5 peek   

vi.偷看，窥视；n.偷偷的一看，一瞥

参考例句：

• Larry takes a peek out of the window.赖瑞往窗外偷看了一下。
• Cover your eyes and don't peek.捂上眼睛，别偷看。

6 incipient   

adj.起初的，发端的，初期的

参考例句：

• The anxiety has been sharpened by the incipient mining boom.采矿业初期的蓬勃发展加剧了这种担忧。
• What we see then is an incipient global inflation.因此，我们看到的是初期阶段的全球通胀.

7 upturn   

n.情况好转

参考例句：

• Experts have forecast an upturn in the stock market.专家已预测股票市场价格有上升趋势。
• The economy is experiencing an upturn.经济正在好转。

8 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

9 accrue   

v.(利息等)增大，增多

参考例句：

• Ability to think will accrue to you from good habits of study.思考能力将因良好的学习习惯而自然增强。
• Money deposited in banks will accrue to us with interest.钱存在银行，利息自生。

10 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

11 gargantuan   

adj.巨大的，庞大的

参考例句：

• My gargantuan,pristine machine was good for writing papers and playing solitaire,and that was all.我那庞大的、早期的计算机只适合写文章和玩纸牌游戏，就这些。
• Right away,I realized this was a mistake of gargantuan proportions.我立刻意识到这是一个巨大的错误。

12 legacy   

n.遗产，遗赠；先人(或过去)留下的东西

参考例句：

• They are the most precious cultural legacy our forefathers left.它们是我们祖先留下来的最宝贵的文化遗产。
• He thinks the legacy is a gift from the Gods.他认为这笔遗产是天赐之物。

13 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

14 traction   

n.牵引；附着摩擦力

参考例句：

• I'll show you how the traction is applied.我会让你看如何做这种牵引。
• She's injured her back and is in traction for a month.她背部受伤，正在作一个月的牵引治疗。

15 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

16 incumbents   

教区牧师( incumbent的名词复数 )； 教会中的任职者

参考例句：

• In general, incumbents have a 94 percent chance of being reelected. 通常现任官员有94%的几率会再次当选。
• This arangement yields a wonderful gain to incumbents. 这种安排为在职人员提供了意外的得益。

17 eschew   

v.避开，戒绝

参考例句：

• Eschew fattening foods if you want to lose weight.你如想减肥，就不要吃致肥的食物。
• Good kid should eschew bad company.好孩子应避免交坏朋友。

18 deploying   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的现在分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Provides support for developing and deploying distributed, component-based applications. 为开发和部署基于组件的分布式应用程序提供支持。
• Advertisement, publishing, repair, and install-on-demand are all available when deploying your application. 在部署应用程序时提供公布、发布、修复和即需即装功能。

19 incompetent   

adj.无能力的，不能胜任的

参考例句：

• He is utterly incompetent at his job.他完全不能胜任他的工作。
• He is incompetent at working with his hands.他动手能力不行。

20 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

21 implicitly   

adv. 含蓄地, 暗中地, 毫不保留地

参考例句：

• Many verbs and many words of other kinds are implicitly causal. 许多动词和许多其他类词都蕴涵着因果关系。
• I can trust Mr. Somerville implicitly, I suppose? 我想，我可以毫无保留地信任萨莫维尔先生吧？

22 deployed   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Tanks have been deployed all along the front line. 沿整个前线已部署了坦克。
• The artillery was deployed to bear on the fort. 火炮是对着那个碉堡部署的。

23 accrued   

adj.权责已发生的v.增加( accrue的过去式和过去分词 )；（通过自然增长）产生；获得；（使钱款、债务）积累

参考例句：

• The company had accrued debts of over 1000 yuan. 该公司已积欠了1000多万元的债务。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I have accrued a set of commemoration stamps. 我已收集一套纪念邮票。 来自《简明英汉词典》

24 niche   

n.壁龛；合适的职务(环境、位置等)

参考例句：

• Madeleine placed it carefully in the rocky niche. 玛德琳小心翼翼地把它放在岩石壁龛里。
• The really talented among women would always make their own niche.妇女中真正有才能的人总是各得其所。

25 strictly   

adv.严厉地，严格地；严密地

参考例句：

• His doctor is dieting him strictly.他的医生严格规定他的饮食。
• The guests were seated strictly in order of precedence.客人严格按照地位高低就座。