2023年经济学人 美联储加息的两难困境

 

美联储加息的两难困境

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Of great interest

    利率问题

    As inflation cools, the Federal Reserve faces a bigger dilemma¹.

    随着通胀降温，美联储面临着更大的两难境地。

    It was never in doubt.

    这一点从未被怀疑过。

    In the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, investors² assigned a probability of nearly 99% to the central bank raising interest rates once again.

    在美联储最近一次会议召开前夕，投资者认为美联储再次加息的可能性接近99%。

    On July 26th policymakers duly fulfilled those expectations, with their 11th increase in 12 meetings, together making for America’s sharpest course of monetary³ tightening⁴ in four decades.

    7月26日，政策制定者如期实现了这些预期，他们在第12次会议上宣布第11次加息，使之成为美国40年来最严格的货币紧缩进程。

    The central bank’s next steps, however, are clouded by uncertainty⁵.

    然而，央行的下一步举措被不确定性所笼罩。

    Some economists⁶ are convinced that this will be the Fed’s last rate rise in this cycle.

    一些经济学家确信，这将是美联储在本轮周期中的最后一次加息。

    Inflation has come down from its highs in 2022, with consumer prices rising by just 3% year-on-year in June.

    通货膨胀率已经从2022年的高点回落，6月份消费者价格同比仅上涨3%。

    Core inflation—which strips out volatile⁷ food and energy costs—has been a little more stubborn, but even it has started to soften⁸, in a sign that underlying⁹ price pressures are easing.

    剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀略显顽固，但就连核心通胀也开始疲软，这表明潜在的价格压力正在缓解。

    This opens a pathway for the Fed to relent, hopefully guiding America to a much-discussed soft landing.

    这为美联储打开了一条缓和道路，有望引导美国走向备受讨论的软着陆。

    Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley, a bank, expects an “extended hold” for the Fed, presaging¹⁰ a rate cut at the start of next year.

    摩根士丹利银行的艾伦·曾特纳预计美联储将“延长暂停时间”，预示明年年初将会降息。

    Others are not so sure.

    其他人则不那么确定。

    Inflation has consistently wrong-footed optimists¹¹ over the past couple of years.

    过去几年，通胀一直令乐观主义者措手不及。

    Were, for instance, energy prices to rally, consumers and businesses could quickly revise up their expectations for inflation, nudging the Fed towards another rate increase.

    例如，如果能源价格上涨，消费者和企业可能会迅速上调他们对通胀的预期，这将推动美联储再一次加息。

    If an incipient¹² rebound¹³ in housing prices gathers pace, that would also fuel concerns.

    如果房价开始反弹的步伐加快，这也会加剧人们的担忧。

    Vigour¹⁴ in the labour market adds to the worries, because fast-rising wages feed into inflation.

    劳动力市场的活跃加剧了人们的担忧，因为快速上涨的工资会加剧通胀。

    Remarkably¹⁵, the Fed’s aggressive actions have barely affected¹⁶ American workers thus far: the unemployment rate today is 3.6%, identical to its level in March 2022 when the Fed raised rates for the first time in this cycle.

    值得注意的是，到目前为止，美联储的激进行动几乎没有影响到美国劳动者：现在的失业率为3.6%，与2022年3月美联储在本轮周期中首次加息时的水平相同。

    The pace of tightening would normally be expected to drive up unemployment.

    紧缩的步伐通常被认为会推高失业率。

    Instead, the recovery from the covid-19 pandemic, including an increase in the number of willing workers, seems to have cushioned the economy.

    相反，新冠肺炎疫情之后的复苏，包括愿意工作的劳动力数量增加，似乎为经济提供了缓冲。

    Opposing views among economists are mirrored within the Fed itself.

    经济学家之间的观点对立也反映在美联储内部。

    For the past two years America’s central bankers have spoken in similar terms about the peril¹⁷ of inflation, and have been nearly unanimous when it comes to big rate moves.

    在过去的两年里，美国的中央银行官员们在谈到通货膨胀的危险时都用了类似的措辞，而且在利率大幅变动的问题上也几乎是观点一致的。

    In recent months, however, divisions have surfaced.

    然而，近几个月来，分歧已经显现。

    Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, has come to represent the more hawkish¹⁸ voices.

    美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒已开始代表更强硬的声音。

    This month he warned that the central bank could continue raising rates until there is sustained improvement in inflation, dismissing the over-optimism bred by the weaker-than-expected price figures for June.

    本月，他警告称，央行可能会继续加息，直到通胀持续改善，并未理会因6月份低于预期的价格数据而滋生的过度乐观情绪。

    “One data point does not make a trend,” he warned.

    他警告说：“一个数据点并不能说明趋势。”

    At the other end of the spectrum¹⁹ is Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, who said even before the latest rate increase that the central bank could stop hiking.

    另一个极端是美联储亚特兰大分行行长拉斐尔·博斯蒂克，他甚至在最近一次加息之前就表示，央行可以停止加息。

    “Gradual disinflation will continue,” he assured listeners in late June.

    他在6月下旬向听众保证：“通胀逐步放缓将持续下去。”

    Even if the latest rate increase does end up marking the peak for the Fed, Jerome Powell, its chairman, has maintained a hawkish tilt²⁰ in his pronouncements.

    即使最近一次加息确实标志美联储的加息措施达到顶点，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔依然在他的声明中保持了强硬倾向。

    “What our eyes are telling us is that policy has not been restrictive enough for long enough,” he told a press conference following the rate rise.

    他在加息后的新闻发布会上表示：“我们看到的情况告诉我们，政策的抑制力度还不够大，时间还不够长。”

    Financial conditions have loosened in recent months.

    近几个月来，金融状况有所放松。

    The S&P 500, an index of America’s biggest stocks, is up nearly one-fifth from its lows in March, when a handful of regional banks collapsed²¹.

    标准普尔500指数（美国最大股票的指数）从三月份的低点上涨了近五分之一，三月份时有几家地区性银行倒闭。

    With his sterner tone, Mr Powell may want to restrain investors from getting ahead of themselves, which could add to inflationary momentum²².

    鲍威尔的语气较为严厉，他可能希望阻止投资者过早行动，因为这可能会加剧通胀势头。

    Central bankers wanting to preserve their reputations as inflation-fighters may prefer to err²³ towards toughness.

    央行官员们想要维护自己作为通胀斗士的声誉，他们可能更倾向于采取强硬态度。

    Steven Englander of Standard Chartered, a bank, likens the Fed to a weather forecaster who thinks there is a 30% chance of rain.

    渣打银行的史蒂文·英格兰德将美联储比作认为有30%的可能性会下雨的天气预报员。

    It still makes sense to highlight the potential for wet weather, because predicting sun but getting rain is perceived as worse than predicting rain and ending up with sun.

    强调阴雨天气的可能性仍然是有道理的，因为预测晴天结果下雨，被认为比预测下雨结果晴天更糟糕。

    In practice, the Fed is sure to be flexible, reacting to economic data.

    在实践中，美联储肯定会灵活行事，对经济数据做出反应。

    It can look north of the American border for an example of the impossibility of maintaining a fixed²⁴ policy stance.

    它可以把目光投向美国边境以北，那里有不可能保持固定政策立场的例子。

    The Bank of Canada had stopped its rate-rise cycle in January, thinking that inflation had crested²⁵.

    加拿大银行在一月份停止了加息周期，认为通货膨胀已经达到顶峰。

    But in June it was forced to resume tightening because economic growth had remained too hot, and inflation too sticky, for comfort.

    但在6月份，加拿大银行被迫重新收紧政策，因为经济增长仍然过热，通胀仍然过于顽固，令人不快。

    Ultimately, though, there are no risk-free choices for the Fed.

    归根结底，美联储并不存在无风险的选择。

    What is seen as the more doveish option—holding rates steady for the rest of this year—will in fact take on an increasingly hawkish hue²⁶ if inflation does continue to recede²⁷.

    如果通胀真的持续回落，被视为较为温和的选择--在今年剩余时间内保持利率不变--实际上将呈现出越来越强硬的色彩。

    Unchanged nominal²⁸ rates would be ever more restrictive in real terms (assuming that inflationary expectations diminish alongside waning²⁹ price pressures).

    保持不变的名义利率将实际上变得更有抑制性(假设通胀预期逐渐降低，同时价格压力也逐渐减弱)。

    In such a scenario³⁰ central bankers wishing to maintain their current policy stance should therefore think about cutting rates.

    在这种情况下，希望维持当前政策立场的央行官员应该考虑降息。

    When inflation was sky-high, the Fed’s task was tough yet its decisions quite straightforward³¹: officials did not really have much choice but to raise rates.

    当通胀处于极高水平时，美联储的任务艰巨，但其决定非常直截了当：官员们除了加息之外真的没有多少选择。

    From here on, its task looks easier but its decisions more fraught³².

    从这之后，美联储的任务看起来更容易，但决定更引人担忧。

1 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

4 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

5 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

6 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

8 soften   

v.(使)变柔软；(使)变柔和

参考例句：

• Plastics will soften when exposed to heat.塑料适当加热就可以软化。
• This special cream will help to soften up our skin.这种特殊的护肤霜有助于使皮肤变得柔软。

9 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

10 presaging   

v.预示，预兆( presage的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• There is talk of the failed deal presaging a break-up. 对于交易失败的就预示着解散的说法不过是传言。 来自互联网

11 optimists   

n.乐观主义者( optimist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Even optimists admit the outlook to be poor. 甚至乐观的人都认为前景不好。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Optimists reckon house prices will move up with inflation this year. 乐观人士认为今年的房价将会随通货膨胀而上涨。 来自辞典例句

12 incipient   

adj.起初的，发端的，初期的

参考例句：

• The anxiety has been sharpened by the incipient mining boom.采矿业初期的蓬勃发展加剧了这种担忧。
• What we see then is an incipient global inflation.因此，我们看到的是初期阶段的全球通胀.

13 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

14 vigour   

（=vigor）n.智力，体力，精力

参考例句：

• She is full of vigour and enthusiasm.她有热情，有朝气。
• At 40,he was in his prime and full of vigour.他40岁时正年富力强。

15 remarkably   

ad.不同寻常地，相当地

参考例句：

• I thought she was remarkably restrained in the circumstances. 我认为她在那种情况下非常克制。
• He made a remarkably swift recovery. 他康复得相当快。

16 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

17 peril   

n.(严重的)危险；危险的事物

参考例句：

• The refugees were in peril of death from hunger.难民有饿死的危险。
• The embankment is in great peril.河堤岌岌可危。

18 hawkish   

adj. 鹰派的, 强硬派的

参考例句：

• My staff's advice that first day was amazingly hawkish. 在第一天，我的僚属们的意见是令人吃惊的鹰派意见。
• Antiwar groups fear Barack Obama may create hawkish Cabinet. 反战团体担心巴拉克·奥巴马可以创建强硬派内阁。

19 spectrum   

n.谱，光谱，频谱；范围，幅度，系列

参考例句：

• This is a kind of atomic spectrum.这是一种原子光谱。
• We have known much of the constitution of the solar spectrum.关于太阳光谱的构成，我们已了解不少。

20 tilt   

v.(使)倾侧；(使)倾斜；n.倾侧；倾斜

参考例句：

• She wore her hat at a tilt over her left eye.她歪戴着帽子遮住左眼。
• The table is at a slight tilt.这张桌子没放平，有点儿歪.

21 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

22 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

23 err   

vi.犯错误，出差错

参考例句：

• He did not err by a hair's breadth in his calculation.他的计算结果一丝不差。
• The arrows err not from their aim.箭无虚发。

24 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

25 crested   

adj.有顶饰的，有纹章的，有冠毛的v.到达山顶（或浪峰）( crest的过去式和过去分词 )；到达洪峰，达到顶点

参考例句：

• a great crested grebe 凤头䴙䴘
• The stately mansion crested the hill. 庄严的大厦位于山顶。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

26 hue   

n.色度；色调；样子

参考例句：

• The diamond shone with every hue under the sun.金刚石在阳光下放出五颜六色的光芒。
• The same hue will look different in different light.同一颜色在不同的光线下看起来会有所不同。

27 recede   

vi.退(去)，渐渐远去；向后倾斜，缩进

参考例句：

• The colleges would recede in importance.大学的重要性会降低。
• He saw that the dirty water had begun to recede.他发现那污浊的水开始往下退了。

28 nominal   

adj.名义上的；(金额、租金)微不足道的

参考例句：

• The king was only the nominal head of the state. 国王只是这个国家名义上的元首。
• The charge of the box lunch was nominal.午餐盒饭收费很少。

29 waning   

adj.（月亮）渐亏的，逐渐减弱或变小的n.月亏v.衰落( wane的现在分词 )；（月）亏；变小；变暗淡

参考例句：

• Her enthusiasm for the whole idea was waning rapidly. 她对整个想法的热情迅速冷淡了下来。
• The day is waning and the road is ending. 日暮途穷。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

30 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

31 straightforward   

adj.正直的，坦率的；易懂的，简单的

参考例句：

• A straightforward talk is better than a flowery speech.巧言不如直说。
• I must insist on your giving me a straightforward answer.我一定要你给我一个直截了当的回答。

32 fraught   

adj.充满…的，伴有(危险等)的；忧虑的

参考例句：

• The coming months will be fraught with fateful decisions.未来数月将充满重大的决定。
• There's no need to look so fraught!用不着那么愁眉苦脸的！