2023年经济学人 卢布暴跌会如何影响俄乌战争

 

卢布暴跌会如何影响俄乌战争

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Putin’s problem

    普京的问题

    What does the rouble’s collapse¹ mean for Russia’s ability to wage war?

    卢布暴跌对俄罗斯发动战争的能力意味着什么？

    On August 14th Russia’s rouble slipped past the value of 100 to the American dollar, meaning it was worth less than a solitary² cent—and was the cheapest it had been since the immediate³ aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine.

    8月14日，俄罗斯卢布汇率跌破了1美元兑100卢布的水平，这意味着卢布的价值还不到1美分，也是俄乌战争爆发后的最低水平。

    The currency is one of the world’s worst performers this year, outdone only by perennially⁴ troublesome peers like the Argentine peso, Venezuelan bolivar and Turkish lira.

    卢布是今年全球表现最差的货币之一，仅次于阿根廷比索、委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔和土耳其里拉等长期深陷麻烦的货币。

    The next day Russian monetary⁵ policymakers intervened, scrambling⁶ to respond to events for the first time since early in the war.

    第二天，俄罗斯货币政策制定者出手干预，自战争之初以来首次争先恐后地对事件做出回应。

    The Bank of Russia raised interest rates by 3.5 percentage points, to 12%.

    俄罗斯央行将利率上调3.5个百分点，至12%。

    Although the rouble rose a little on the news, it is still, at 96 to the dollar, far cheaper than its level of 60 or so this time last year.

    尽管卢布在这一消息传出后略有上涨，但目前1美元兑96卢布的汇率仍远低于去年这个时候1美元兑60卢布的水平。

    Rate rises are unlikely to stem the currency’s decline soon, with consequences for Vladimir Putin’s ability to wage war.

    加息不太可能很快阻止卢布的下跌，这将影响弗拉基米尔·普京发动战争的能力。

    Currency collapses⁷ are often prompted by nervous international investors⁸ or fleeing domestic capital.

    货币崩盘往往是由紧张的国际投资者或国内资本外逃引发的。

    Yet trading in the rouble, especially against the dollar, remains⁹ thin.

    然而，卢布的交易，尤其是对美元的交易，仍然不多。

    Sanctions and capital controls have left Russia isolated¹⁰.

    制裁和资本管制让俄罗斯变得孤立。

    Instead of reflecting the aggregated¹¹ opinions of speculators, the rouble swings according to the textbook economic model, reflecting the relative strength of exports (which earn foreign currency) and imports (which must be paid for with these earnings¹²).

    卢布没有反映出投机者的总体态度，而是按照教科书上的经济模型进行波动，反映了出口(赚取外汇)和进口(必须用这些外汇支付)的相对强弱。

    Since the G7 imposed a $60 price cap on Russian oil in December, the value of exports has slumped¹³.

    自去年12月七国集团对俄罗斯石油实施60美元的价格上限以来，俄罗斯的出口额大幅下降。

    Russia’s earnings were 15% lower in dollar terms from January to July than during the same period last year, a fact not entirely¹⁴ explained by a lower global oil price.

    以美元计算，俄罗斯今年1月至7月的收入比去年同期下降了15%，这一事实并不能完全用全球油价下跌来解释。

    Meanwhile, imports have surged as the government prosecutes¹⁵ its war, and buys the goods to do so.

    与此同时，随着政府继续进行战争，并为此购买商品，进口额激增。

    In the first seven months of the year Russia’s current-account surplus, a measure of how much more foreign currency the country receives than spends, fell by 86%, to $25bn.

    今年前七个月，俄罗斯的经常账户盈余下降了86%，降至250亿美元。经常账户盈余是衡量一国外汇收入超过支出多少的一个指标。

    On the one hand, this suggests the oil-price cap is having some impact.

    一方面，这表明石油价格上限在产生一些影响。

    Attempts to dodge¹⁷ the policy are not making up for being forced to sell oil at a discount.

    试图规避这一政策并不能弥补被迫折价出售石油带来的损失。

    On the other hand, it suggests Russia is finding ways to import goods.

    另一方面，这表明俄罗斯正在寻找进口商品的方法。

    German exports to Russia’s friendlier neighbours, for instance, have shot up suspiciously.

    例如，德国对俄罗斯更友好的邻国的出口额出现了蹊跷的大幅增长。

    A cheap currency raises the rouble value of the government’s oil revenues, but it also raises the cost of the imports.

    廉价货币提高了政府出口石油收入的卢布价值，但也提高了进口成本。

    In June Andrei Belousov, Russia’s deputy prime minister, said the value at the time, of 80-90 roubles a dollar, was best for the country.

    6月，俄罗斯副总理安德烈·别洛乌索夫表示，当时1美元兑80-90卢布的汇率对俄罗斯来说是最好的。

    When the rouble was far stronger last year, the Russian government was happy to use it as evidence Western sanctions were failing.

    去年卢布走强时，俄罗斯政府欣然将其作为西方制裁失败的证据。

    That confidence has now gone.

    这种信心现在已经消失了。

    On August 14th Maxim¹⁸ Oreshkin, an adviser¹⁹ to Mr Putin, wrote a column stressing the need for a strong rouble and blaming its collapse on the central bank.

    8月14日，普京的顾问马克西姆·奥雷什金写了一篇专栏文章，强调卢布走强的必要性，并将卢布的崩溃归咎于中央银行。

    The emergency rate rise helped the rouble only a little.

    紧急加息对卢布的帮助微乎其微。

    Russia’s isolation²⁰ means higher interest rates are unlikely to tempt¹⁶ “hot money” (speculative funds seeking short-term returns).

    俄罗斯的孤立地位意味着，较高的利率不太可能吸引“热钱”(寻求短期回报的投机性资金)。

    The focus may now turn to the domestic capital that is at risk of fleeing.

    焦点现在可能转向有外逃风险的国内资本。

    Strengthening capital controls could stanch²¹ the flow, but would take time to have an impact.

    加强资本管制可能会遏制资本流动，但需要时间才能产生效果。

    As this piece was published, the government was reportedly due to meet to decide whether to force exporters to sell foreign-currency earnings.

    本文发表时，据报道，俄罗斯政府将召开会议，决定是否强制出口商出售外汇收入。

    Direct intervention²² in currency markets is another option.

    直接干预外汇市场是另一种选择。

    The central bank has scaled back purchases of foreign currency.

    央行已经缩减了外币购买量。

    Under a budgetary rule, Russia used to buy other currencies in exchange for roubles if it had a surplus of oil and gas revenue, in order to build up reserves.

    根据一项预算规定，俄罗斯过去如果有石油和天然气收入盈余，就会购买其他货币来换取卢布，以建立储备。

    On August 9th this rule was abandoned.

    8月9日，这一规定被废除。

    According to official figures, the country had foreign-currency reserves of $587bn at the start of August, suggesting the central bank has the firepower to prop²³ up the rouble.

    官方数据显示，截至8月初，俄罗斯拥有5870亿美元的外汇储备，这表明俄罗斯央行拥有支撑卢布的足够火力。

    The problem is that some $300bn of these reserves are frozen by the West.

    问题是，其中约3000亿美元的外汇储备已被西方冻结。

    Unless the government can secure more oil revenue, it faces a choice.

    除非俄罗斯政府能从石油获得更多的外汇收入，否则它将面临一个选择。

    The state could cut back on spending, including on its armed forces, in order to reduce imports.

    国家可以削减开支，包括军队开支，以减少进口。

    Alternatively, the civilian²⁴ economy will take the pain.

    或者让民间经济承担痛苦。

    Rising inflation and higher interest rates will weaken the purchasing power of ordinary Russians, forcing them to buy fewer foreign goods.

    不断上升的通胀和更高的利率将削弱普通俄罗斯人的购买力，迫使他们减少购买外国商品。

    Thus the fate of Russia’s economy will not be decided²⁵ by the judgments²⁶ of international financiers but by the depths of Mr Putin’s aggression²⁷.

    因此俄罗斯经济的命运将不会由国际金融家的判断决定，而将由普京的战争强度决定。

    It is a far more unhappy situation in which to be trapped.

    这是一种更加令人不快的困境。

1 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

2 solitary   

adj.孤独的，独立的，荒凉的；n.隐士

参考例句：

• I am rather fond of a solitary stroll in the country.我颇喜欢在乡间独自徜徉。
• The castle rises in solitary splendour on the fringe of the desert.这座城堡巍然耸立在沙漠的边际，显得十分壮美。

3 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

4 perennially   

adv.经常出现地；长期地；持久地；永久地

参考例句：

• He perennially does business abroad. 他常年在国外做生意。 来自辞典例句
• We want to know what is perennially new about the world. 我们想知道世上什么东西永远是新的。 来自互联网

5 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

6 scrambling   

v.快速爬行( scramble的现在分词 )；攀登；争夺；（军事飞机）紧急起飞

参考例句：

• Scrambling up her hair, she darted out of the house. 她匆忙扎起头发，冲出房去。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• She is scrambling eggs. 她正在炒蛋。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 collapses   

折叠( collapse的第三人称单数 )； 倒塌； 崩溃； （尤指工作劳累后）坐下

参考例句：

• This bridge table collapses. 这张桥牌桌子能折叠。
• Once Russia collapses, the last chance to stop Hitler will be gone. 一旦俄国垮台，抑止希特勒的最后机会就没有了。

8 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

9 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

10 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。

11 aggregated   

a.聚合的，合计的

参考例句：

• He aggregated her to a political party. 他吸收她参加一政党。
• The audiences aggregated a million people. 观众总数达100万人。

12 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

13 slumped   

大幅度下降，暴跌( slump的过去式和过去分词 )； 沉重或突然地落下[倒下]

参考例句：

• Sales have slumped this year. 今年销售量锐减。
• The driver was slumped exhausted over the wheel. 司机伏在方向盘上，疲惫得睡着了。

14 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

15 prosecutes   

检举、告发某人( prosecute的第三人称单数 )； 对某人提起公诉； 继续从事（某事物）； 担任控方律师

参考例句：

• In Great Britain, the Attorney General prosecutes for the Grown in certain cases. 在英国，检察总长在某些案件中代表王室进行公诉。 来自口语例句

16 tempt   

vt.引诱，勾引，吸引，引起…的兴趣

参考例句：

• Nothing could tempt him to such a course of action.什么都不能诱使他去那样做。
• The fact that she had become wealthy did not tempt her to alter her frugal way of life.她有钱了，可这丝毫没能让她改变节俭的生活习惯。

17 dodge   

v.闪开，躲开，避开；n.妙计，诡计

参考例句：

• A dodge behind a tree kept her from being run over.她向树后一闪，才没被车从身上辗过。
• The dodge was coopered by the police.诡计被警察粉碎了。

18 maxim   

n.格言，箴言

参考例句：

• Please lay the maxim to your heart.请把此格言记在心里。
• "Waste not,want not" is her favourite maxim.“不浪费则不匮乏”是她喜爱的格言。

19 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

20 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

21 stanch   

v.止住（血等）；adj.坚固的；坚定的

参考例句：

• Cuttlebone can be used as a medicine to stanch bleeding.海螵蛸可以入药，用来止血。
• I thought it my duty to help stanch these leaks.我认为帮助堵塞漏洞是我的职责。

22 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

23 prop   

vt.支撑；n.支柱，支撑物；支持者，靠山

参考例句：

• A worker put a prop against the wall of the tunnel to keep it from falling.一名工人用东西支撑住隧道壁好使它不会倒塌。
• The government does not intend to prop up declining industries.政府无意扶持不景气的企业。

24 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

25 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

26 judgments   

判断( judgment的名词复数 )； 鉴定； 评价； 审判

参考例句：

• A peculiar austerity marked his judgments of modern life. 他对现代生活的批评带着一种特殊的苛刻。
• He is swift with his judgments. 他判断迅速。

27 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。