2023年经济学人 世界经济进入隐居消费时代(1)

 

 

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Apart, together

    一起分开生活

    The world economy has entered a new era, that of the hermit¹ consumer.

    世界经济进入了一个新时代：隐居消费时代。

    In some ways covid-19 was a blip.

    在某些方面，新冠肺炎只是暂时性的问题。

    After soaring in 2020, unemployment across the rich world quickly dropped to pre-pandemic lows.

    富裕国家的失业率在2020年飙升后，又迅速降至大流行前的低点。

    Countries re-attained their pre-covid GDP in short order.

    各国GDP也很快恢复到了疫情前的水平。

    And yet, more than two years after lockdowns were lifted, at least one change is enduring: consumer habits across the rich world have shifted decisively, and perhaps permanently².

    然而，在封控解除两年多后，至少有一个变化是持久的：富裕国家的消费者习惯已经发生了决定性的变化，这种变化可能是永久的。

    Welcome to the age of the hermit.

    欢迎来到隐居时代。

    Before covid, the share of consumer spending devoted³ to services was rising steadily⁴.

    在新冠之前，服务业占消费者支出的份额稳步上升。

    As societies became richer, they sought more luxury experiences, health care and financial planning.

    随着社会变得更加富裕，消费者寻求更多的奢侈体验、医疗保健和财务规划服务。

    Then in 2020 spending on services, from hotel stays to hair cuts, collapsed⁵.

    然后在2020年，从酒店住宿到理发的各类服务支出大幅下降。

    With people spending more time at home, demand for goods jumped, with a rush for computer equipment and exercise bikes.

    人们更长时间地待在家里，对商品的需求随之激增，比如电脑设备和健身自行车。

    Three years on, the share of spending devoted to services remains⁶ below its pre-covid level.

    三年过去了，在服务方面的支出占比仍低于疫情前的水平。

    Relative to its pre-covid trend, the decline is sharper still.

    与疫情前的趋势相比，下降的幅度更大。

    Rich-world consumers are spending around $600bn a year less on services than you might have expected in 2019.

    富裕世界的消费者每年在服务上的支出比2019年的预期水平要少约6000亿美元。

    In particular, people are less interested in leisure activities that take place outside the home, including hospitality and recreation.

    人们尤其对户外休闲活动的兴趣降低，包括酒店餐饮和各类娱乐。

    Money is being redirected to goods, ranging from durables⁷ like chairs and fridges, to things such as clothes, food and wine.

    资金被重新用于购买商品，从椅子和冰箱等耐用品，到衣服、食物和葡萄酒等商品。

    In countries that spent less time in lockdown, hermit habits have not become ingrained.

    在封控时间较短的国家，隐居习惯还没有变得根深蒂固。

    Elsewhere, though, the behaviour looks pathological.

    然而，在其他地方，隐居行为已变得有些不太正常。

    In the Czech Republic, which was whacked⁸ by covid, the services share is three percentage points below trend.

    在遭受新冠重创的捷克共和国，服务业所占的消费份额比疫情前的趋势低3个百分点。

    America is not far off.

    美国也快了。

    Japan has witnessed a 50% decline in restaurant bookings for client entertainment and other business purposes.

    日本用于客户招待等商务目的的餐厅预订量下降了50%。

    Pity the drunken salaryman staggering round Tokyo’s pleasure districts: he is an endangered species.

    那个摇摇晃晃地走在东京娱乐区的醉醺醺的上班族真是可怜：他已经是濒危物种了。

    At first glance, the figures are difficult to reconcile with the anecdotes⁹.

    第一眼看过去，这些数字与人们所说的情况并不相符。

    Isn’t it harder than ever to get a table at a restaurant?

    在餐厅订位子难道不是比以前更难了吗？

    Yet the true source of the crowding is not sky-high demand, but constrained¹⁰ supply.

    然而，拥挤的真正根源不是极高的需求，而是有限的供应。

    These days fewer people want to work in hospitality—in America employment in the industry remains lower than in 2019.

    如今，想在酒店餐饮业工作的人越来越少，在美国，该行业的就业人数仍低于2019年的水平。

    And pandemic disruption means many new hotels and restaurants that would have opened in 2020 and 2021 never did.

    大流行的破坏意味着，许多本应在2020年和2021年开业的新酒店和新餐厅并没有开成。

    The number of hotels in Britain, at around 10,000, has not grown since 2019.

    英国的酒店数量（约为1万家）自2019年以来一直没有增长。

1 hermit   

n.隐士，修道者；隐居

参考例句：

• He became a hermit after he was dismissed from office.他被解职后成了隐士。
• Chinese ancient landscape poetry was in natural connections with hermit culture.中国古代山水诗与隐士文化有着天然联系。

2 permanently   

adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地

参考例句：

• The accident left him permanently scarred.那次事故给他留下了永久的伤疤。
• The ship is now permanently moored on the Thames in London.该船现在永久地停泊在伦敦泰晤士河边。

3 devoted   

adj.忠诚的，忠实的，热心的，献身于...的

参考例句：

• He devoted his life to the educational cause of the motherland.他为祖国的教育事业贡献了一生。
• We devoted a lengthy and full discussion to this topic.我们对这个题目进行了长时间的充分讨论。

4 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

5 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

6 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

7 durables   

n.持久的，耐用的( durable的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Running at 50-year lows below trend. Move from durables to services consumption could be big. 在低于趋势线的50年最低水平下，从耐用品消费到服务消费的转变可能很大。 来自互联网
• The table below shows the consumer durables owned in Britain from 1972 to 1983. 该图表展现的是1972-1983十一年间英国耐久消费品的拥有量。 来自互联网

8 whacked   

a.精疲力尽的

参考例句：

• She whacked him with her handbag. 她用手提包狠狠地打他。
• He whacked me on the back and I held both his arms. 他用力拍拍我的背，我抱住他的双臂。

9 anecdotes   

n.掌故，趣闻，轶事( anecdote的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• amusing anecdotes about his brief career as an actor 关于他短暂演员生涯的趣闻逸事
• He related several anecdotes about his first years as a congressman. 他讲述自己初任议员那几年的几则轶事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 constrained   

adj.束缚的,节制的

参考例句：

• The evidence was so compelling that he felt constrained to accept it. 证据是那样的令人折服，他觉得不得不接受。
• I feel constrained to write and ask for your forgiveness. 我不得不写信请你原谅。