2023年经济学人 如何预测抛硬币(1)

 

    How to predict a coin toss

    如何预测抛硬币

    Coins are fair.Their tossers, less so.

    硬币是公平的。它们的抛掷者就没那么公平了。

    Legend holds that the city of Portland, Oregon, was nearly called Boston.

    传说俄勒冈州的波特兰市差点被称为波士顿。

    A coin toss in 1845 between Francis Pettygrove, who hailed from a different Portland, in Maine, and Asa Lovejoy, from Boston (the one in Massachusetts) eventually decided¹ the matter.

    1845年，来自缅因州另一个波特兰的弗朗西斯·佩蒂格罗夫和来自波士顿(马萨诸塞州的那个)的阿萨·洛夫乔伊之间的一次抛硬币最终决定了这件事。

    But things might have turned out differently, per Frantisek Bartos, a graduate student at the University of Amsterdam, if people were not such wobbly tossers.

    但是阿姆斯特丹大学的研究生弗兰蒂泽克·巴托斯认为，如果抛硬币的人不摇晃的话，事情可能会有不同的结果。

    Mr Bartos was interested in a prediction made by Persi Diaconis, Susan Holmes and Richard Montgomery, a group of American mathematicians².

    巴托斯先生对一组美国数学家佩尔西·戴康尼斯，苏珊·福尔摩斯和理查德·蒙哥马利所做的预测很感兴趣。

    In 2007 the trio analysed the physics of a flipping³ coin and noticed something intriguing⁴.

    2007年，三人组分析了抛硬币的物理过程，发现了一些有趣的现象。

    Besides sending it somersaulting end-over-end, most people impart a slight rotation⁵ to a coin.

    除了让硬币上下颠倒外，大多数人还会让硬币稍微旋转一下。

    That causes the axis⁶ about which the coin is flipping to drift while it is in the air, a phenomenon called precession.

    这会导致硬币在空中抛掷时所围绕的轴发生漂移，这种现象被称为旋进。

    After crunching⁷ the numbers, the physicists⁸ concluded that a coin thrown by a human should exhibit a subtle but persistent⁹ bias¹⁰.

    在计算了这些数字之后，物理学家们得出结论，人类投掷的硬币应该表现出微妙但持久的偏差。

    There was about a 51% chance that a coin would land the same way up as it had been prior to being thrown.

    大约有51%的几率，一枚硬币会以与投掷前相同的方式落下。

    If it was heads-up in the thrower’s hand, in other words, it would be slightly more likely to land heads-up too.

    换句话说，如果它在投掷者手中是头朝上的，那么它也更有可能头朝上落地。

    Or at least, that was the prediction.

    或者至少，这是预测的结果。

1 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

2 mathematicians   

数学家( mathematician的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Do you suppose our mathematicians are unequal to that? 你以为我们的数学家做不到这一点吗？ 来自英汉文学
• Mathematicians can solve problems with two variables. 数学家们可以用两个变数来解决问题。 来自哲学部分

3 flipping   

讨厌之极的

参考例句：

• I hate this flipping hotel! 我讨厌这个该死的旅馆！
• Don't go flipping your lid. 别发火。

4 intriguing   

adj.有趣的；迷人的v.搞阴谋诡计(intrigue的现在分词)；激起…的好奇心

参考例句：

• These discoveries raise intriguing questions. 这些发现带来了非常有趣的问题。
• It all sounds very intriguing. 这些听起来都很有趣。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 rotation   

n.旋转；循环，轮流

参考例句：

• Crop rotation helps prevent soil erosion.农作物轮作有助于防止水土流失。
• The workers in this workshop do day and night shifts in weekly rotation.这个车间的工人上白班和上夜班每周轮换一次。

6 axis   

n.轴，轴线，中心线；坐标轴，基准线

参考例句：

• The earth's axis is the line between the North and South Poles.地轴是南北极之间的线。
• The axis of a circle is its diameter.圆的轴线是其直径。

7 crunching   

v.嘎吱嘎吱地咬嚼( crunch的现在分词 )；嘎吱作响；（快速大量地）处理信息；数字捣弄

参考例句：

• The horses were crunching their straw at their manger. 这些马在嘎吱嘎吱地吃槽里的草。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The dog was crunching a bone. 狗正嘎吱嘎吱地嚼骨头。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 physicists   

物理学家( physicist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• For many particle physicists, however, it was a year of frustration. 对于许多粒子物理学家来说，这是受挫折的一年。 来自英汉非文学 - 科技
• Physicists seek rules or patterns to provide a framework. 物理学家寻求用法则或图式来构成一个框架。

9 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

10 bias   

n.偏见，偏心，偏袒；vt.使有偏见

参考例句：

• They are accusing the teacher of political bias in his marking.他们在指控那名教师打分数有政治偏见。
• He had a bias toward the plan.他对这项计划有偏见。