PBS高端访谈:有什么东西能打破叙利亚战争的僵局?

 　　JUDY WOODRUFF: On Israel's border, a morbid¹ anniversary passes this week for a raging war which has claimed more than 200,000 lives, and has left millions homeless.

　　Four years in, and there's no end in sight to the killing² in Syria. Just today, new government airstrikes hit a suburb of Damascus. And Syrian President Bashar al-Assad insisted again he's staying until his own countrymen decide otherwise.

　　PRESIDENT BASHAR AL-ASSAD, Syria (through interpreter): Whether they say I remain or not, the Syrian people have the final say on this particular matter. Anything that came from outside the borders was only words and interference that disappears after a while.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: That last was aimed at Secretary of State John Kerry. Sunday, on CBS, he suggested any effort toward a transition in Syria would include Assad after all.

　　JOHN KERRY, Secretary of State: I am convinced that, with the efforts of our allies and others, there will be increased pressure on Assad.

　　QUESTION: And you would be willing to negotiate with him?

　　JOHN KERRY: Well, we have to negotiate in the end.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Kerry's words raised eyebrows³, but U.S. officials quickly insisted President Obama's policy has not changed from this in 2012:

　　PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: President al-Assad has lost legitimacy⁴. He needs to step down.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: The push to oust⁵ Assad began as peaceful protests in March 2011, amid the Arab spring. But the regime launched a brutal⁶ crackdown against demonstrators that have, in turn, triggered a violent uprising across the country. Moderate rebels initially⁷ made some headway, but were hurt by internal divisions and a lack of Western support, and the intrusion of extremist groups like the al-Nusra Front.

　　At the same time, Iran and Russia bolstered⁸ Damascus with weapons, money and expertise⁹. And Iran's Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, sent thousands of fighters into Syria. Then, adding to the chaos¹⁰, the Islamic State group seized large sections of Northern Syria last summer.

　　Outside the White House yesterday, hundreds of expatriate Syrians, and Syrian-Americans, appealed for new action.

　　HADI AL-BAHRA, Former President, Syrian National Coalition¹¹: We need to treat the root cause of extremism and terrorism in the area, which is dictatorship and Assad regime itself.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: But two rounds of peace talks have already failed, and many of the protesters say it's crushing to watch helplessly.

　　HASNA KAZMOUZ, Syria: I always feel like, I hope it's a dream, I hope it's a dream. But — and I'm afraid even to come and connect with the people, because I don't want to see it, I don't want to think about its reality. But, unfortunately, it's a reality.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: And for now, the reality is that much of Syria has been blasted to ruins, as the war enters its fifth year.

　　So, when, if ever, will this conflict finally end? And how it will happen?

　　We hear from former U.S. Ambassador to Syria and current senior fellow at the Middle East institute Robert Ford¹². Hisham Melhem, he's Washington bureau chief for the Al-Arabiya news channel, and an individual who has had extensive experience working with the Syrian opposition¹³, Steve Heydemann. He's a vice¹⁴ president at the United States Institute of Peace.

　　Welcome, all of you, to the NewsHour.

　　Robert Ford, to you first. Where does this conflict stand today? Does either side or any side have the upper hand?

　　ROBERT FORD, Former U.S. Ambassador to Syria: It's a long, grueling war of attrition. Iran is sending in more forces.

　　Iran is sending in more arms. The opposition is receiving help from other outside states, and the war just grinds on. I don't see any end in sight, at least in the near term.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Hisham Melhem, do you agree?

　　HISHAM MELHEM, Al-Arabiya Television: Absolutely. This could grind on for a number of years, short of a decisive move on the part of the United States and its regional allies.

　　This could last for a long time, precisely¹⁵ because you don't have two opposing sides, as if we had in the American Civil War or in the Spanish Civil War in the 20th century. This is — it's becoming almost a war of all against all, as Thomas Hobbes used to say.

　　And that is why it is extremely difficult to allow it to continue like that, because this is going to touch the whole region. What happens in Syria is not going to stay in Syria. Syria is close to Southern Europe and Syria is not Afghanistan. And the five countries around Syria, all of them are friendly to the United States, and all of them are paying a tremendous price.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Steve Heydemann, what's your assessment¹⁶?

　　STEVEN HEYDEMANN, United States Institute of Peace: I tend to share the view that we are locked into a war of attrition. I think we do have opportunities to try to shorten this conflict through much more active, much more proactive diplomatic efforts, in particular on the part of the United States.

　　And I think we have to recognize that in the absence of those efforts, we are likely to see the conflict unfold for many, many years to come. It was very important that Secretary Kerry really indicated that he felt it is a priority to reignite a diplomatic process to try and bring the Syrian conflict to a negotiated settlement.

　　The real question is whether the U.S. has a strategy to act on the priority that Secretary Kerry expressed. So far, we haven't seen that, but it is a very important priority.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, let me ask each one of you, starting with you, Ambassador Ford.

　　What would an outside diplomatic intervention¹⁷ look like at this point?

　　ROBERT FORD: Couple of things.

　　First, the key regional states on all sides, because there are many states pumping in weapons and money to the opposing side's government and opposition, those states are going to need to agree on sort of the broad outline of what a settlement should be.

　　And it actually — I say broad outline, but it may have to be a bit more detailed¹⁸. We thought we had such an agreement in the summer of 2012, in June 2012, what then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came to an agreement with the Russians, with Arab countries, with European countries, with the United Nations on what such a settlement should look like. But the countries were unable to agree at the Geneva conference.

　　So I think we have got to go back and make sure that everybody agrees on the international framework. And the second part — and nobody has been able to achieve this yet — is, there is going to have to be an agreement among the regional states that are pumping in the weaponry that they will sanction the sides that break the agreed international framework, so that there is a price for not paying attention to what the international community wants to see happen.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Steve Heydemann, does that sound like the right approach to try to break through the stalemate?

　　STEVEN HEYDEMANN: I think we should also focus on what some of the opportunities might be to try and revive a process right now.

　　There's indications that the internal support for the regime is eroding¹⁹. We have seen very little success on the battlefield on the part of regime forces. We know that the proxy²⁰ states, Russia in particular, which has been an active supporter of Iran, is beginning to show signs of fatigue²¹ in sustaining that relationship.

　　So, while I do agree that the general approach that Ambassador Ford spelled out is the correct one, I wouldn't underestimate the extent to which the time that has passed since the first Geneva process may in fact leave us in a stronger position to move forward on a negotiation²² track than we were in January 2014.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Hisham Melhem, who should be at the negotiating table? Who is negotiating with whom?

　　HISHAM MELHEM: Well, before I answer that directly, this is predicated on the United States playing a decisive leading role.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: So, the U.S. has to be there?

　　HISHAM MELHEM: Absolutely the United States has to be there, and the United States has to push the regional powers that contributed to the mess in the first place, allowing armaments and volunteers to go to Syria unchecked, especially through the Turkey-Syrian border.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Right.

　　HISHAM MELHEM: What characterized American policy from the beginning was dithering, indecision, weakness, and confusion.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: And you're saying that has to change.

　　HISHAM MELHEM: That has to change. The United States can still help the opposition, the non-jihadi opposition. OK?

　　Any group we can deal with, short of supporting al-Qaida or ISIS, and any group that is going to — even Islamists, if they are not going to impose Islamic Sharia by force, these people will be at the table. Remnants of the regime will be at the table. Even if Assad is at the table at the beginning, in the end, there has to be a clear American position, from the opposition, from the Arab side, and from Turkey that Assad will have no future in Syria.

　　Then we can talk about serious transition. But the United States has to put the parts together. There's no leadership so far, and that's part of the problem.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Ambassador Ford, does that sound like the way you get from here to some kind of a productive conversation?

　　ROBERT FORD: It's an element. It's not the only element.

　　There has to be a great deal more pressure on the Syrian government itself. Thirteen months ago in Geneva, when Secretary Kerry was there, big international conference, the Syrian regime point-blank refused to negotiate any kind of political deal, point-blank refused.

　　So there is going to have to be a lot more pressure on the Syrian government to get them not only to go to the table, but to actual negotiate and be prepared to make some compromises, which is why it's important, even as the United States and our friends confront, fight the Islamic State in Iraq, confront, fight the Islamic State in Syria, ignoring the root cause of the Islamic State problem in Syria, ignoring the brutality²³ of the outside regime and ignoring the need to get to a negotiated deal actually will lead us nowhere.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Right.

　　And let me turn to Steve Heydemann, because many people are looking and saying who does the U.S. — who does anybody sit down with to represent the opposition anymore, because it's so fractured?

　　STEVEN HEYDEMANN: Well, there have been very, very interesting developments on the opposition side that, again, I think suggest some possibilities that the opposition, having taken far, far too long, wrapped up in internal struggles, is beginning to get its act together.

　　We have seen a couple of meetings take place in Cairo that have brought together a number of different factions²⁴ within the opposition. The Russians, who are now more proactive on the diplomatic front than the United States is, has also brought together a number of different groups within the opposition, very limited, but nonetheless brought them together in Moscow with regime representatives to try to lay the foundations for what could be another round of a Geneva process.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Do you see something tangible²⁵ happening in the next year?

　　HISHAM MELHEM: If the United States says, we're going to increase the training of the opposition, accelerate this process, and at the same time make it politically clear this man and his junta²⁶ have no place in the future of Syria.

　　You have to give that clear message to the Syrians. And then you can appeal the non-jihadists to your case — to the cause, because there are jihadists who are going to be alienated²⁷, and we stand up with the United States and others and the regional powers. But then you have to work again on those moderate opposition, who will believe that Syria is a country that should maintain pluralism, that all the minorities will be respected, there will be no persecution²⁸, and all that.

　　This is the political element that the United States should push, and the United States actually has been pushing, but not very forcefully.

　　JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, as we enter the fifth year, a lot of that has not happened yet, and we look to see how it unfolds.

　　Hisham Melhem, Steve Heydemann, and Ambassador Robert Ford, gentlemen, thank you.

1 morbid   

adj.病的；致病的；病态的；可怕的

参考例句：

• Some people have a morbid fascination with crime.一些人对犯罪有一种病态的痴迷。
• It's morbid to dwell on cemeteries and such like.不厌其烦地谈论墓地以及诸如此类的事是一种病态。

2 killing   

n.巨额利润；突然赚大钱，发大财

参考例句：

• Investors are set to make a killing from the sell-off.投资者准备清仓以便大赚一笔。
• Last week my brother made a killing on Wall Street.上个周我兄弟在华尔街赚了一大笔。

3 eyebrows   

眉毛( eyebrow的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Eyebrows stop sweat from coming down into the eyes. 眉毛挡住汗水使其不能流进眼睛。
• His eyebrows project noticeably. 他的眉毛特别突出。

4 legitimacy   

n.合法，正当

参考例句：

• The newspaper was directly challenging the government's legitimacy.报纸直接质疑政府的合法性。
• Managing from the top down,we operate with full legitimacy.我们进行由上而下的管理有充分的合法性。

5 oust   

vt.剥夺，取代，驱逐

参考例句：

• The committee wanted to oust him from the union.委员会想把他从工会中驱逐出去。
• The leaders have been ousted from power by nationalists.这些领导人被民族主义者赶下了台。

6 brutal   

adj.残忍的，野蛮的，不讲理的

参考例句：

• She has to face the brutal reality.她不得不去面对冷酷的现实。
• They're brutal people behind their civilised veneer.他们表面上温文有礼，骨子里却是野蛮残忍。

7 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

8 bolstered   

v.支持( bolster的过去式和过去分词 )；支撑；给予必要的支持；援助

参考例句：

• He bolstered his plea with new evidence. 他举出新的证据来支持他的抗辩。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The data must be bolstered by inferences and indirect estimates of varying degrees of reliability. 这些资料必须借助于推理及可靠程度不同的间接估计。 来自辞典例句

9 expertise   

n.专门知识(或技能等)，专长

参考例句：

• We were amazed at his expertise on the ski slopes.他斜坡滑雪的技能使我们赞叹不已。
• You really have the technical expertise in a new breakthrough.让你真正在专业技术上有一个全新的突破。

10 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

11 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

12 Ford   

n.浅滩，水浅可涉处；v.涉水，涉过

参考例句：

• They were guarding the bridge,so we forded the river.他们驻守在那座桥上，所以我们只能涉水过河。
• If you decide to ford a stream,be extremely careful.如果已决定要涉过小溪，必须极度小心。

13 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

14 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

15 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

16 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

17 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

18 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

19 eroding   

侵蚀，腐蚀( erode的现在分词 )； 逐渐毁坏，削弱，损害

参考例句：

• The coast is slowly eroding. 海岸正慢慢地被侵蚀。
• Another new development is eroding the age-old stereotype of the male warrior. 另一个新现象是，久已形成的男人皆武士的形象正逐渐消失。

20 proxy   

n.代理权，代表权；（对代理人的）委托书；代理人

参考例句：

• You may appoint a proxy to vote for you.你可以委托他人代你投票。
• We enclose a form of proxy for use at the Annual General Meeting.我们附上委任年度大会代表的表格。

21 fatigue   

n.疲劳，劳累

参考例句：

• The old lady can't bear the fatigue of a long journey.这位老妇人不能忍受长途旅行的疲劳。
• I have got over my weakness and fatigue.我已从虚弱和疲劳中恢复过来了。

22 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

23 brutality   

n.野蛮的行为，残忍，野蛮

参考例句：

• The brutality of the crime has appalled the public. 罪行之残暴使公众大为震惊。
• a general who was infamous for his brutality 因残忍而恶名昭彰的将军

24 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

25 tangible   

adj.有形的，可触摸的，确凿的，实际的

参考例句：

• The policy has not yet brought any tangible benefits.这项政策还没有带来任何实质性的好处。
• There is no tangible proof.没有确凿的证据。

26 junta   

n.团体；政务审议会

参考例句：

• The junta reacted violently to the perceived threat to its authority.军政府感到自身权力受威胁而进行了激烈反击。
• A military junta took control of the country.一个军政权控制了国家。

27 alienated   

adj.感到孤独的，不合群的v.使疏远( alienate的过去式和过去分词 )；使不友好；转让；让渡（财产等）

参考例句：

• His comments have alienated a lot of young voters. 他的言论使许多年轻选民离他而去。
• The Prime Minister's policy alienated many of her followers. 首相的政策使很多拥护她的人疏远了她。 来自《简明英汉词典》

28 persecution   

n. 迫害,烦扰

参考例句：

• He had fled from France at the time of the persecution. 他在大迫害时期逃离了法国。
• Their persecution only serves to arouse the opposition of the people. 他们的迫害只激起人民对他们的反抗。