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Old Records Help Resurrect Historic Quake

旧文件再现史上大地震

Ninety-nine years ago, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake hit Puerto Rico. It also caused a tsunami¹ that swept through coastal² towns. All told, the shaking and flooding killed more than 100 people and damaged many buildings and roads. Now, scientists are getting a clearer picture of the tragic³ event thanks to an unexpected source: century-old documents unearthed⁴ in an archive in the capital city of San Juan.

99年前，波多黎各发生了7.3级地震。那次地震还引发了席卷沿海城镇的海啸。地震和洪水造成100多人死亡，许多建筑物和道路被毁。现在，科学家们对这一悲剧事件有了更清晰的了解，而这要归功于一个意想不到的来源：在首都圣胡安市的一个档案馆中发掘的保存了一个世纪的文件。

The documents were discovered by Bill McCann, a seismologist and former professor at the University of Puerto Rico. McCann stumbled upon boxes of repair petitions filed by residents of what was then a newly acquired U.S. territory, asking for aid after the disaster. He later mentioned them to Roland LaForge, another semi-retired seismologist, who told me why he wanted to rescue the records:

地震学家、前波多黎各大学教授比尔·麦肯发现了这些文件。麦肯偶然发现了当时美国新获取的领土的居民，在灾难发生后为请求援助而提交的一些修复请愿书。后来，他向另一位半退休状态的地震学家罗兰·拉斯福提到了它们，拉斯福告诉我，为什么他想要研究这些记录:

\“They’re just sitting there getting moldy⁵, and nobody’s ever looked at them. There might be some really useful information in there.”

“它们就被扔在那里发霉，从来没有人看过。而那里面可能会有一些非常有用的信息。”

So the two researchers analyzed⁶ more than 6000 documents. Which turned out to be a gold mine of information about the disaster and the damage it caused, on a house-by-house basis.

因此，两位研究人员分析了6000多份文件。事实证明，这是一个关于那场灾难和它所造成的损失的金矿，而且它还是建立在当地每户居民提供的数据的基础上。

 “They’re very sad and pointed⁷ at times, because people lost family members. Some people drowned and they never found their bodies. You got a real feel for the suffering that these people went through.”

“因为失去家人他们非常伤心，有些人还在文件中提到过。有些人溺亡了，连尸体都找不到。你对这些人所经历的苦难有了一种真切的感受。”

In a newly published study based on the records, the researchers focused on the town of Aguadilla, which sat closest to the epicenter. They found that the worst earthquake damage happened where the ground was sandy or swampy⁸, and confirmed earlier estimates that the tsunami rose between three and four meters high, inundating⁹ low-lying neighborhoods. LaForge says these data will help local authorities plan for future quakes.

在基于这些记录而新发表的一项研究中，研究人员将注意力集中在距离震中最近的阿瓜迪亚镇。他们发现，沙质或沼泽地在地震中被破坏得最严重，并且证实了此前的判断——海啸上升到3至4米高，淹没了地势低洼的居民区。拉斯福说这些数据将会帮助地方当局做好将来地震的预防工作。

 “It’s very important to look at these historic earthquakes and learn as much as you can from them because our knowledge and our history of earthquakes is very, very short.”

“研究这些历史上的地震，并尽可能地去学习和认识这些地震对我们来说是非常重要的，因为我们的地震知识和地震史太短太短了。”

The work is published in the journal Seismological Research Letters.

这项研究发表在《地震学研究快报》上。

The 1918 event was the most recent major earthquake to hit Puerto Rico, and the only one for which any written records exist. But LaForge says it’s only a matter of time before the island experiences another. It sits on its own tiny plate, squeezed between the North American and Caribbean plates and surrounded on all sides by faults. LaForge has estimated that it could be a few thousand years before the fault that caused the 1918 disaster breaks again. But that’s what he calls a WAG—“you know, a wild-ass guess.” Besides, there are many other faults just like it that could go.

1918年的地震是波多黎各最近遭遇的一次大地震，也是唯一一个留下书面记录的地震。但拉斯福表示，该岛再次发生这样的地震只是时间问题。它坐落在自己的小板块上，夹在北美和加勒比海板块之间，四周被断层包围。拉斯福估计，导致1918年灾难发生的断层可能过几千年还会发生断裂。但那只是他所说的——“嗯，一个‘疯狂的猜测’（WAG）”。而且，还有许多其他类似的断层可能也会引发同样的效果。

“If a repeat of that type of earthquake happened next week, nobody would be surprised.”

“即使下周就再发生一次类似的地震，那也没有人会感到惊讶。”