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　　国际货币基金组织预计，由于金融危机扩展到全球，世界经济的增长将会显著下降。不过，该组织并不预期类似20世纪30年代全球性的经济大萧条会再现。

　　IMF chief economist³ Olivier Blanchard says the financial crisis will significantly slow global growth during the next year. Speaking at the start of the Washington annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank, Blanchard said the crisis is having its severest impact in advanced economies.

　　国际货币基金组织的首席经济学家布兰查德说，金融危机将严重减缓全球经济明年的增长。在国际货币基金组织和世界银行的华盛顿年会即将开始之际发表讲话时，布兰查德说，这次危机对发达经济体的影响最为严重。

　　"We predict that growth in advanced countries will be close to zero, or even negative, until at least the middle of 2009, with a slow recovery until the rest of the year," he said.

　　他说：“我们预计，发达国家的增长至少到2009年年中都将会接近于零，甚至是负增长。在2009年余下的时间里会出现缓慢的复苏。”

　　Blanchard, a French economist and professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says world growth has been sustained by robust⁴ growth in China and India. But, he says emerging markets will soon feel the effects of the financial crisis, as well.

　　来自法国的经济学家并在麻省理工学院担任教授的布兰查德说，中国和印度强劲的增长维持了世界经济的增长，但是他说，新兴市场很快也会感到这次金融危机带来的影响。

　　"All, or nearly all [emerging economies], will suffer from lower exports to advanced economies, and this will slow down their growth," he said. "Most will suffer from more expensive foreign credit. We are already seeing this happen."

　　他说：“所有或是几乎所有的新兴经济体都将因为对发达经济体的出口减少而受到损害，而这将会减缓它们本身的经济增长。大多数新兴经济体会受到更高的外国信贷成本的影响。我们已经看到这种情况的发生。”

　　In preparing its forecast, the International Monetary Fund assumed coordinated⁵ action by the Americans, Europeans and Japanese to stimulate⁶ growth and avoid a global downturn. The Fund says, after safeguarding financial institutions, governments should use fiscal⁷ policy to put more money into the hands of consumers.

　　在准备它的增长预测的时候，国际货币基金组织假定美国、欧洲和日本会采取协调一致的行动来刺激增长以及避免一个全球性的经济下滑。该组织说，在金融机构的安全得到保障之后，各国政府应该使用财政政策来把更多的钱放到消费者的手中。

　　IMF economists⁸ applaud Wednesday's action by major central banks acting⁹ in concert to cut interest rates, a move intended to boost consumer demand by making the cost of credit cheaper. This followed a series of measures taken in recent days to ease the credit crunch¹⁰, but stock markets have continued to fall amid concerns about global recession.

　　国际货币基金组织的经济学家对几大中央银行星期三一致采取行动削减利率的举动表示赞赏。这一举措是为了通过降低信贷成本而促进消费需求。这是在最近几天采取一系列措施来缓解信贷紧缩之后采取的又一举动。

　　Blanchard says the financial shock that first shook banking¹¹ institutions has spread to businesses and consumers.

　　布兰查德说，最先震撼银行业的金融震荡已经扩展到商业和消费者身上。

　　"Now, consumers and firms have weathered the recent oil and commodity price increases surprisingly well," said Blanchard. "Consumption and investment demand remain quite strong. But, what we see now is that demand is falling very sharply."

　　他说：“现在消费者和公司已经惊人地安然渡过了最近的石油和消费品价格上涨带来的冲击。消费和投资需求仍然相当强劲。但是，我们现在却看到，这种需求正在急剧减少。”

　　Blanchard and his IMF colleagues say there is no chance of a repeat of the global depression of the 1930s, because the lessons of that painful decade have been learned. Foremost among them is that consumer demand must be maintained, so that economic activity does not spiral downward amid corporate¹² failures and steeply rising unemployment.

　　布兰查德和他在国际货币基金组织的同事说，20世纪30年代的全球性经济大萧条的情况不会再次发生，这是因为我们吸取了那痛苦的10年所带来的经验教训。其中最重要的就是必须维持消费者需求，这样经济活动不会在公司倒闭以及急剧上升的失业风潮中出现螺旋式的快速下滑。

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