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伊朗大选-“超强硬派与强硬派”之争

Iranians go to the polls Friday for the first round of a presidential election that analysts² say pits hardliners against only slightly less hardline candidates. The experts believe that as a result, the outcome will make at most a difference in the tone of Iran’s policies, but not the substance.

伊朗人星期五将参加总统选举第一轮投票。这场选举被分析人士称为“超强硬派与强硬派”之争。专家指出，选举结果最多只会使伊朗的语调有所不同，而不会改变其政策的实质内容。

Iran’s presidential candidates have appeared in several debates. Controls on who can run have severely³ limited the scope of opinions on key issues, however, such as Iran’s nuclear program and its negotiations⁴ with the West.

伊朗总统候选人进行了多轮辩论。但是，对候选人资格的控制大大限制了在关键问题上观点的多样性，例如伊朗核问题以及与西方国家的谈判。

Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili advocates continuing the ‘no compromise’ policy. Hassan Rowhani, a former negotiator, might try to take a slightly softer approach.

伊朗首席核谈判代表贾利利主张继续实行“不妥协”政策，而前谈判代表鲁哈尼则可能试图采取稍微温和一点的方式。

But neither candidate would really make much difference on the nuclear issue, said Mark Fitzpatrick at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies.

伦敦国际战略研究所的菲茨帕特里克分析说，两位候选人都不可能在核问题上有多少改变。

“I think it really depends on what the views of the Supreme⁵ Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are. If he wants to make a breakthrough, then it almost doesn’t matter who the president is. But I don’t really expect much in the way of a breakthrough,” said Fitzpatrick.

“我认为这取决于最高领袖哈梅内伊的立场。如果他有突破，那么由谁来做总统无关紧要。但是我对出现突破不抱什么希望。”

Ayatollah Khamenei said he does not endorse⁶ any candidate. Those he might have opposed were barred from running, though, including all reformists and all women. That means Iranians won’t have a real choice in this election, according to the United Nations Special Rapporteur for Iran Human Rights, Ahmed Shaheed.

哈梅内伊表示，他不会为任何一位候选人背书。但是那些他可能反对的人都被禁止参选，其中包括所有的改革派和妇女。联合国伊朗人权问题特别报告员阿迈德?沙希德认为，这意味着伊朗人在这次选举中并没有真正的选择。

“The basic conditions for free and fair elections are not existent in Iran, and that is a serious concern. Under international law you cannot disqualify a candidate for elections unless you used criteria⁷ that were reasonable, objective and transparent,” said Shaheed.

他说：“伊朗不存在自由与公正选举的基本条件，这是一个严重问题。根据国际法，除非你有合理的、客观的和透明的标准，否则你不能取消一名参选人的资格。”

Among those disqualified was the relatively⁸ liberal former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

被取消资格的人当中包括持相对自由派立场的伊朗前总统拉夫桑贾尼。

Experts say a key concern of ordinary Iranians is the economy, which has been devastated⁹ by international sanctions designed to get flexibility¹⁰ in the nuclear negotiations. But economist¹¹ and oil market analyst¹ Leo Drollas said some key segments of Iranian society may not be overly concerned.

专家指出，普通伊朗人最担心的是经济，国际社会为迫使伊朗在核谈判中采取灵活态度而实施的制裁重创了伊朗经济。但经济学家利奥?德罗拉斯指出，伊朗社会中其他一些关键因素也不应被忽视。

“There are certain segments, of course, of the Iranian society, mainly associated with the Ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guards, and certain favored merchants, bazaaris, etcetera, who have done very well out of this situation. But the great majority of people are suffering, indeed, and nothing is likely to change,” said Drollas.

他说：“伊朗社会中有一部分人，主要是与阿亚图拉和革命卫队有关联的人，和某些生意人、商人，他们在当前形势下都春风得意，但绝大部分人的日子不好过。不会有什么变化。”

There had been hope that Iran’s election would lead to an easing of tensions and sanctions. Some analysts say the sanctions have hardened Iran's position, however, and they warn that continuing deadlock¹² on the nuclear issue, as Iran builds its capabilities¹³, could lead to a military confrontation¹⁴.

曾有人希望伊朗选举能够导致紧张气氛缓和，国际社会放松制裁措施。但一些分析人士指出，制裁使伊朗的立场更加强硬。他们警告说，随着伊朗增强其核能力，在核问题上持续的僵局会引发一场军事对峙。