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奥巴马提议美俄裁减核武库

U.S. President Barack Obama has proposed deep cuts in the American and Russian nuclear arsenals¹, a move analysts² say could make the world a little safer and save the countries a lot of money. But the experts say the biggest benefit might be an improvement in U.S.-Russian relations.

美国总统奥巴马提议，美国和俄罗斯大幅度裁减核武库。分析人士说，这个行动可以让世界更加安全，同时为两国节省一大笔开支。不过分析人士说，最大的好处是改善美国和俄罗斯的关系。

President Obama chose an iconic Cold War location -- the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin -- to make his new arms control proposal, offering to reduce U.S. nuclear warheads by one third. “I intend to seek negotiated cuts with Russia to move beyond Cold War nuclear postures,” he said.

奥巴马总统选择在象征冷战的柏林勃兰登堡门宣布他的武器控制提案，他提出美国将削减三分之一的核弹头。奥巴马总统说：“我愿意和俄罗斯通过谈判裁减核武库，摆脱冷战核对抗状态。”

The crowd in Berlin was enthusiastic. But actually negotiating cuts, and getting any agreement ratified³ by the U.S. Senate, will be difficult.

柏林的人群欢欣鼓舞，可是要实际谈判，达成一个能让美国参议院批准的协议，将会很困难。

Still, nuclear expert Heather Williams, of London’s Chatham House research institute, said talks will have broader value. “The number itself of reductions and number of weapons being drawn⁴ down, it is important, but it is not the most important part of arms control. It is the act of talking to each other, and it gives the U.S. and Russia this opportunity to engage and to try to improve relations,” she said.

不过，伦敦查塔姆研究所的核专家希瑟?威廉姆斯说，谈判会有广泛意义。她说：“裁减武器的数量本身固然很重要，不过这不是武器控制最重要的部分，最重要的是美国和俄罗斯相互对话，相互接触，改善关系。”

Williams said U.S.-Russia talks could also put nuclear arms reductions on the agenda for other nuclear powers, like India.

威廉姆斯说，美俄对话还可以让其他核大国把裁减核武器提到日程上来，比如印度。

Nine countries have nuclear weapons, and more are trying to join the group. Russia wants any talks to at least include China.

全世界有9个国家拥有核武器，还有更多的国家在研制核武器。俄罗斯希望任何谈判至少有中国参加。

But the United States and Russia have about 90 percent of the world’s nuclear bombs, many of them controlled at underground facilities like this one, ready to launch on a few minutes’ notice.

可是美国和俄罗斯拥有全世界大约百分之90的核武器，很多是在地下操控，就像这个设施，在几分钟内就可以发射。

So, Cold War-style U.S.-Russian negotiations⁵ are still needed, according to British government adviser⁶ Malcolm Chalmers at the Royal United Services Institute. “I do not think it is going to happen in the next few months. I do not think it suits Putin in terms of his domestic position," he stated. "But I think, at some time in the next five or 10 years, I think it is a card which will be in the interest of both the U.S. and Russia to play.”

英国政府顾问皇家联合服务研究所的马尔科姆?查默斯说，美俄仍然需要进行这种冷战式的谈判。他说：“我不认为几个月后就能展开谈判，我不认为这符合普京在国内的处境。不过我想，今后5到10年里，这个举动会有利于美国和俄罗斯。”

Although the United States and Russia deploy⁷ thousands of nuclear weapons on land, in the air and at sea, concern about a U.S.-Russian nuclear exchange is far diminished from the Cold War years.

虽然美国和俄罗斯在地面、空中和海上部署了数以千计的核武器，可是各界对双方动用核武器的担忧却远远低于冷战时期。

But Heather Williams said there is another motivation for reducing arsenals -- they are expensive. “Russia, as everyone knows, is under enormous financial pressure. And they just have not invested in their nuclear infrastructure⁸. Neither has the U.S. to some extent. But Russia can not afford these weapons, so they are more keen to get rid of them than the U.S,” she said.

不过，威廉姆斯说，裁减核武库还有另一个动机，那就是核武库太昂贵。她说：“大家知道，俄罗斯面对巨大的财政压力，他们没有钱投资建设核设施，从某种程度上来说，美国也没有，不过俄罗斯负担不起这些武器，所以他们比美国更急于处理掉它们。”

So even at a time of reduced nuclear tensions, there is motivation to lower the threat even more, and perhaps to open a channel for U.S.-Russian dialogue on other issues at the same time.

即便在核紧张缓和时期，双方也有理由进一步减少威胁，也许核谈判可以让美国和俄罗斯在其他问题上的展开对话。