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世行预测全球经济温和增长

The global recovery is gaining momentum¹ according to new projections² by the World Bank.  But unlike previous years, the World Bank says growth in 2014 is likely to be driven in large part by high income countries.

根据世界银行的最新预测，全球经济复苏蓄势待发。但与前些年不同的是，世行认为，2014年的增长将主要由高收入国家驱动。

Five years after the financial crisis - the World Bank says the global economy has reached a turning point - this time, led by advanced economies.  That’s especially true of the United States, says Andrew Burns, lead author of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects³.

世界银行说，金融危机过去5年之后，全球经济已经到达一个拐点，这次由发达经济体领头。世界银行《全球经济展望》的主要作者安德鲁·伯恩斯说，美国的作用尤其重要。

“For the first time in five years, high income countries are accelerating. They’re going to be contributing to global growth in a way that they haven’t for some time.  That’s going to be good for developing countries,” says Burns.

“高收入国家经济增长加速，这是5年来的第一次。这些国家将以相当长一段时间以来不曾有过的方式为全球经济增长做出贡献。这对发展中国家有好处。”

The World Bank projects the U.S. economy will expand from 1.8 percent last year to about 2.8 percent in 2014.  Bank chief economist⁴ Kaushik Basu expects a similar story in Europe which emerged from recession last year.

世界银行预测说，2014年美国经济增长率将从去年的百分之1.8上升到大约百分之2.8。世行首席经济学家考希克·巴苏预计，去年从不景气中恢复过来的欧洲的情况也大抵如此。

“The latest estimates show Europe grew by minus 0.4 percent, but we expect this to turn positive, gently positive - 1.1 is not huge growth but given Europe’s difficulties over the last six years, this is indeed good news,” says Basu.

他说：“最新估计显示欧洲经济是百分之0.4的负增长，但我们预计今年会看到百分之1.1的增长，这个幅度不大，但考虑到欧洲过去6年经历的各种困难，这的确是个好消息。”

Although political instability continues to pose downside risks for parts of North Africa and the Middle East, the biggest question mark remains⁵ the impact of the U.S. central bank’s decision to scale back monetary⁶ stimulus⁷.

尽管政治动荡继续给北非和中东地区的经济带来下行压力，但目前最大的问号仍然是美国联邦储备委员决定缩减货币刺激措施会带来什么影响。

But Basu says the effects are likely to be mild because many countries started feeling the impact of higher interest rates after the Fed signaled its intentions by the middle of 2013.

巴苏认为，影响可能比较温和，因为自美联储2013年年中暗示有这种打算以来，很多国家经济已经开始感觉到提高利率所产生的影响。

“We saw that in South Africa, in Indonesia, in India, where the exchange rate was crashing around.  So I feel actually, at one level, a lot of the adjustment has already taken place.  So when the tapering⁸ actually began as it now has from 85 billion dollars a month to 75 - it’s actually not having that much of an effect because part of the effect has already taken place,” says Basu.

“我们看到，在南非、印尼、印度等国家，汇率大跌。所以，我认为，从某种意义上来说，这些国家已经开始进行调整了。美联储把每月购买850亿美元债券减至现在的750亿，实际上开始减少量化宽松规模。部分影响已经显现，所以不会再有太大的影响了。”

Growth in China, still the world’s fastest growing economy, is expected to remain steady at 7.7 percent.

中国经济增速仍领先世界，预计2014年将保持百分之7.7的稳步增长。

But Basu says he is most excited about prospects for the sub-Saharan regions of Africa - projected to grow 5.3 percent in 2014.

但是巴苏说，最让他感到兴奋的是，2014年，预计撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲地区经济增长率将达到百分之5.3。