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油价下跌 德克萨斯州喜忧参半

Oil rig workers, known as roughnecks, face unemployment as oil prices fall, but the impact is greater in regions like Alaska and North Dakota, where production costs are higher than they are in the Eagle Ford¹ shale² area of south-central Texas.

在油价下跌之际，人称“粗脖子”（roughneck）的石油钻井工人面临着失业。不过，受冲击更大的是阿拉斯加和北达科他等地区，那里的生产成本要高于德克萨斯中南部的鹰滩（Eagle Ford）页岩区。

Business has even picked up at Rooster Safety in Pleasanton, Texas, where roughnecks buy gloves, helmets and protective gear.

在德州普莱森顿的雄鸡安全（Rooster Safety）器材店，生意甚至更好了。“粗脖子”们在店里购买手套、头盔和防护用具。

Store owner James Strange said he'd been getting orders from company purchasing agents who were content with paying more to established suppliers when oil prices were high.

店主詹姆斯?斯特伦奇（James Strange）说，他的订单如今来自公司采购代理，油价高的时候，这些人不介意多花点钱从原有的供应商订货。

“Now that oil prices are dropping and people want to watch their budgets, they are willing to take an extra 30 minutes to create an account with us so that they can start purchasing and save some money,” he said.

他说：“如今，油价下跌，人们要注意预算了，他们现在愿意多花半个小时，到我们这里开设账户，好开始从我们这里购货，省点钱。”

By keeping costs low, some projects in south-central Texas can remain profitable as long as the price of oil stays above $40 a barrel.

通过维持低成本，此间的某些项目仍可维持盈利，但条件是油价保持在每桶40美元以上。

Economist³ Adam Perdue at the University of Houston's Institute for Regional Forecasting, who studies the impact of the slowdown on Texas, said that “exploration and production budgets are being cut anywhere from 10 to 50 percent, with most of them being about 30 percent.”

休斯顿大学地区预测研究所的经济学者亚当?普杜（Adam Perdue）研究产业放缓对德州的影响。他说：“勘探和生产预算被削减，幅度从10%到50%不等，多数在30%左右。”

He said Houston's economy, which experienced 5 percent growth in recent years, would be affected⁴ by the lower spending.

他说，投入的减少将影响到休斯顿的经济增长。近年来，休斯顿保持着5%的增长率。

“We are predicting there will be 20,000 fewer jobs than there would have been otherwise," Perdue said. "So, we are still predicting growth in the Houston area. It is just going to slow down to a more reasonable rate of just under 2 percent.”

普杜说： “我们预计，就业机会将比原本应有的减少两万个。所以，我们仍然预计休斯顿地区会保持增长，只是增速放缓，降到更为合理的将近2%。”

The slowdown will also affect companies that make pipes and fittings for oil exploration and production, as well as trucking companies that supply sand and chemicals for hydraulic⁵ fracturing and many other small businesses that serve the energy industry.

增速减缓还将影响制造石油钻探和生产所需要的管道及配件的公司、为水力压裂公司运送沙子和化学品的卡车运输公司以及其它许多为能源业提供服务的小公司。

But low oil prices are a stimulus⁶ to chemical producers that use hydrocarbons⁷ to make everything from solvents⁸ to fertilizer and plastics. Perdue said new chemical plant construction near Houston would keep many skilled workers employed.

不过，低油价却是化学品生产商的兴奋剂。这些生产商使用碳氢化合物制造从溶剂、化肥到塑料等各种产品。亚当?普杜说，休斯顿附近正在兴建的新化工厂将保住很多技术工人的饭碗。

“A lot of these roughnecks that are going to lose their jobs out there in the field are going to be able to come home and get a welding job or a construction job,” he said.

经济学者普杜说：“很多将失去油田工作的‘粗脖子’将会回家找到焊接或建筑之类的工作。”

Perdue said oil company analysts⁹ see prices rising again in six months or so as the market glut¹⁰ from expanded production decreases.

普杜说，石油公司分析师预计，随着因扩大生产而造成的供应过剩走向缓解，油价在六个月左右会恢复涨势。

But, he said, if those assumptions are wrong and oil prices continue to fall, the impact on Houston and Texas in general will be much worse.

不过，他说，如果这些假设有误，油价持续下跌，那么，休斯顿乃至整个德州的情况将会糟糕得多。