英国卫报:你还在相信统计数据吗?(1)

How statistics lost their power – and why we should fear what comes next

统计数据是如何失去其力量的？为什么我们要担心接下来会发生什么

The ability of statistics to accurately¹ represent the world is declining. In its wake, a new age of big data controlled by private companies is taking over – and putting democracy in peril²

统计准确反映世界的能力正在下降。随之而来的是，一个由私企控制的大数据新时代正在到来，这让民主处于危险之中

by William Davies

作者：威廉姆·戴维斯

In theory, statistics should help settle arguments. They ought to provide stable reference points that everyone – no matter what their politics – can agree on. Yet in recent years, divergent levels of trust in statistics has become one of the key schisms³ that have opened up in western liberal democracies. Shortly before the November presidential election, a study in the US discovered that 68% of Trump⁴ supporters distrusted the economic data published by the federal government. In the UK, a research project by Cambridge University and YouGov looking at conspiracy⁵ theories discovered that 55% of the population believes that the government "is hiding the truth about the number of immigrants living here".

理论上，统计数据应该有助于解决争论。它们应该提供稳定的参考点，让所有人——无论他们的政治立场是什么——都能达成一致。然而，近年来，对统计数据的不同信任程度已成为西方自由民主国家出现的一个关键分裂。在11月总统大选前不久，美国的一项研究发现，68%的特朗普支持者不信任联邦政府公布的经济数据。在英国，剑桥大学和舆观调查网调查阴谋论的一项研究项目发现，55%的人认为政府“隐瞒了居住在这里的移民数量的真相”。

Rather than diffusing⁶ controversy⁷ and polarisation, it seems as if statistics are actually stoking them. Antipathy⁸ to statistics has become one of the hallmarks of the populist right, with statisticians and economists⁹ chief among the various "experts" that were ostensibly rejected by voters in 2016. Not only are statistics viewed by many as untrustworthy, there appears to be something almost insulting or arrogant¹⁰ about them. Reducing social and economic issues to numerical aggregates¹¹ and averages seems to violate some people's sense of political decency¹².

统计数据似乎并没有分散争议和两极分化，反而加剧了它们。厌恶统计已成为民粹主义右翼的标志之一，在2016年被选民表面拒绝的各类“专家”当中，统计学家和经济学家位居首位。许多人不仅认为统计数据不值得信任，而且认为这些数据似乎有些无礼或傲慢。将社会和经济问题简化为数字的总和和平均数似乎违反了一些人的政治正义感。

1 accurately   

adv.准确地，精确地

参考例句：

• It is hard to hit the ball accurately.准确地击中球很难。
• Now scientists can forecast the weather accurately.现在科学家们能准确地预报天气。

2 peril   

n.(严重的)危险；危险的事物

参考例句：

• The refugees were in peril of death from hunger.难民有饿死的危险。
• The embankment is in great peril.河堤岌岌可危。

3 schisms   

n.教会分立，分裂( schism的名词复数 )

参考例句：

4 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

5 conspiracy   

n.阴谋，密谋，共谋

参考例句：

• The men were found guilty of conspiracy to murder.这些人被裁决犯有阴谋杀人罪。
• He claimed that it was all a conspiracy against him.他声称这一切都是一场针对他的阴谋。

6 diffusing   

（使光）模糊，漫射，漫散( diffuse的现在分词 )； （使）扩散； （使）弥漫； （使）传播

参考例句：

• Compounding this confusion is a diffusing definition of journalist. 新闻和娱乐的掺和扩散了“记者”定义。
• Diffusing phenomena also so, after mix cannot spontaneous separating. 扩散现象也如此，混合之后不能自发的分开。

7 controversy   

n.争论，辩论，争吵

参考例句：

• That is a fact beyond controversy.那是一个无可争论的事实。
• We ran the risk of becoming the butt of every controversy.我们要冒使自己在所有的纷争中都成为众矢之的的风险。

8 antipathy   

n.憎恶；反感，引起反感的人或事物

参考例句：

• I feel an antipathy against their behaviour.我对他们的行为很反感。
• Some people have an antipathy to cats.有的人讨厌猫。

9 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 arrogant   

adj.傲慢的，自大的

参考例句：

• You've got to get rid of your arrogant ways.你这骄傲劲儿得好好改改。
• People are waking up that he is arrogant.人们开始认识到他很傲慢。

11 aggregates   

数( aggregate的名词复数 )； 总计； 骨料； 集料（可成混凝土或修路等用的）

参考例句：

• Snowflakes are loose aggregates of ice crystals. 雪花是冰晶的松散凝结。
• Our airplanes based in Europe should be included in the aggregates. 我们驻欧飞机应包括在总数内。

12 decency   

n.体面，得体，合宜，正派，庄重

参考例句：

• His sense of decency and fair play made him refuse the offer.他的正直感和公平竞争意识使他拒绝了这一提议。
• Your behaviour is an affront to public decency.你的行为有伤风化。