英国卫报:你还在相信统计数据吗?(3)

The declining authority of statistics – and the experts who analyse them – is at the heart of the crisis that has become known as "post-truth" politics. And in this uncertain new world, attitudes towards quantitative¹ expertise² have become increasingly divided. From one perspective, grounding politics in statistics is elitist, undemocratic and oblivious³ to people's emotional investments in their community and nation. It is just one more way that privileged people in London, Washington DC or Brussels seek to impose their worldview on everybody else. From the opposite perspective, statistics are quite the opposite of elitist. They enable journalists, citizens and politicians to discuss society as a whole, not on the basis of anecdote⁴, sentiment or prejudice, but in ways that can be validated⁵. The alternative to quantitative expertise is less likely to be democracy than an unleashing⁶ of tabloid⁷ editors and demagogues to provide their own "truth" of what is going on across society.

统计——以及分析统计数据的专家——的权威不断下降，是这场被称为“后真相”政治的危机的核心。在这个不确定的新世界里，人们对定量专业知识的态度越来越分化。从某种角度看，以统计为基础的政治是精英主义的，不民主的，无视人们对社区和国家的情感投资。这只是伦敦、华盛顿或布鲁塞尔的特权人士将他们的世界观强加给其他人的又一种方式。从相反的角度看，统计学与精英主义完全相反。它们使记者、公民和政治家能够从整体上讨论社会问题，不是基于奇闻轶事、情绪或偏见，而是以切实可行的方式。除了量化专业知识之外，民主更不可能是民主，而是释放小报编辑和煽动者，提供他们自己的“真相”来了解整个社会正在发生的事情。

Is there a way out of this polarisation? Must we simply choose between a politics of facts and one of emotions, or is there another way of looking at this situation? One way is to view statistics through the lens of their history. We need to try and see them for what they are: neither unquestionable truths nor elite⁸ conspiracies⁹, but rather as tools designed to simplify the job of government, for better or worse. Viewed historically, we can see what a crucial role statistics have played in our understanding of nation states and their progress. This raises the alarming question of how – if at all – we will continue to have common ideas of society and collective progress, should statistics fall by the wayside.

有办法摆脱这种两极分化吗？我们必须简单地在事实政治和情感政治之间做出选择，还是有别的方法来看待这种情况？一种方法是通过历史的镜头来看待统计数据。我们需要试着看清它们到底是什么：既不是不容置疑的事实，也不是精英的阴谋，而是旨在简化政府工作的工具，不管结果是好是坏。从历史上看，我们可以看到统计数据在我们理解民族国家及其发展过程中发挥了多么重要的作用。这就出现了一个令人震惊的问题：如果统计数据被抛在一边，我们如何(如果有的话)继续对社会和集体进步有共同的看法。

1 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

2 expertise   

n.专门知识(或技能等)，专长

参考例句：

• We were amazed at his expertise on the ski slopes.他斜坡滑雪的技能使我们赞叹不已。
• You really have the technical expertise in a new breakthrough.让你真正在专业技术上有一个全新的突破。

3 oblivious   

adj.易忘的，遗忘的，忘却的，健忘的

参考例句：

• Mother has become quite oblivious after the illness.这次病后，妈妈变得特别健忘。
• He was quite oblivious of the danger.他完全没有察觉到危险。

4 anecdote   

n.轶事，趣闻，短故事

参考例句：

• He departed from the text to tell an anecdote.他偏离课文讲起了一则轶事。
• It had never been more than a family anecdote.那不过是个家庭趣谈罢了。

5 validated   

v.证实( validate的过去式和过去分词 )；确证；使生效；使有法律效力

参考例句：

• Time validated our suspicion. 时间证实了我们的怀疑。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The decade of history since 1927 had richly validated their thesis. 1927年以来的十年的历史，充分证明了他们的论点。 来自辞典例句

6 unleashing   

v.把（感情、力量等）释放出来，发泄( unleash的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Company logos: making people's life better by unleashing Cummins power. 公司理念：以康明斯动力建设更美好的生活！ 来自互联网
• Sooner or later the dam will burst, unleashing catastrophic destruction. 否则堤坝将崩溃，酿成灾难。 来自互联网

7 tabloid   

adj.轰动性的，庸俗的；n.小报，文摘

参考例句：

• He launched into a verbal assault on tabloid journalism.他口头对小报新闻进行了抨击。
• He believes that the tabloid press has behaved disgracefully.他认为小报媒体的行为不太光彩。

8 elite   

n.精英阶层；实力集团；adj.杰出的，卓越的

参考例句：

• The power elite inside the government is controlling foreign policy.政府内部的一群握有实权的精英控制着对外政策。
• We have a political elite in this country.我们国家有一群政治精英。

9 conspiracies   

n.阴谋，密谋( conspiracy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He was still alive and hatching his conspiracies. 他还活着，策划着阴谋诡计。 来自辞典例句
• It appeared that they had engaged in fresh conspiracies from the very moment of their release. 看上去他们刚给释放，立刻开始新一轮的阴谋活动。 来自英汉文学