英国卫报:你还在相信统计数据吗?(4)

In the second half of the 17th century, in the aftermath of prolonged and bloody¹ conflicts, European rulers adopted an entirely² new perspective on the task of government, focused upon demographic trends – an approach made possible by the birth of modern statistics. Since ancient times, censuses³ had been used to track population size, but these were costly⁴ and laborious⁵ to carry out and focused on citizens who were considered politically important (property-owning men), rather than society as a whole. Statistics offered something quite different, transforming the nature of politics in the process.

17世纪下半叶，在长期血腥冲突的余波中，欧洲统治者对政府的任务采取了一种全新的视角，关注人口趋势——现代统计学的诞生使这种方法成为可能。从古代起，人口普查就被用来追踪人口规模，但进行这些普查既昂贵又费力，而且只关注那些被认为具有政治重要性的公民(拥有财产的男人)，而不是整个社会。统计数据提供了一些完全不同的东西，在这个过程中改变了政治的性质。

Statistics were designed to give an understanding of a population in its entirety, rather than simply to pinpoint⁶ strategically valuable sources of power and wealth. In the early days, this didn't always involve producing numbers. In Germany, for example (from where we get the term Statistik) the challenge was to map disparate customs, institutions and laws across an empire of hundreds of micro-states. What characterised this knowledge as statistical⁷ was its holistic⁸ nature: it aimed to produce a picture of the nation as a whole. Statistics would do for populations what cartography did for territory.

统计数据的目的是让人们了解整个人口，而不是简单地指出具有战略价值的权力和财富来源。在早期，这并不总是涉及生产数字。以德国为例(“统计学家”一词由此而来)，在这个由数百个微小国家组成的帝国中，要绘制出不同的习俗、制度和法律的地图是一项挑战。这种统计知识的特点在于它的整体性：它旨在描绘整个国家的面貌。统计对人口的作用就像制图对领土的作用一样。

Equally significant was the inspiration of the natural sciences. Thanks to standardised measures and mathematical techniques, statistical knowledge could be presented as objective, in much the same way as astronomy. Pioneering English demographers⁹ such as William Petty and John Graunt adapted mathematical techniques to estimate population changes, for which they were hired by Oliver Cromwell and Charles II.

同样重要的是自然科学的灵感。由于标准化的措施和数学技术，统计知识可以被客观地呈现出来，就像天文学一样。英国的人口学家先驱，比如威廉·佩蒂和约翰·格罗尔特，曾被奥利弗·克伦威尔和查尔斯二世雇用，采用数学技术来估计人口变化。

1 bloody   

adj.非常的的；流血的；残忍的；adv.很；vt.血染

参考例句：

• He got a bloody nose in the fight.他在打斗中被打得鼻子流血。
• He is a bloody fool.他是一个十足的笨蛋。

2 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

3 censuses   

人口普查，统计( census的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Data derived from population censuses is useful for social researchers. 从人口普查中得到的数据对社会研究者们很有用处。
• UNFPA also helps countries compile reliable demographic data and carry out censuses. 人口基金还帮助各国汇编可靠的人口数据及开展人口普查。

4 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

5 laborious   

adj.吃力的，努力的，不流畅

参考例句：

• They had the laborious task of cutting down the huge tree.他们接受了伐大树的艰苦工作。
• Ants and bees are laborious insects.蚂蚁与蜜蜂是勤劳的昆虫。

6 pinpoint   

vt.准确地确定；用针标出…的精确位置

参考例句：

• It is difficult to pinpoint when water problems of the modern age began.很难准确地指出，现代用水的问题是什么时候出现的。
• I could pinpoint his precise location on a map.我能在地图上指明他的准确位置。

7 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

8 holistic   

adj.从整体着眼的，全面的

参考例句：

• There is a fundamental ambiguity in the use of word "whole" in recent holistic literature.在近代的整体主义著作中，“整体”这个词的用法极其含混。
• In so far as historicism is technological,its approach is not piecemeal,but "holistic".仅就历史决定论是一种技术而论，它的方法不是渐进的，而是“整体主义的”。

9 demographers   

n.人口统计学( demography的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Demographers, however, point out that the'single" trend will have a profound effect on American institutions. 不过，人口学家们指出，“单身”趋势将对美国的公共机构产生深远的影响。 来自时文部分
• Selectivity of human migration long been the focus of demographers and economists. 人口迁移的选择性一直以来都是人口学家和经济学家关注的焦点。 来自互联网