US Intelligence Estimate Warns About Iraq's Future

 

By Nick Simeone

A report prepared by the U.S. intelligence community offers a pessimistic outlook for Iraq, including the possibility that the country could drift toward civil war.
A U.S. official, who asked not to be identified, tells VOA the intelligence report warns the prospects¹ for stability in Iraq are not good, and that current trends point toward a continued deterioration² of the security situation there. By the end of 2005, the official says, the possibility of full-scale civil war involving Iraq's Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds cannot be ruled out.
The report was approved by the director of the Central Intelligence Agency and sent earlier this summer to President Bush. While it has not been made public, a story about it appeared in Thursday's New York Times.
White House Spokesman Scott McClellan says the intelligence assessment⁴ really just states the obvious, and he notes there have been many dire³ predictions about Iraq's future before. The report appears to differ substantially from the upbeat predictions President Bush and top members of his administration have been making about Iraq's future.
Appearing on the NBC television program, Meet the Press on Sunday, Secretary of State Colin Powell expressed confidence the insurgency⁵ in Sunni areas of Iraq would end in time for elections set for January. "Our military commanders, working with Iraqi military leaders and the Iraqi interim⁶ government, have plans for each one of those areas, to bring them back under government control in time for the election," he said.
However, concern that Iraq could grow increasingly unstable⁷ and violent appears to be growing in Congress, including among members of the president's own Republican Party.
Senator Chuck Hagel is upset that billions of dollars allocated⁸ for Iraqi reconstruction⁹ will have to be spent on security instead. "That does not add up in my opinion to a pretty picture, a picture that shows we are winning. But it does add up to this: acknowledgment that we are in deep trouble," he said.
And Democratic Senator Joseph Biden, a longtime critic of the White House on Iraq, echoed the pessimistic scenario¹⁰ outlined in the intelligence report. "Iraq remains¹¹ an active war zone, an increasingly active war zone, increasingly active war zone, not diminishing, an increasingly active war zone. The insurgency is growing, it is more lethal," he said.
Members of Congress are likely to ask Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi how he plans to deal with the insurgency when he visits Washington next week. In the meantime, U.S. military officials have warned, Iraq is likely to grow even more violent as the date for January's elections approaches.
At Pentagon, Nick Simeone, VOA News.
注释：
U.S. intelligence 美情报机构
pessimistic 悲观的
stability 稳定性
deterioration 变坏，恶化
Shiites 什叶派教徒
Sunnis (伊斯兰教的)逊尼派教徒
rule out 排除，消除
Central Intelligence Agency 美国中央情报局(=CIA)
dire 可怕的
upbeat 乐观的
NBC (National Broadcasting Company) <美>国家广播公司
Secretary of State 国务卿
insurgency 叛乱
interim government  过渡政府
allocate 分派, 分配
add up to 达到
echo 回声, 附和
scenario 情形
diminishing 逐渐缩小的
lethal 致命的

1 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

2 deterioration   

n.退化；恶化；变坏

参考例句：

• Mental and physical deterioration both occur naturally with age. 随着年龄的增长，心智和体力自然衰退。
• The car's bodywork was already showing signs of deterioration. 这辆车的车身已经显示出了劣化迹象。

3 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

4 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

5 insurgency   

n.起义；暴动；叛变

参考例句：

• And as in China, unrest and even insurgency are widespread. 而在中国，动乱甚至暴乱都普遍存在。 来自互联网
• Dr Zyphur is part an insurgency against this idea. 塞弗博士是这一观点逆流的一部分。 来自互联网

6 interim   

adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间

参考例句：

• The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
• It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。

7 unstable   

adj.不稳定的，易变的

参考例句：

• This bookcase is too unstable to hold so many books.这书橱很不结实，装不了这么多书。
• The patient's condition was unstable.那患者的病情不稳定。

8 allocated   

adj. 分配的 动词allocate的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• The Ford Foundation allocated millions of dollars for cancer research. 福特基金会拨款数百万美元用于癌症研究。
• More funds will now be allocated to charitable organizations. 现在会拨更多的资金给慈善组织。

9 reconstruction   

n.重建，再现，复原

参考例句：

• The country faces a huge task of national reconstruction following the war.战后，该国面临着重建家园的艰巨任务。
• In the period of reconstruction,technique decides everything.在重建时期，技术决定一切。

10 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

11 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。