2019年经济学人 苹果公司的忧患意识(2)

 

Mr Cook’s bet on China extended beyond its factories to its consumers. Sales to the region have risen from next-to-nothing in 2010 to $52bn last year, or almost a fifth of Apple’s revenues. Since Donald Trump¹’s election in 2016, “Tim Apple” (as America’s president once called him) has jetted to Washington and Beijing to try to ease rising trade tensions between the two superpowers. Horace Dediu, a technology analyst², says Mr Cook “knows how to navigate³ the political mind”.

库克对中国的押注已从工厂扩展到消费者。苹果在中国的销售额已从2010年的几乎为零增长至去年的520亿美元，几乎占苹果总收入的五分之一。自唐纳德?特朗普2016年当选美国总统以来，“蒂姆?苹果”(美国总统曾这样称呼他)往来华盛顿和北京，试图缓解这两个超级大国之间不断加剧的贸易紧张局势。科技分析师贺拉斯?德迪欧表示，库克“知道如何应对政治思维”。

Given his reputation as a logistical mastermind, it is worth asking why he has ignored the first rule of supply-chain management: the risk of keeping too many important eggs in one basket. In Mr Cook’s case, that basket is China. The trade bust-up is getting uglier. If it leads to an anti-American backlash in China, it could spell trouble for Apple—and for Mr Cook personally.

考虑到他作为物流策划者的声誉，有必要问问他为什么忽略了供应链管理的第一条规则：在一个篮子里放太多重要鸡蛋的风险。就库克而言，这个篮子就是中国。贸易争端愈演愈烈。中国一旦抵制美国产品，这将给苹果公司和库克先生个人带来麻烦。

Mr Cook’s lobbying has helped Apple avoid direct hits from Mr Trump’s tariffs⁴, already imposed on $250bn-worth of Chinese imports. But its shares have fallen by almost 12% in the past month. On June 1st, after The Economist⁵ went to press, China was expected to retaliate⁶ with tariffs on $60bn of American goods, including components⁷ for Apple devices. Mr Trump has threatened a levy⁸ of 25% on $300bn more of imports if trade talks do not produce a breakthrough. This would cover the iPhone, by far Apple’s biggest source of revenue. Morgan Stanley, a bank, estimates that it could add $160 to the cost of a $999 iPhone xs. Apple could absorb the cost or pass it on to buyers. Either way, profits would suffer.

库克的游说帮助苹果避免了来自特朗普关税的直接冲击。特朗普已对价值2500亿美元的中国进口产品征收关税。但其股价在过去一个月下跌了近12%。6月1日，在这期《经济学人》付印后，预计中国将对600亿美元的美国商品征收关税作为回击，其中包括苹果设备的零部件。特朗普威胁称，如果贸易谈判不能取得突破，美国将对3000亿美元的进口商品加征25%的关税。这包括iPhone，到目前为止，iPhone是苹果最大的收入来源。摩根斯坦利估计，iPhone xs将在999美元的价格基础上再加价160美元。苹果或自己承担成本，或把成本转嫁给消费者。无论哪种方式，利润都会受损。

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

3 navigate   

v.航行，飞行；导航，领航

参考例句：

• He was the first man to navigate the Atlantic by air.他是第一个飞越大西洋的人。
• Such boats can navigate on the Nile.这种船可以在尼罗河上航行。

4 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

5 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

6 retaliate   

v.报复，反击

参考例句：

• He sought every opportunity to retaliate against his enemy.他找机会向他的敌人反击。
• It is strictly forbidden to retaliate against the quality inspectors.严禁对质量检验人员进行打击报复。

7 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

8 levy   

n.征收税或其他款项，征收额

参考例句：

• They levy a tax on him.他们向他征税。
• A direct food levy was imposed by the local government.地方政府征收了食品税。