2021年经济学人 新兴市场投资者的葵花宝典(2)

The debt burden and maturity¹ profile only get you so far. There are three other influences that investors² might usefully bear in mind. The first is commodity prices. The collapse⁴ in crude prices last year left a few oil-producing countries short of hard-currency earnings⁵. It played a part in the troubles of Ecuador, one of six countries to default on its bonds last year. For a while it seemed likely that Angola, a highly indebted oil exporter, would follow suit. Support from China and the IMF saved it, along with a marked pickup⁶ in the oil price late last year. Rising metals prices are also helpful to many indebted countries. The copper⁷ price is important for Chile, Peru and Zambia; the price of gold to Ghana and South Africa.

债务负担和到期债务组合只能帮到你这么多。投资者可能还需记住另外三个影响因素。首先是商品价格。去年原油价格的暴跌使得一些产油国的硬通货收入不足。这是厄瓜多尔去年遇到麻烦的部分原因，厄瓜多尔是去年六个拖欠债券的国家之一。一段时间以来，负债累累的石油出口国安哥拉似乎也会步其后风。来自中国和国际货币基金组织(IMF)的支持，加上去年末油价的显著回升，拯救了它。金属价格上涨也有利于许多负债国家。铜价对智利、秘鲁和赞比亚都很重要，黄金价格对加纳和南非很重要。

The second factor is exposure to tourism. The hit to the industry from the pandemic played a part in the default of Belize and in stresses elsewhere, says Stuart Culverhouse of Tellimer, an emerging-market research firm. It might take years for tourism to recover fully³. The IMF recently sharply downgraded its forecasts for the Caribbean economies. Sri Lanka has been dogged by fears of default, in part because it has heavy debts, but also because of lost income from tourists. For Kenya, an energyimporter with a hefty debt burden, a hit to tourism and a higher oil price is an unfortunate combination.

第二个因素是旅游业。新兴市场研究公司Tellimer的斯图尔特·卡尔弗豪斯说，这一流行病对工业的打击在一定程度上造成了伯利兹的违约和其他地方的压力。旅游业可能需要数年时间才能完全恢复。国际货币基金组织最近大幅下调了对加勒比经济体的预测。斯里兰卡一直被债务违约的担忧所困扰，部分原因是该国债务沉重，另一方面是因为来自游客收入的减少。对于肯尼亚这样一个背负着沉重债务负担的能源进口国来说，旅游业的打击和油价上涨是一个不幸的组合。

A third influence is the imf. Understanding its ways is an essential part of investing in emerging-market bonds. The fund has lent a total of $110bn, supporting 86 countries, since the pandemic struck. Some of this has been in the form of debt relief; some in rapid-fire lending and credit lines; some of it is programme lending with strings⁸ attached. The IMF is readying a $650bn issue of special drawing rights (SDRS)—essentially an overdraft⁹ facility at a negligible interest rate—for its members. The SDR gift will make a big difference to smaller countries, in some cases doubling their foreign-exchange reserves, says Yvette Babb of William Blair, an asset manager.

第三个影响因素是国际货币基金组织。了解其方向是投资新兴市场债券必不可少的一部分。自疫情爆发以来，该基金总共提供了1100亿美元贷款，支持了86个国家。其中一些是以债务减免的形式，一些是快速发放贷款和信用额度，其中一些是附加条件的项目贷款。国际货币基金组织正准备为其成员国发行6500亿美元的特别提款权——本质上是一种利率可忽略不计的透支工具。资产管理公司William Blair的伊薇特·芭布表示，特别提款权的馈赠将对小国产生巨大的影响，在某些情况下会使它们的外汇储备翻一番。

A frosty relationship with the fund is probably unwise. The kinder, gentler IMF has kept sovereign defaults in check much as central-bank action and fiscal¹⁰ stimulus¹¹ have kept corporate¹² defaults in check in the rich world. There may well be further setbacks to some sovereign Eurobond issuers. But a lot more yieldstarved investors may soon be dusting off their atlases¹³.

与IMF的冷淡关系可能是不明智的。更友善、更温和的国际货币基金组织一直在控制主权债务违约，就像发达国家通过央行的行动和财政刺激来控制企业债务违约一样。一些欧洲主权债券发行者很可能会遭遇进一步的挫折。而更多渴望收益的投资者可能很快就会抹去他们地图册上的灰尘。

1 maturity   

n.成熟；完成；(支票、债券等)到期

参考例句：

• These plants ought to reach maturity after five years.这些植物五年后就该长成了。
• This is the period at which the body attains maturity.这是身体发育成熟的时期。

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

4 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

5 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

6 pickup   

n.拾起，获得

参考例句：

• I would love to trade this car for a pickup truck.我愿意用这辆汽车换一辆小型轻便卡车。||The luck guy is a choice pickup for the girls.那位幸运的男孩是女孩子们想勾搭上的人。

7 copper   

n.铜；铜币；铜器；adj.铜(制)的；(紫)铜色的

参考例句：

• The students are asked to prove the purity of copper.要求学生们检验铜的纯度。
• Copper is a good medium for the conduction of heat and electricity.铜是热和电的良导体。

8 strings   

n.弦

参考例句：

• He sat on the bed,idly plucking the strings of his guitar.他坐在床上，随意地拨着吉他的弦。
• She swept her fingers over the strings of the harp.她用手指划过竖琴的琴弦。

9 overdraft   

n.透支，透支额

参考例句：

• Her bank warned that unless she repaid the overdraft she could face legal action.银行警告她如果不偿还透支钱款，她将面临诉讼。
• An overdraft results when a note discounted at a bank is not met when due.银行贴现的支票到期而未能支付就成为透支。

10 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

11 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

12 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

13 atlases   

地图集( atlas的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Besides the two novels, I have bought two atlases. 我买了两本小说，另外还买了两本地图册。
• The facts of monsoon climate have been presented in a number of texts and atlases. 季风气候的一些事实已在一些教科书和气候图集中加以介绍。