TED演讲:为什么智能统计数据是打击犯罪的关键(6)

The people who we find are the highest-risk offenders¹,

那些我们抓获的高危险罪犯，

the people who we think have the highest likelihood of committing a new crime if they're released,

那些被认为一旦释放会有极高的可能性再次犯罪的人，

we see nationally that 50 percent of those people are being released.

在全国范围内，其中的50%正在回归社会。

The reason for this is the way we make decisions.

是我们做决定的方式导致的这种结果。

Judges have the best intentions when they make these decisions about risk, but they're making them subjectively³.

法官怀着善意做出这些有风险的决定，但这是主观的决定。

They're like the baseball scouts⁴ 20 years ago who were using their instinct and their experience to try to decide what risk someone poses.

他们就像20年前的棒球侦查员，他们凭本能和经验试着去判断某个人制造的危险。

They're being subjective², and we know what happens with subjective decision making, which is that we are often wrong.

他们是主观的，我们知道主观决策会导致什么，那就是我们常常犯错。

What we need in this space are strong data and analytics.

我们需要的是有力的数据和分析。

What I decided⁶ to look for was a strong data and analytic⁵ risk assessment⁷ tool,

我决定寻找一个有力的数据分析的风险评估工具，

something that would let judges actually understand with a scientific and objective way what the risk was that was posed by someone in front of them.

这个工具会让法官以科学的客观的方式去了解什么样的风险摆在他们面前。

I looked all over the country, and I found that between five and 10 percent of all U.S. jurisdictions⁹ actually use any type of risk assessment tool,

我找遍了全国，发现5%至10%的美国管辖区域实际使用了某些类型的风险评估工具，

and when I looked at these tools, I quickly realized why.

我查看了这些评估工具之后，很快意识到其中缘由。

They were unbelievably expensive to administer, they were time-consuming,

它们应用起来非常昂贵，非常耗时，

they were limited to the local jurisdiction⁸ in which they'd been created.

它们被限制在地方管辖区域，因为它们就出自那里。

So basically, they couldn't be scaled or transferred to other places.

因此，基本上，它们不能扩展或转移到其他地方。

So I went out and built a phenomenal team of data scientists and researchers and statisticians to build a universal risk assessment tool,

所以我组建了一个出色的团队，由数据科学家和研究人员还有统计人员组成，建立一个通用的风险评估工具，

so that every single judge in the United States of America can have an objective, scientific measure of risk.

这样一来，全美的每一个法官都可以做一个客观、科学的风险评估。

1 offenders   

n.冒犯者( offender的名词复数 )；犯规者；罪犯；妨害…的人（或事物）

参考例句：

• Long prison sentences can be a very effective deterrent for offenders. 判处长期徒刑可对违法者起到强有力的威慑作用。
• Purposeful work is an important part of the regime for young offenders. 使从事有意义的劳动是管理少年犯的重要方法。

2 subjective   

a.主观(上)的，个人的

参考例句：

• The way they interpreted their past was highly subjective. 他们解释其过去的方式太主观。
• A literary critic should not be too subjective in his approach. 文学评论家的看法不应太主观。

3 subjectively   

主观地； 臆

参考例句：

• Subjectively, the demand of interest is the desire of human being. 荀子所说的对利的需要从主观上说就是人的欲望。
• A sound also has an amplitude, a property subjectively heard as loudness. 声音有振幅，振幅的主观感觉是声音的大小。

4 scouts   

侦察员[机，舰]( scout的名词复数 )； 童子军； 搜索； 童子军成员

参考例句：

• to join the Scouts 参加童子军
• The scouts paired off and began to patrol the area. 巡逻人员两个一组，然后开始巡逻这个地区。

5 analytic   

adj.分析的，用分析方法的

参考例句：

• The boy has an analytic mind. 这男孩有分析的头脑。
• Latin is a synthetic language,while English is analytic.拉丁文是一种综合性语言，而英语是一种分析性语言。

6 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

7 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

8 jurisdiction   

n.司法权，审判权，管辖权，控制权

参考例句：

• It doesn't lie within my jurisdiction to set you free.我无权将你释放。
• Changzhou is under the jurisdiction of Jiangsu Province.常州隶属江苏省。

9 jurisdictions   

司法权( jurisdiction的名词复数 )； 裁判权； 管辖区域； 管辖范围

参考例句：

• Butler entreated him to remember the act abolishing the heritable jurisdictions. 巴特勒提醒他注意废除世袭审判权的国会法令。
• James I personally adjudicated between the two jurisdictions. 詹姆士一世亲自裁定双方纠纷。