TED演讲:我们能够避免老化(3)

 　　The geriatrician will intervene late in the day,  老年医学医生会在一个人老化过程的后段，

　　when pathology is becoming evident,  病理越来越明显的时候，

　　and the geriatrician will try and hold back the sands of time,  做治疗来尽量阻止老化时间

　　and stop the accumulation of side effects  和副作用积累

　　from causing the pathology quite so soon.  并且阻止那么快就造成不可避免地死亡。

　　Of course, it's a very short-term-ist strategy; it's a losing battle,  当然，这是一个非常短暂的战略，是一个败仗，

　　because the things that are causing the pathology  因为导致病理不可避免地死亡的这些副作用

　　are becoming more abundant as time goes on.  会随着时间的推移越来越多。

　　The gerontology approach looks much more promising¹ on the surface,  老年学的方法在表面上看起来更充满希望具发展前景，

　　because, you know, prevention is better than cure.  因为你们也知道，预防胜于治疗。

　　But unfortunately the thing is that we don't understand metabolism² very well.  但不幸的是，我们对新陈代谢的理解非常少。

　　In fact, we have a pitifully poor understanding of how organisms work --  事实上，我们对生物体的了解少的可怜 –

　　even cells we're not really too good on yet.  甚至细胞，我们都不是很懂。

　　We've discovered things like, for example,  连对细胞如何操作的

　　RNA interference only a few years ago,  基本知识，例如核糖核酸机能失常，

　　and this is a really fundamental component³ of how cells work.  在仅仅几年前,我们才发现它。

　　Basically, gerontology is a fine approach in the end,  基本上，如果我们要讨论在我们一生中能用到的延长寿命的治疗，

　　but it is not an approach whose time has come  老年学以后将会是一个很好的方法，

　　when we're talking about intervention⁴.  但它的时机未到。

　　So then, what do we do about that?  然后呢，这怎么办呢？

　　I mean, that's a fine logic⁵, that sounds pretty convincing,  我的意思，这是一个很好的逻辑，

　　pretty ironclad, doesn't it?  听起来非常有说服力的，不是吗？

　　But it isn't.  但事实并非如此。

　　Before I tell you why it isn't, I'm going to go a little bit  在我告诉你为什么不能之前，

　　into what I'm calling step two.  我要谈谈我所谓的第二步。

　　Just suppose, as I said, that we do acquire --  我们假设，如果正如我所说的，

　　let's say we do it today for the sake of argument --  我们 -假设说今天 –

　　the ability to confer 30 extra years of healthy life  就拥有能够给现在已是中年，假设说五十五岁的人，

　　on people who are already in middle age, let's say 55.  多三十年的健康寿命的治疗方法。

　　I'm going to call that "robust⁶ human rejuvenation⁷." OK.  我称这为‘强健人类再生’ 。好。

　　What would that actually mean  那么实际上这对于现在不同年龄的人们，

　　for how long people of various ages today --  或者相等地，当这些治疗方法到达时

　　or equivalently, of various ages at the time that these therapies arrive --  已是不同年龄的人有什么影响呢？

　　would actually live?  他们会活多久些呢？

　　In order to answer that question -- you might think it's simple,  你可能会认为回答这个问题很简单，

　　but it's not simple.  但它并不简单。

　　We can't just say, "Well, if they're young enough to benefit from these therapies,  我们不能只是说：“好吧，如果他们足够年轻，得益于这些治疗方法，

　　then they'll live 30 years longer."  那么他们就会活多三十年的时间。”

　　That's the wrong answer.  这是错误的答案。

　　And the reason it's the wrong answer is because of progress.  而错误的原因是因为进步。

　　There are two sorts of technological⁸ progress really,  对于我们这方面的治疗，

　　for this purpose.  科学进步有两种。

　　There are fundamental, major breakthroughs,  第一种是突破性的进步，

　　and there are incremental⁹ refinements¹⁰ of those breakthroughs.  然后还有第二种就是不断的在那些突破性的进步上做出改良和提高它们的有效率。

　　Now, they differ a great deal  这两种科学进步所需的

　　in terms of the predictability of time frames.  时间的预测度有很大的不同。

　　Fundamental breakthroughs:  我们很难预测

　　very hard to predict how long it's going to take  多久才会有

　　to make a fundamental breakthrough.  突破性的进步。

　　It was a very long time ago that we decided¹¹ that flying would be fun,  人类很有可能在很多年前就想在天空上飞行了，

　　and it took us until 1903 to actually work out how to do it.  可是要等到一九零三年才发现到底怎么飞行。

　　But after that, things were pretty steady and pretty uniform.  可是这之后，人类飞行的科技就很有步骤地发展下去。

　　I think this is a reasonable sequence of events that happened  我认为这是一个很合乎情理才导致了

　　in the progression of the technology of powered flight.  动力飞行的科技进展。

　　We can think, really, that each one is sort of  我们可以想象这些科技发展的每一步都是

　　beyond the imagination of the inventor of the previous one, if you like.  上一步的研发人所想不到的。

　　The incremental advances have added up to something  比起原先每次都递进增值

　　which is not incremental anymore.  有进展。

　　This is the sort of thing you see after a fundamental breakthrough.  在每个科学突破性的进步后，您都会看到这些有步骤性的发展。

　　And you see it in all sorts of technologies.  而且在很多科技上都是这样。

　　Computers: you can look at a more or less parallel time line,  比如说电脑，和飞行科技也很类似，

　　happening of course a bit later.  只是发生的时间不同罢了。

　　You can look at medical care. I mean, hygiene¹², vaccines¹³, antibiotics¹⁴ --  您也可以看一看医药保健科技，比如说卫生，疫苗，抗生素，

　　you know, the same sort of time frame.  也有着一样的发展时间表。

　　So I think that actually step two, that I called a step a moment ago,  因此，我认为其实两个步骤，我刚才称为一个步骤，

　　isn't a step at all.  并不完全是一个步骤。

　　That in fact, the people who are young enough  事实上，很年轻的人

　　to benefit from these first therapies  会从这些实验治疗方法受益，

　　that give this moderate amount of life extension,  能使人们的生命适量延长，

　　even though those people are already middle-aged¹⁵ when the therapies arrive,  即使这些人已经中年，当这些治疗方法来到

　　will be at some sort of cusp.  人们还可以尝试治疗方法。

　　They will mostly survive long enough to receive improved treatments  他们多数活得足够长来接受改进的治疗方法，

　　that will give them a further 30 or maybe 50 years.  从而使他们多活30年甚至50年。

　　In other words, they will be staying ahead of the game.  换句话说，他们将领先于老化的速度。

1 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

2 metabolism   

n.新陈代谢

参考例句：

• After years of dieting,Carol's metabolism was completely out of whack.经过数年的节食，卡罗尔的新陈代谢完全紊乱了。
• All living matter undergoes a process of metabolism.生物都有新陈代谢。

3 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

4 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

5 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

6 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

7 rejuvenation   

n. 复原，再生, 更新, 嫩化, 恢复

参考例句：

• Prolonged starvation and aging might lead to rejuvenation of embryogenic potential. 长期的饥饿和衰老可以导致胚胎发生能力的复壮。
• All this signs rejuvenation of agriculture. 所有这些都预示着农业将复苏。

8 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

9 incremental   

adj.增加的

参考例句：

• For logic devices, the incremental current gain is very important. 对于逻辑器件来说，提高电流增益是非常重要的。 来自辞典例句
• By using an incremental approach, the problems involving material or geometric nonlinearity have been solved. 借应用一种增量方法，已经解决了包括材料的或几何的非线性问题。 来自辞典例句

10 refinements   

n.（生活）风雅；精炼( refinement的名词复数 )；改良品；细微的改良；优雅或高贵的动作

参考例句：

• The new model has electric windows and other refinements. 新型号有电动窗和其他改良装置。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• It is possible to add a few useful refinements to the basic system. 对基本系统进行一些有益的改良是可能的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

12 hygiene   

n.健康法，卫生学 （a.hygienic）

参考例句：

• Their course of study includes elementary hygiene and medical theory.他们的课程包括基础卫生学和医疗知识。
• He's going to give us a lecture on public hygiene.他要给我们作关于公共卫生方面的报告。

13 vaccines   

疫苗，痘苗( vaccine的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His team are at the forefront of scientific research into vaccines. 他的小组处于疫苗科研的最前沿。
• The vaccines were kept cool in refrigerators. 疫苗放在冰箱中冷藏。

14 antibiotics   

n.（用作复数）抗生素；（用作单数）抗生物质的研究；抗生素，抗菌素( antibiotic的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• the discovery of antibiotics in the 20th century 20世纪抗生素的发现
• The doctor gave me a prescription for antibiotics. 医生给我开了抗生素。

15 middle-aged   

adj.中年的

参考例句：

• I noticed two middle-aged passengers.我注意到两个中年乘客。
• The new skin balm was welcome by middle-aged women.这种新护肤香膏受到了中年妇女的欢迎。