TED演讲:我们能够避免老化(4)

 　　The therapies will be improving faster than  治疗法比起治疗法中存在的缺陷

　　the remaining imperfections in the therapies are catching¹ up with us.  改进得更快。

　　This is a very important point for me to get across.  这是我想说的非常重要的一点。

　　Because, you know, most people, when they hear  因为，很多人一听到

　　that I predict that a lot of people alive today are going to live to 1,000 or more,  我推测很多现在活着的人将会活到一千或更多年以上，

　　they think that I'm saying that we're going to invent therapies in the next few decades  他们都在想，哦，我们将会在这几十年内发明

　　that are so thoroughly² eliminating aging  延缓老化的治疗方法，

　　that those therapies will let us live to 1,000 or more.  研究如何活到一千年甚至更多的治疗方法。

　　I'm not saying that at all.  我并不是这么说。

　　I'm saying that the rate of improvement of those therapies  我说的只是这些延长寿命的治疗方法的

　　will be enough.  发展速度会足够使人们继续活下去。

　　They'll never be perfect, but we'll be able to fix the things  这些治疗方法我想永远都不可能完美，

　　that 200-year-olds die of, before we have any 200-year-olds.  但我们将可以在还没有两百岁的人之前就研究到如何治疗两百岁的人所死于的病理因素。

　　And the same for 300 and 400 and so on.  接下来，我们就在还没有三，四百岁的人之前就研究到如何治疗三，四百岁的人所死于的因素。

　　I decided³ to give this a little name,  我称这为“长寿逃逸速度”，

　　which is "longevity⁴ escape velocity⁵."  要逃离死亡，长寿治疗方法必有快速的发展，叫逃逸速度。

　　Well, it seems to get the point across.  这是个很容易明白的名称。

　　So, these trajectories⁶ here are basically how we would expect people to live,  这就是我们可以期待

　　in terms of remaining life expectancy,  在余下的预期寿命，

　　as measured by their health,  以他们的健康来衡量，

　　for given ages that they were at the time that these therapies arrive.  到了一定年龄，相对应的治疗就相应而出。

　　If you're already 100, or even if you're 80 --  如果你已经100岁，或者你是80岁，

　　and an average 80-year-old,  平均80岁，

　　we probably can't do a lot for you with these therapies,  我们可能很难为您做些什么，

　　because you're too close to death's door  因为您的时间不多了。

　　for the really initial, experimental therapies to be good enough for you.  所以最初的，实验性疗法对你已经不起作用了。

　　You won't be able to withstand them.  你将无法避免老化。

　　But if you're only 50, then there's a chance  可是，如果您才五十岁的话，

　　that you might be able to pull out of the dive and, you know --  您很有可能像我刚刚描述的那个样子摆脱了老化去世的问题。

　　eventually get through this  您不但可以活的更久些，

　　and start becoming biologically younger in a meaningful sense,  某种意义上

　　in terms of your youthfulness, both physical and mental,  你的青春，从身体和头脑上，你的生命变得更加年轻，

　　and in terms of your risk of death from age-related causes.  你死于和老化有关的病症的几率也会降低。

　　And of course, if you're a bit younger than that,  当然，如果你还不到五十岁的话，

　　then you're never really even going  您更有可能永远摆脱了老化去世的问题，

　　to get near to being fragile enough to die of age-related causes.  而不会虚弱因老化而生成的疾病死亡。

　　So this is a genuine conclusion that I come to, that the first 150-year-old --  因此，这是我得到的一个真正的结论，就是说第一位能够活到一百五十岁 –

　　we don't know how old that person is today,  我们不知道该人现在多老了，

　　because we don't know how long it's going to take  因为我们不知道第一代

　　to get these first-generation therapies.  疗法要多久才会出现。

　　But irrespective of that age,  但无论是年龄，

　　I'm claiming that the first person to live to 1,000 --  我声称的第一人会活到一千年的人 –

　　subject of course, to, you know, global catastrophes⁷ --  当然，排除全球性灾难 - 实际上，

　　is actually, probably, only about 10 years younger than the first 150-year-old.  大概只有比我说的那位活到一百五十岁的人年轻十岁左右。

　　And that's quite a thought.  很令人值得想一想的结论吧。

　　Alright, so finally I'm going to spend the rest of the talk,  好，接下来我要用这个讲座所剩下的时间，

　　my last seven-and-a-half minutes, on step one;  我的七个半分钟来谈谈我所谓的第一个步骤，

　　namely, how do we actually get to this moderate amount of life extension  就是我们如何得到这第一批延长寿命的适中治疗，

　　that will allow us to get to escape velocity?  使我们可以达到长寿逃逸速度？

　　And in order to do that, I need to talk about mice a little bit.  而为了做到这一点，我需要说一点点关于老鼠的事。

　　I have a corresponding milestone⁸ to robust⁹ human rejuvenation¹⁰.  我有一个对强健人类再生相应的里程碑，

　　I'm calling it "robust mouse rejuvenation," not very imaginatively.  我不是很富有想象力地称它为强健老鼠再生。

　　And this is what it is.  这是什么呢？

　　I say we're going to take a long-lived strain of mouse,  就是我们要采用一种长寿的老鼠，

　　which basically means mice that live about three years on average.  就等于平均可以活三年左右的老鼠。

　　We do exactly nothing to them until they're already two years old.  我们完全没有碰过它们，直到它们已经两岁。

　　And then we do a whole bunch of stuff to them,  然后我们对它们做了一大堆的东西，

　　and with those therapies, we get them to live,  用那些治疗方法使它们延长寿命，

　　on average, to their fifth birthday.  想办法让他们平均活到五岁。

　　So, in other words, we add two years --  因此，换句话说，我们开始把这些老鼠治疗后，添加了两年寿命 –

　　we treble their remaining lifespan,  已经是它们剩余寿命

　　starting from the point that we started the therapies.  的三倍。

　　The question then is, what would that actually mean for the time frame  接下来的问题是，到底什么时候，

　　until we get to the milestone I talked about earlier for humans?  我们讨论的这些才能用在人类身上呢？

　　Which we can now, as I've explained,  我们现在可以，正如我已经解释过，

　　equivalently call either robust human rejuvenation or longevity escape velocity.  把它称为强健人类再生，或长寿逃逸速度。

　　Secondly¹¹, what does it mean for the public's perception  第二，从我们得到的第一只老鼠时开始，

　　of how long it's going to take for us to get to those things,  公众对多久我们才能获得这些东西，

　　starting from the time we get the mice?  对这些科技的发展有什么影响？

　　And thirdly, the question is, what will it do  第三，问题是，它对多少人想要避免老化的人们起作用？

　　to actually how much people want it?  这些科技有什么影响呢？

1 catching   

adj.易传染的，有魅力的，迷人的，接住

参考例句：

• There are those who think eczema is catching.有人就是认为湿疹会传染。
• Enthusiasm is very catching.热情非常富有感染力。

2 thoroughly   

adv.完全地，彻底地，十足地

参考例句：

• The soil must be thoroughly turned over before planting.一定要先把土地深翻一遍再下种。
• The soldiers have been thoroughly instructed in the care of their weapons.士兵们都系统地接受过保护武器的训练。

3 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

4 longevity   

n.长命；长寿

参考例句：

• Good habits promote longevity.良好的习惯能增长寿命。
• Human longevity runs in families.人类的长寿具有家族遗传性。

5 velocity   

n.速度，速率

参考例句：

• Einstein's theory links energy with mass and velocity of light.爱因斯坦的理论把能量同质量和光速联系起来。
• The velocity of light is about 300000 kilometres per second.光速约为每秒300000公里。

6 trajectories   

n.弹道( trajectory的名词复数 )；轨道；轨线；常角轨道

参考例句：

• To answer this question, we need to plot trajectories of principal stresses. 为了回答这个问题，我们尚须画出主应力迹线图。 来自辞典例句
• In the space program the theory is used to determine spaceship trajectories. 在空间计划中，这个理论用于确定飞船的轨道。 来自辞典例句

7 catastrophes   

n.灾祸( catastrophe的名词复数 )；灾难；不幸事件；困难

参考例句：

• Two of history's worst natural catastrophes occurred in 1970. 1970年发生了历史上最严重两次自然灾害。 来自辞典例句
• The Swiss deposits contain evidence of such catastrophes. 瑞士的遗址里还有这种灾难的证据。 来自辞典例句

8 milestone   

n.里程碑；划时代的事件

参考例句：

• The film proved to be a milestone in the history of cinema.事实证明这部影片是电影史上的一个里程碑。
• I think this is a very important milestone in the relations between our two countries.我认为这是我们两国关系中一个十分重要的里程碑。

9 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

10 rejuvenation   

n. 复原，再生, 更新, 嫩化, 恢复

参考例句：

• Prolonged starvation and aging might lead to rejuvenation of embryogenic potential. 长期的饥饿和衰老可以导致胚胎发生能力的复壮。
• All this signs rejuvenation of agriculture. 所有这些都预示着农业将复苏。

11 secondly   

adv.第二，其次

参考例句：

• Secondly,use your own head and present your point of view.第二，动脑筋提出自己的见解。
• Secondly it is necessary to define the applied load.其次，需要确定所作用的载荷。