纽约时报 美联储即将迎来金融危机后的首次降息(3)

Interest rates make matters worse.

利率导致了事态的进一步恶化。

The Fed policy setting that neither stokes nor reins¹ in growth has been creeping lower as growth slows,

随着经济增长放缓，美联储既不刺激也不控制经济增长的所谓中性利率水平已经缓慢下行，

a trend that has been slowly playing out for years across advanced economies.

然而，所有发达经济体都出现了这一趋势，且都已缓慢发展数年。

That’s why policymakers have not been able to lift rates more despite a very long expansion:

这就是经过了长期扩张，政策制定者仍未能进一步提高利率的原因：

The economy needs very low rates just to sustain historically ho-hum progress.

尽管从历史角度来看，当前的增速平平无奇，但要维持这一增速，美联储必须让利率维持在低位。

And it leaves the Fed with far less ammunition² to fight future downturns.

这样一来，未来经济出现下行，美联储采取货币政策的空间就会十分有限。

Gone are the days of cutting 5 percentage points to goad³ growth back to life, as the Fed did in 2007 and 2008.

像2007年和2008年那样削减5个百分点以刺激经济增长的日子已经一去不返。

Between the continuing shortfall and the Fed’s more limited room to maneuver⁴,

美国经济一而再再而三地未能如愿增长，加上美联储的施展空间越来越小，

officials think the risks of waiting too long to adjust policy are much greater than the costs of going early and later discovering that they could have held off.

官员们认为，调整政策之前等待太久带来的风险要远大于早早地采取措施，哪怕后来发现原本可以推迟行动的成本。

“It’s better to take preventive measures than to wait for disaster to unfold,”

“与其坐等灾难发生，不如提前采取预防措施，”

John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said on July 18.

纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·C·威廉姆斯在7月18日说道。

“When you only have so much stimulus⁵ at your disposal,

“当你手上只有这么多刺激措施时，

it pays to act quickly to lower rates at the first sign of economic distress⁶.”

首次出现经济不景气的迹象时就迅速采取行动，降低利率是有好处的。”

The Fed has acted early to get ahead of the curve in the past.

过去，美联储实行的就是提前采取行动这一策略。

Of the seven initial rate cuts that have happened outside of recessions in the past 30 years —

过去30年里，除去经济衰退时期，美国一共实行了7轮降息，就每一轮的首次降息而言——

moves that were or could have been seen as precautionary — 1998 is the most similar to now.

当时被视为或原本能被视为预防措施的举措——1998年的情形和当下最为接近。

As “Armageddon” smashed the box office and 8-year-olds across the country struggled to keep Tamagotchis alive,

那年，《世界末日》打破了票房纪录，全国各地8岁的孩子都在忙着养他们的电子宠物Tamagotchis，

the job market looked hot, inflation lingered below 2 percent,

就业市场十分火爆，通胀率也维持在2%以下，

and, like today, the economic picture at home looked mixed as risks abroad mounted.

此外，和当下的情形一样，国内的经济形势已经喜忧参半，因为国外风险越来越大——

Back then a financial crisis in Russia, a contraction⁷ in Japan and election and reforms in Brazil threatened the United States expansion.

当时，俄罗斯出现了金融危机、日本经济也在衰退、加上巴西的选举和改革，这些因素无不威胁着美国经济的进一步扩张。

The Fed cut by a quarter-point in September 1998 and followed that up with an impromptu⁸ cut in mid-October and another in November.

1998年9月，美联储降息25个基点，随后的10月中旬和11月也接连采取了临时降息。

The economy righted itself.

正因如此，当年的经济才得以恢复正常。

But there are major differences between that experience and this one.

问题是，那次的情形与当下有着重大区别。

The Fed moved quickly in 1998 while stock markets were sinking on the heels of very real events,

那一次，美联储迅速采取了行动，尽管大型对冲基金长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近倒闭等

including the near-failure of Long-Term Capital Management, a major hedge fund.

看似不太可能，实则千真万确的事情一发生，美国股市就出现了大跌。

This time, the Fed merely signaled coming moves when both real economic data and stocks were wobbling back in May and early June,

这一次，早在5月到6月初，由于深受贸易战升级这一恐慌情绪的惊吓，美国的实际经济数据和股市都已经出现了波动，

spooked by the specter of trade escalation⁹.

即便如此，美联储也只是发出了即将采取行动的信号，

Economic data has since improved, and the Fed’s guidance helped to send equity¹⁰ indexes to record highs.

自那以来，经济数据已经有所好转，美联储的领导也推动股指上升至创记录水平。

“We did not move at the June meeting, but in effect we did move at the June meeting, because markets already priced that in,”

“我们并没有在6月的会议上采取行动，但因为市场已经把波动算进去了，所以也就相当于我们那时就已经开始采取行动了，”

James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, told reporters on July 19.

圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长詹姆斯·布拉德7月19日对记者说道。

Mr. Bullard and other Fed officials have tried to signal that this cut may be isolated¹¹ if the economy stays on track.

布拉德和其他美联储官员一直试图暗示如果经济能够维持在正轨上，这次降息之后或许不会出现二次降息。

Despite their assurances that policy will be flexible and data-dependent and a recent improvement in several economic indicators¹²,

尽管他们保证未来的政策尊重数据且足够灵活，尽管最近几个经济指标均已有所改善，

market pricing suggests investors¹³ are betting on further easing before the end of the year.

市场价格表明，投资者还在指望今年年底之前出现二次降息。

1 reins   

感情，激情； 缰( rein的名词复数 )； 控制手段； 掌管； （成人带着幼儿走路以防其走失时用的）保护带

参考例句：

• She pulled gently on the reins. 她轻轻地拉着缰绳。
• The government has imposed strict reins on the import of luxury goods. 政府对奢侈品的进口有严格的控制手段。

2 ammunition   

n.军火，弹药

参考例句：

• A few of the jeeps had run out of ammunition.几辆吉普车上的弹药已经用光了。
• They have expended all their ammunition.他们把弹药用光。

3 goad   

n.刺棒，刺痛物；激励；vt.激励，刺激

参考例句：

• The opposition is trying to goad the government into calling an election.在野反对党正努力激起政府提出选举。
• The writer said he needed some goad because he was indolent.这个作家说他需要刺激，因为他很懒惰。

4 maneuver   

n.策略[pl.]演习；v.(巧妙)控制；用策略

参考例句：

• All the fighters landed safely on the airport after the military maneuver.在军事演习后，所有战斗机都安全降落在机场上。
• I did get her attention with this maneuver.我用这个策略确实引起了她的注意。

5 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

6 distress   

n.苦恼，痛苦，不舒适；不幸；vt.使悲痛

参考例句：

• Nothing could alleviate his distress.什么都不能减轻他的痛苦。
• Please don't distress yourself.请你不要忧愁了。

7 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

8 impromptu   

adj.即席的，即兴的；adv.即兴的(地)，无准备的(地)

参考例句：

• The announcement was made in an impromptu press conference at the airport.这一宣布是在机场举行的临时新闻发布会上作出的。
• The children put on an impromptu concert for the visitors.孩子们为来访者即兴献上了一场音乐会。

9 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

10 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

11 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。

12 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

13 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会