2018年经济学人 代代叠加:投机泡沫(1)

 

A third, more anarchic way to transfer resources from young to old is a speculative¹ bubble.

第三种、同时也是更为无序地将资源从年轻人转移到老年人的方式是投机泡沫。

In a bubble, people pay over the odds² for an asset, such as a house, in the belief that subsequent investors³ will pay a higher price still.

泡沫中，带着后来的投资者会开出更高的价格的信念，人们为某种资产，如房屋，支付超出其赔率的钱。

The overpayment amounts to a contribution to a Ponzi scheme, redeemed⁴ not by the earnings⁵ of the underlying⁶ asset, but by overpayments from later investors.

这种超额支付相当于对庞氏骗局的出资，它不是由标的资产的收益来偿付的，而是由来自后来的投资者的超额支付来偿付的。

If each generation is collectively richer than the last, then the asset's price can keep rising even if each buyer sinks only the same percentage of their (rising) income into it.

如果每一代人总体上都比上一代人更为富有，那么，就算是每一位买家投入其中的只是其（不断上涨的）的收入的相同百分比，资产的价格也能保持上涨。

All these mechanisms⁷ have side-effects.

所有这些机制都有副作用。

Government debt can crowd out productive investment.

政府债务可能挤出生产性投资。

Bubbles can do the same.

泡沫可能作出同样的事情。

But in an economy suffering from dynamic inefficiency⁸, this crowding out is a good thing.

但是，在饱受动态无效率之苦的经济体中，这种挤出是一件好事。

Such an economy has accumulated too much capital.

这样的经济体积累了太多的资本。

It requires heavy investment to keep this large stock of machinery⁹, equipment, buildings and infrastructure¹⁰ growing in line with the economy.

它需要大笔的投资，以保持大量的机器、设备、建筑和基础设施与经济同步增长。

The young are tempted¹¹ to add yet more capital in an effort to transfer resources to their future, older selves.

诱惑之下，年轻人增加了更多的资本，视图将资源转移给未来的、年老的自己。

Yet because the returns are so low, it is more efficient for them to transfer resources directly to today's elderly (by contributing to social security, buying government bonds or overpaying for the old people's assets), on the understanding that tomorrow's young will do the same for them.

然而，由于回报太低，对他们来说，基于明天的年轻一代会为他们做同样的事的认识，（通过缴纳社会保险，购买政府债券或是对老年人的资产多付钱等方式）把资源直接转移给今天的老年人效率更高。

Under certain conditions, then, Ponzi principles are efficient not maleficent.

因而，在特定条件下，庞氏原理是有效的，而不是有害的。

But are those conditions ever found in the real world?

但是，这些条件曾在现实世界中被发现过吗？

One way to look for them is to compare interest rates (which represent the return on capital) and GDP growth rates (which reflect both population growth and increases in income per person).

寻找它们的一种办法是比较（代表资本回报的利率）和（反映人口与人均收入增长的）GDP增长率。

An alternative, stiffer test (which works well under certain assumptions) is to compare investment and profits.

一种（在一定的假设下运转良好的）具有替代性的和更为严格的验证是比较投资和利润。

If national investment is greater than profits, a country is ploughing more into its stock of capital than it earns from it.

如果国民投资大于利润，国家正在将多于从中挣得钱投入到资本存量之中。

It is as if the islanders are replanting all of the fruit they collect from the additional trees they have cultivated (minus whatever fruit they need to compensate¹² themselves for their labour) plus a few more.

这就好比岛民们正在把比他们能从自己所培育的额外的树上收集到的全部还要多的果实重新种下去一样。

The economy's efforts to save and invest for the future are overloading¹³ the available vehicles for thrift¹⁴.

经济体的为未来储蓄和投资的尝试正负载着过多的可以得到的节俭载体。

Economists¹⁵ used to be confident that most economies were on the right side of this test, earning far more in profit than they invested.

之前，经济学家曾经对大多数经济体在这种验证的正确一边充满自信，认为经济体在利润方面的所得远远超过投入。

1 speculative   

adj.思索性的，暝想性的，推理的

参考例句：

• Much of our information is speculative.我们的许多信息是带推测性的。
• The report is highly speculative and should be ignored.那个报道推测的成分很大，不应理会。

2 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 redeemed   

adj. 可赎回的，可救赎的 动词redeem的过去式和过去分词形式

参考例句：

• She has redeemed her pawned jewellery. 她赎回了当掉的珠宝。
• He redeemed his watch from the pawnbroker's. 他从当铺赎回手表。

5 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

6 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

7 mechanisms   

n.机械( mechanism的名词复数 )；机械装置；[生物学] 机制；机械作用

参考例句：

• The research will provide direct insight into molecular mechanisms. 这项研究将使人能够直接地了解分子的机理。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He explained how the two mechanisms worked. 他解释这两台机械装置是如何工作的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 inefficiency   

n.无效率，无能；无效率事例

参考例句：

• Conflict between management and workers makes for inefficiency in the workplace. 资方与工人之间的冲突使得工厂生产效率很低。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• This type of inefficiency arises because workers and management are ill-equipped. 出现此种低效率是因为工人与管理层都能力不足。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 machinery   

n.(总称)机械，机器；机构

参考例句：

• Has the machinery been put up ready for the broadcast?广播器材安装完毕了吗？
• Machinery ought to be well maintained all the time.机器应该随时注意维护。

10 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

11 tempted   

v.怂恿（某人）干不正当的事；冒…的险（tempt的过去分词）

参考例句：

• I was sorely tempted to complain, but I didn't. 我极想发牢骚，但还是没开口。
• I was tempted by the dessert menu. 甜食菜单馋得我垂涎欲滴。

12 compensate   

vt.补偿，赔偿；酬报 vi.弥补；补偿；抵消

参考例句：

• She used her good looks to compensate her lack of intelligence. 她利用她漂亮的外表来弥补智力的不足。
• Nothing can compensate for the loss of one's health. 一个人失去了键康是不可弥补的。

13 overloading   

过载，超载，过负载

参考例句：

• Enables multiple users to search the site without overloading the server. 使多个用户搜索网站，而无需超载的服务器上。
• The driver got stripped down again for overloading his trunk. 那位卡车司机因为超载又受到责备。

14 thrift   

adj.节约，节俭；n.节俭，节约

参考例句：

• He has the virtues of thrift and hard work.他具备节俭和勤奋的美德。
• His thrift and industry speak well for his future.他的节俭和勤勉预示着他美好的未来。

15 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》