2018年经济学人 代代叠加:投机泡沫(2)

 

Recent research is less definitive¹.

近来的研究少了一些确定性。

Franois Geerolf of the University of California, Los Angeles believes that Japan suffers from dynamic inefficiency².

洛杉矶加州大学的弗朗索瓦·吉奥尔夫认为，日本饱受动态无效率之苦。

And he cannot rule out the possibility that all the G7 countries (and nine others) suffer similarly.

而且他还不可能排除所有的G7国家（以及另外9个国家）也同样饱受其苦的可能性。

If so, the implications are provocative³.

倘若如此，其含义是爆炸性的。

They imply that G7 public debt is soaking up money that would otherwise be spent on further augmenting⁴ an overbuilt capital stock.

它们表明，G7的公共债务正在吸收本该用于进一步扩张已经过度建设的资本存量上面的钱。

Insofar as the proceeds of this government borrowing are spent on health care and pensions, the elderly benefit disproportionately.

只要这种政府的举债行为的收入花在了医疗保健和养老金上面，老年人是就能不成比例地获益。

Perhaps, then, G7 public debt is diverting unfruitful efforts to provide for the future into providing for the elderly instead.

这样，G7的公共债务或许正在从毫无成效的供养未来的尝试转向供养老年人。

Several scholars, including Qian Liangxin of Anhui University, also point out that China often ploughs more into its capital stock than it earns from it.

包括安徽大学的钱良心（Qian Liangxin）在内的多位学者还指出，中国经常把比从中挣的还要多的钱投入资本存量。

At China's stage of development, this may not be a bad thing, because the economy's capital-intensity is still in flux⁵.

在中国的发展阶段，由于经济体的资本密集度仍就处于变动之中，这不可能是一件坏事。

But the combination of fast growth and repressed returns on saving may help explain why China is so prone⁶ to speculative⁷ bubbles, especially in property.

但是，快速增长和受到抑制的储蓄回报的结合就可能有助于解释为什么中国这么容易出现投机泡沫，尤其是在房地产行业。

Working-age Chinese overpay for houses, many of which stand empty, on the assumption that they will sell them at higher prices—not to a greater fool necessarily, but to a younger, richer one.

基于他们会以更高的价格把它们卖出去——不是卖给必然需要房产的更傻的人，而是卖给更年轻、更有钱的人——的假设，正处于工作年龄的中国人为许多都是空置的房产多掏了很多钱。

William Miller's proto-Ponzi scheme lasted less than a year.

威廉·米勒的庞氏骗局原型持续了不到一年。

His banks (including the Hide and Leather National Bank Of New York) closed his accounts and newspapers hounded him.

他的银行（包括Hide and Leather National Bank Of New York）关闭了他的账户，报纸对他紧追不放。

He fled to Canada (eluding one pursuer by ducking into a Chinese laundry, according to Mark Gribben of the Malefactor's Register, a blog) before the police eventually caught up with him.

在警察最后抓住他之前他曾逃往加拿大（据马克·格里本的博客Malefactor's Register，他曾经藏身一家中国洗衣店的方式躲过一位追踪人员）。

But he never actually ran out of investors⁸.

但是，实际上，他从未缺少投资者。

Even as he was escaping the country, envelopes addressed to his syndicate piled up at the post office, filled with contributions from the next generation of believers.

甚至就在他逃离这个国家之际，寄到他的辛迪加的信曾在邮局推挤成山，里面装满了来下一代信徒的出资。

1 definitive   

adj.确切的，权威性的；最后的，决定性的

参考例句：

• This book is the definitive guide to world cuisine.这本书是世界美食的权威指南。
• No one has come up with a definitive answer as to why this should be so.至于为什么该这样，还没有人给出明确的答复。

2 inefficiency   

n.无效率，无能；无效率事例

参考例句：

• Conflict between management and workers makes for inefficiency in the workplace. 资方与工人之间的冲突使得工厂生产效率很低。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• This type of inefficiency arises because workers and management are ill-equipped. 出现此种低效率是因为工人与管理层都能力不足。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 provocative   

adj.挑衅的，煽动的，刺激的，挑逗的

参考例句：

• She wore a very provocative dress.她穿了一件非常性感的裙子。
• His provocative words only fueled the argument further.他的挑衅性讲话只能使争论进一步激化。

4 augmenting   

使扩张

参考例句：

• My business was now constantly augmenting, and my circumstances growing daily easier. 现在，我的业务不断扩大，我的境况日益安逸。
• I spent a penitential weekend augmenting the green acceptable. 我临时唯有利用周末在每顶绿帽子上加一点红色上去，以免男性来宾不肯戴上。

5 flux   

n.流动；不断的改变

参考例句：

• The market is in a constant state of flux.市场行情在不断变化。
• In most reactors,there is a significant flux of fast neutrons.在大部分反应堆中都有一定强度的快中子流。

6 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

7 speculative   

adj.思索性的，暝想性的，推理的

参考例句：

• Much of our information is speculative.我们的许多信息是带推测性的。
• The report is highly speculative and should be ignored.那个报道推测的成分很大，不应理会。

8 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会