2018年经济学人 自由交流:疯狂，恐慌和ICO(2)

 

This looks like irrationality¹ in action, bound to end in tears.

这看上去想是行动方面的不理性，注定要在泪水中收场。

Why, then, should the party continue?

那么，为什么这场盛宴应当继续下去呢？

Manias² are as old as finance, and economists³ have devoted⁴ plenty of time to studying them.

狂热如金融一样古老，经济学家投入了大把的时间去研究它们。

Though often blamed on easy credit, human nature alone can goad⁵ a raging bull.

尽管经常被归罪于宽松信贷，但是，单单是人性就能够激发出一头疯牛。

As Charles Kindleberger explained in his book “Manias, Panics and Crashes”, enthusiasm for new markets or technologies frequently results in excessive optimism, which ultimately collides with reality in a spectacular crash.

正如查尔斯·金德尔伯格(Charles Kindleberger)在他的《疯狂、恐慌与崩溃》一书中所解释了的那样，对于新市场或是新技术的热情经常在过度的乐观中走向终点，最终在一场壮观的崩溃中与现实相碰撞。

That seems at odds⁶ with the idea of an efficient market, in which asset prices reflect the discounted value of expected future profits, and in which easy, risk-free money is a rarity.

这似乎有违有效市场思想。有效市场思想认为，资产价格反映的预期未来盈利的贴现价值；低息、无风险的钱是一件稀世珍宝。

But economists have learned that efficiency is a somewhat loose constraint⁷ on markets.

但是，经济学家清楚，有效是加在市场头上的一种多少有些宽松的紧箍咒。

The discounted value of dividends⁸, for instance, varies by much less over time than stockmarket indices, meaning that people's views of the state of the world gyrate more than history suggests they should.

例如，相比股市指数，红利的贴现价值更少地随时间而变化。这表明，人们有关世界状况的观点，波动地比历史所揭示的还要大。

Markets are better at setting prices for individual stocks than in aggregate—in Paul Samuelson's words, they are “micro-efficient and macro-inefficient”.

较之总体，市场更擅长给单支股票定价——用保罗·萨缪尔森的话说就是，它们是“微观有效，宏观低效”。

Yet that may be because individual stocks are more likely to provide well-informed investors¹⁰ with opportunities for a quick no-risk profit.

然而，这可能是因为单支股票更有可能给消息灵通的投资者提供快速无风险获利的机会。

The ICO craze certainly appears to entail¹¹ a departure from reasonable values.

ICO狂热无疑会导致对合理价值的背离。

Such deviations¹² can happen when taking the pessimistic side of a bet is difficult—shorting stocks, for instance (ie, selling securities the investor⁹ does not own in the hope the price will fall).

这类偏差可能在接受一项赌注的悲观面是很难的时候发生——例如，卖空股票（即带着价格将要下跌的希望卖出投资者不拥有的股票）。

In some accounts of the tech boom of the 1990s, the small float of many new tech stocks made shorting them nearly impossible; as issuance increased, however, bears could have their say, and markets tanked.

在有关上世纪90年代科技泡沫的一些报道中，许多新技术股票的微量流通股使得卖空几乎不可能；然而，随着发行增加，熊市可能有了发言权。结果，股市一泻千里。

Housing, too, is famously hard to short; in the global crisis those few financiers who found vehicles to bet against mortgage-backed securities eventually made a fortune.

房产也是出了名地难以做空；在全球危机中，发现了对赌按揭证券工具的少数几位金融大佬最终都挣了一大笔。

There are some opportunities to short cryptocurrencies, but essentially¹³ none for ICO tokens (something those intending to buy might reflect on, if reflection is their thing).

虽然存在着一些卖空加密货币的机会，但是，就各种ICO代币而言，基本上是毫无机会的（那些有意买入的人）。

1 irrationality   

n. 不合理，无理性

参考例句：

• Such stoppages as are observed in practice are thus attributed to mistakes or even irrationality. 在实际情况中看到的这些停工，要归因于失误或甚至是非理性的东西。
• For all its harshness and irrationality, it is the only world we've got. 尽管它严酷而又不合理，它终究是我们具有的唯一的世界。

2 manias   

n.（mania的复数形式）

参考例句：

• Like all manias, it needed an object of focus and an explanation. 华尔街立刻夸耀这种称之为“新纪元”的现象。 来自互联网
• But shareholders have frequently in the manias of the moment along with everyone else. 但股东常常会和其他人一样，陷入一时的狂热。 来自互联网

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 devoted   

adj.忠诚的，忠实的，热心的，献身于...的

参考例句：

• He devoted his life to the educational cause of the motherland.他为祖国的教育事业贡献了一生。
• We devoted a lengthy and full discussion to this topic.我们对这个题目进行了长时间的充分讨论。

5 goad   

n.刺棒，刺痛物；激励；vt.激励，刺激

参考例句：

• The opposition is trying to goad the government into calling an election.在野反对党正努力激起政府提出选举。
• The writer said he needed some goad because he was indolent.这个作家说他需要刺激，因为他很懒惰。

6 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

7 constraint   

n.(on)约束，限制；限制(或约束)性的事物

参考例句：

• The boy felt constraint in her presence.那男孩在她面前感到局促不安。
• The lack of capital is major constraint on activities in the informal sector.资本短缺也是影响非正规部门生产经营的一个重要制约因素。

8 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

9 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

10 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

11 entail   

vt.使承担，使成为必要，需要

参考例句：

• Such a decision would entail a huge political risk.这样的决定势必带来巨大的政治风险。
• This job would entail your learning how to use a computer.这工作将需要你学会怎样用计算机。

12 deviations   

背离，偏离( deviation的名词复数 )； 离经叛道的行为

参考例句：

• Local deviations depend strongly on the local geometry of the solid matrix. 局部偏离严格地依赖于固体矩阵的局部几何形状。
• They were a series of tactical day-to-day deviations from White House policy. 它们是一系列策略上一天天摆脱白宫政策的偏向。

13 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。