2018年经济学人 自由交流:疯狂，恐慌和ICO(3)

 

Human quirks¹ also play a role.

人类的怪癖也起到一定的作用。

Robert Shiller, who helped create the subfield now known as behavioural finance (and won a Nobel prize), reckons that ideas about markets spread like an epidemic².

曾为如今以行为金融学而出名的分支（并且获得了一次诺贝尔奖）的创建有所贡献的罗伯特·希勒指出，有关市场的观点，传播起来像是一种病毒。

At any point in time, multiple stories about the future are potentially true, and have evidence supporting or undermining them.

无论何时，关于未来的倍数故事都是潜在正确的，而且还有证据支持或者是动摇它们。

Sometimes, particular stories become infectious.

有时，个别的几个故事变得具有传染性。

Investors⁴ under their sway hear good news and are deaf to the bad - and spread the bullish bug⁵ to others.

在它们的影响下，投资者听到的是好消息，对坏消息充耳不闻——并将牛市狂热传染给他人。

An ICO may be a consequential⁶ innovation, so early entrants will make a mint.

ICO可能是一种必然的创新，因此，早期的参与者会赚到一大笔钱。

But it may be that regulators will prevent them becoming more than a curiosity (both China and South Korea have banned them).

但是，监管者将阻止它们变得超出一种稀缺物品是有可能的（中国和韩国都封杀了它们）。

Worsening news for ICOs could make pessimistic stories the next virus.

针对ICO的日渐恶化的消息可能令悲观故事成为下一个病毒。

Viral optimism may be especially common in the winner-takes-all contests so frequent within digital markets.

在数字市场内如此频繁的赢者通吃的竞争中，病毒性的乐观可能尤为常见。

Platform-based firms (which aim to provide a digital space within which other enterprises can do business) or social networks grow more valuable as they gain users.

随着它们赢得用户，（意在提供其他企业能够在其中做买卖的数字空间）的平台公司或是社交网络变得愈发值钱。

People want to be where everyone else is.

人们想有着随大流的想法。

In such cases, one of many contenders eventually dominates, and those with a stake in its success, whether shares or tokens, reap vast rewards.

在这类情况下，众多竞争者中的一个终将称霸，而那些对其成功下了赌注的人，不管是股权还是代币，收获的是巨大的回报。

But because investors lack perfect foresight⁷, the levels at which markets value nearly all contending firms will, in hindsight, appear to have been obviously bubbly.

但是，由于投资者缺乏完全的预见，市场用以为几乎所有的竞争公司进行估值的水平，事后来看，会看上去已经是明显地有泡沫了。

In the same way, the value of the winning firm, which looked laughably high during the bubble, will later look reasonable.

同样，大获全胜的公司在泡沫其间看上去高得可笑的估值，后来会看起来是合理的。

One or two of the ICOs - and cryptocurrencies themselves - stand to follow such a path, if they come into wide use.

倘若进入广泛应用，ICO中的一、二个——以及各种加密货币本身——比将走上一条这样的道路。

Think a crypto version of Google (and pity those holding tokens for crypto-AltaVista).

想想加密版的谷歌（并对可怜可怜那些持有加密版远景公司代币的人）吧。

Bursts of investor³ enthusiasm sometimes (if not always) spur experimentation⁸ and investment, laying a foundation for future growth.

投资者热情的迸发（如果不是总是如此的话），时常激发出试验和投资，为未来的增长打下基础。

Caution is needed, however.

不过，谨慎是必要的。

Markets are not perfectly⁹ efficient.

市场不是完全有效的。

But they are usually efficient enough to punish those who mistake a bet on one version of the future for a sure thing.

但是，它们通常又是有效的，足以惩罚那些误将对未来的某个版本的赌注认为是某种必然之事的人。

1 quirks   

n.奇事，巧合( quirk的名词复数 )；怪癖

参考例句：

• One of his quirks is that he refuses to travel by train. 他的怪癖之一是不愿乘火车旅行。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• All men have their own quirks and twists. 人人都有他们自己的怪癖和奇想。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

2 epidemic   

n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的

参考例句：

• That kind of epidemic disease has long been stamped out.那种传染病早已绝迹。
• The authorities tried to localise the epidemic.当局试图把流行病限制在局部范围。

3 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 bug   

n.虫子；故障；窃听器；vt.纠缠；装窃听器

参考例句：

• There is a bug in the system.系统出了故障。
• The bird caught a bug on the fly.那鸟在飞行中捉住了一只昆虫。

6 consequential   

adj.作为结果的，间接的；重要的

参考例句：

• She was injured and suffered a consequential loss of earnings.她受了伤因而收入受损。
• This new transformation is at least as consequential as that one was.这一新的转变至少和那次一样重要。

7 foresight   

n.先见之明，深谋远虑

参考例句：

• The failure is the result of our lack of foresight.这次失败是由于我们缺乏远虑而造成的。
• It required a statesman's foresight and sagacity to make the decision.作出这个决定需要政治家的远见卓识。

8 experimentation   

n.实验，试验，实验法

参考例句：

• Many people object to experimentation on animals.许多人反对用动物做实验。
• Study and analysis are likely to be far cheaper than experimentation.研究和分析的费用可能要比实验少得多。

9 perfectly   

adv.完美地，无可非议地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The witnesses were each perfectly certain of what they said.证人们个个对自己所说的话十分肯定。
• Everything that we're doing is all perfectly above board.我们做的每件事情都是光明正大的。