2018年经济学人 资产价格:全面牛市(1)

 

Leaders

领导者

Asset Prices: The bull market in everything

资产价格：全面牛市

Prices are high across a range of assets. Is it time to worry?

纵观各类资产，价格已经高高在上。到了担心的时候了吗？

In his classic, “The Intelligent Investor”, first published in 1949, Benjamin Graham, a Wall Street sage¹, distilled² what he called his secret of sound investment into three words: “margin of safety”.

在他初版于1949年的经典著作《聪明的投资者》中，华尔街圣人本杰明·格林汉姆把他称之为是他的坚实投资之秘密的东西浓缩成了四个字：安全边际（margin of safety 在英语中是三个字，转换为汉语是四个字）。

The price paid for a stock or a bond should allow for human error, bad luck or, indeed, many things going wrong at once.

付给股票或者债券的价格应当考虑到人为的错误、糟糕的运气，说白了就是祸不单行。

In a troubled world of trade tiffs³ and nuclear braggadocio⁴, such advice should be especially worth heeding⁵.

在一个贸易争端与核武口水战的乱世中，这类建议应当尤其值得听从。

Yet rarely have so many asset classes—from stocks to bonds to property to bitcoins—exhibited such a sense of invulnerability.

然而，还从没有这么多的资产类别——从股票，到债券，到房地产，再到比特币——展示出一种如此不为所动的感觉。

Dear assets are hardly the product of euphoria.

昂贵的资产几乎不是亢奋的产物。

No one would mistake the bloodless run-up in global stockmarkets, credit and property over the past eight years for a reprise of the “roaring 20s”, or even an echo of the dotcom mania⁶ of the late 1990s.

无人会把全球股市、信贷和房地产在过去8年中的这种不流血的上涨误认为是“咆哮的20年代”的再现，甚或是上世纪90年代末互联网狂热的回响。

Yet only at the peak of those two bubbles has America's S&P 500 been higher as a multiple of earnings⁷ measured over a ten-year cycle.

然而，只有在那两次泡沫的高点上，作为一个以10年期来衡量的盈利倍数，美国的标普500才是更高的。

Rarely have creditors⁸ demanded so little insurance against default, even on the riskiest⁹ “junk” bonds.

几乎没有债权人对违约，甚至是在风险最大的“垃圾”债券上，要求了这么少的保障。

And rarely have property prices around the world towered so high.

同时，世界各地的房地产价格也几乎没有这么高过。

American house prices have bounced back since the financial crisis and are above their long-term average relative to rents.

自金融危机以来，美国的房地产价格一直在反弹，相对于租金，已经高于其长期平均水平。

Those in Britain are well above it.

英国的房地产价格也远在此之上。

And in Canada and Australia, they are in the stratosphere.

而且，在加拿大和澳大利亚，它们正在同温层之中。

Add to this the craze for exotica, such as cryptocurrencies, and the world is in the throes of a bull market in everything.

再加上对于各种加密货币等新鲜事物的狂热，世界正处于全面牛市的最终阵痛之中。

1 sage   

n.圣人，哲人；adj.贤明的，明智的

参考例句：

• I was grateful for the old man's sage advice.我很感激那位老人贤明的忠告。
• The sage is the instructor of a hundred ages.这位哲人是百代之师。

2 distilled   

adj.由蒸馏得来的v.蒸馏( distil的过去式和过去分词 )；从…提取精华

参考例句：

• The televised interview was distilled from 16 hours of film. 那次电视采访是从16个小时的影片中选出的精华。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Gasoline is distilled from crude oil. 汽油是从原油中提炼出来的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 tiffs   

n.争吵( tiff的名词复数 )；（酒的）一口；小饮

参考例句：

• They had found the early tiffs become more frequent. 他们发现早期的小争执愈来愈频繁。 来自辞典例句
• The money will be paid in full by the last day of tiffs month. 截止到本月最后一天要将钱全部付清。 来自互联网

4 braggadocio   

n.吹牛大王

参考例句：

• He was disliked because his manner was always full of braggadocio.人们讨厌他，因为他老是吹牛。
• Underneath his goofball braggadocio lies a kind of purity.在他笨拙的自夸里蕴含着一丝纯洁。

5 heeding   

v.听某人的劝告，听从( heed的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• This come of heeding people who say one thing and mean another! 有些人嘴里一回事，心里又是一回事，今天这个下场都是听信了这种人的话的结果。 来自辞典例句
• Her dwarfish spouse still smoked his cigar and drank his rum without heeding her. 她那矮老公还在吸他的雪茄，喝他的蔗酒，睬也不睬她。 来自辞典例句

6 mania   

n.疯狂；躁狂症，狂热，癖好

参考例句：

• Football mania is sweeping the country.足球热正风靡全国。
• Collecting small items can easily become a mania.收藏零星物品往往容易变成一种癖好。

7 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

8 creditors   

n.债权人，债主( creditor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They agreed to repay their creditors over a period of three years. 他们同意3年内向债主还清欠款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Creditors could obtain a writ for the arrest of their debtors. 债权人可以获得逮捕债务人的令状。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 riskiest   

冒险的，危险的( risky的最高级 )

参考例句：

• With markets lately rising, the riskiest investments are finding takers. 他说，在周期高峰时，投资者会追逐风险最高的资产。
• The riskiest subprime securitieshave almost no takers. 风险最高的次级证券几乎没有人持有。