2018年经济学人 资产价格:全面牛市(2)

 

Asset-price booms are a source of cheer, but also anxiety.

资产价格牛市既是欢乐之头，也是焦虑之源。

There are two immediate¹ reasons to worry.

担心有两方面的直接原因。

First, markets have been steadily² rising against a backdrop of extraordinarily³ loose monetary⁴ policy.

首先，市场一直是在一种额外宽松的货币政策背景下稳步上涨的。

Central banks have kept short-term interest rates close to zero since the financial crisis of 2007-08 and have helped depress long-term rates by purchasing $11trn-worth of government bonds through quantitative⁵ easing.

自2007-08年金融危机以来，各家央行把短期利率维持在接近于0的水平，并且借着通过量化宽松购买价值1.1万亿美元的政府债券之机，帮助打压了长期利率。

Only now are they starting to unwind these policies.

只是在目前，它们才开始放松这些政策。

The Federal Reserve has raised rates twice this year and will soon start to sell its bondholdings.

美联储今年已经升息两次，而且不久还将卖出其债券持有。

Other central banks will eventually follow.

其他央行终将步其后尘。

If today's asset prices have been propped⁶ up by central-bank largesse⁷, its end could prompt a big correction.

如果目前的资产价格是被央行的慷慨大方所推高的，它的终结可能促成一次大调整。

Second, signs are appearing that fund managers, desperate for higher yields, are becoming increasingly incautious.

其次，渴望更高收益的基金经理们正在变得愈发不谨慎的迹象正在显现。

Consider, for instance, investors⁸' recent willingness to buy Eurobonds issued by Iraq, Ukraine and Egypt at yields of around 7%.

例如，考虑一下投资者最近购买由伊拉克、乌克兰和埃及以7%左右的收益率发行的欧元债券的意愿吧。

But look carefully at the broader picture, and there is some logic⁹ to the ongoing¹⁰ rise in asset prices.

但是，细观大局，资产价格的这种持续上涨是有逻辑的。

In part it is a response to an improving world economy.

它部分是对正在改善的世界经济的一种反映。

In the second quarter of this year global GDP grew at its fastest pace since 2010, as a recovery in emerging markets added impetus¹¹ to longer-standing upswings in Europe and America.

在今年第二季度，全球GDP以2010年以来的最快步伐增长了，这是因为新兴市场的复苏给欧洲和美国的更持久的上涨添加了动力。

As our special report this week argues, emerging-market economies have come out of testing times in far more resilient shape.

正如我们本周专题报道所言，各个新兴市场经济体已经以极具弹性的姿态走出了考验时期。

1 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

2 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

3 extraordinarily   

adv.格外地；极端地

参考例句：

• She is an extraordinarily beautiful girl.她是个美丽非凡的姑娘。
• The sea was extraordinarily calm that morning.那天清晨，大海出奇地宁静。

4 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

5 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

6 propped   

支撑，支持，维持( prop的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He sat propped up in the bed by pillows. 他靠着枕头坐在床上。
• This fence should be propped up. 这栅栏该用东西支一支。

7 largesse   

n.慷慨援助，施舍

参考例句：

• She is not noted for her largesse.没人听说过她出手大方。
• Our people are in no need of richer nations' largesse.我国人民不需要富国的施舍。

8 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

9 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

10 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

11 impetus   

n.推动，促进，刺激；推动力

参考例句：

• This is the primary impetus behind the economic recovery.这是促使经济复苏的主要动力。
• Her speech gave an impetus to my ideas.她的讲话激发了我的思绪。