2018年经济学人 自由交流:丰厚的回报(2)

 

Theirs is the first such data set to gather all of that information for so many countries over so long a period.

他们的成果是收集这么多国家在这么长的时间内的所有这种信息的第一批这样的数据集。

As such, the authors establish some new basic economic facts.

由此，作者构建出一些全新的基本经济事实。

They conclude, for instance, that over the very long run it is housing, rather than equities¹, which provides the best return : both asset types have yielded about 7% a year on average over the 145 years, but equity² returns are much more volatile³.

例如，他们断言，从长期来看，是住房，而不是股票，提供最佳回报：这两类资产在过去145年间都带来了年均7%左右的收益。但是，股票的回报具有大得多的波动性。

It is important to note that, though homeowners might cheer this news, it is not necessarily a reason to leap into the housing market.

需要指出的重要一点是：尽管房主可能为这个消息而欢呼，但是，这并不必然是跳进房产市场的一个理由。

Rental⁴ yields account for about half of the long-run return on housing, and owning a diversified⁵ portfolio⁶ of rent-yielding property is not the same bet as borrowing to house the family.

租金收益占房产长期回报的一半左右，而且拥有一个多样化的租金收益财产组合并非就是借钱让家人住上房子这样的赌注。

Besides offering these baseline findings, the authors' work helps to answer several pressing economic questions.

除了提供这些基准发现外，作者的研究还有助于回答多个紧迫的经济问题。

One example is the puzzle of declining interest rates.

一个例子是跌跌不休的利率之谜。

The falling rates of the past few decades distress⁷ some economists⁸, who worry they betoken⁹ weak growth and complicate¹⁰ central bankers' ability to manage the economy.

过去几十年间不断下跌的利率让一些经济学家困惑不已，他们担心不断下降的利率预示着疲软的增长，并且让央行银行家管理经济的能力趋向复杂。

Yet the long-run data reveal that the high rates of return on government debt seen in the 1980s were an anomaly.

然而，长期数据揭示，见之于上世纪80年代的政府债券的高回报率是一种反常。

The real return on bonds and short-term bills is normally relatively¹¹ low—and can even be negative for long periods of time—as some other economists (such as Carmen Reinhart of Harvard University and Belen Sbrancia of the IMF) have also found.

如一些其他经济学家（如哈佛大学的Carmen Reinhart 和 IMF 的Belen Sbrancia）也发现的那样，债券和短期票据的实际回报一般相对较低——而且甚至可以长期为负。

Recent declines therefore represent a return to more typical conditions.

因此，近年的下跌代表的是一种向着更为典型的情况的回归。

That, in turn, suggests that central bankers who hope to “normalise” interest rates may be in for a rude surprise.

这反过来表明，希望让利率“正常化”的央行银行家可能难免要遭遇。

1 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

2 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

3 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

4 rental   

n.租赁，出租，出租业

参考例句：

• The yearly rental of her house is 2400 yuan.她这房子年租金是2400元。
• We can organise car rental from Chicago O'Hare Airport.我们可以安排提供从芝加哥奥黑尔机场出发的租车服务。

5 diversified   

adj.多样化的，多种经营的v.使多样化，多样化( diversify的过去式和过去分词 )；进入新的商业领域

参考例句：

• The college biology department has diversified by adding new courses in biotechnology. 该学院生物系通过增加生物技术方面的新课程而变得多样化。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Take grain as the key link, develop a diversified economy and ensure an all-round development. 以粮为纲，多种经营，全面发展。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

6 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

7 distress   

n.苦恼，痛苦，不舒适；不幸；vt.使悲痛

参考例句：

• Nothing could alleviate his distress.什么都不能减轻他的痛苦。
• Please don't distress yourself.请你不要忧愁了。

8 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 betoken   

v.预示

参考例句：

• He gave her a gift to betoken his gratitude.他送她一件礼物表示感谢。
• Dark clouds betoken a storm.乌云予示着暴风雨的来临。

10 complicate   

vt.使复杂化，使混乱，使难懂

参考例句：

• There is no need to complicate matters.没有必要使问题复杂化。
• These events will greatly complicate the situation.这些事件将使局势变得极其复杂。

11 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。